Latest posts for the topic "Box Office Predictions For May 9-11"

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

Now that the recent box office is official, let's begin the predictions for this upcoming weekend. We've got two new wide releases and a limited release expanding to wide release. Let's analyze the two new ones. Speed Racer- the new film from the Wachowski Brothers strikes regular and IMAX theatres with a big cast, a boatload of merchandising and mixed early word. People have been complaining about the CGI but remember that it's based on a cartoon. Also the dialogue sounds cornball but it may mesh in the end. But facing an Iron Man holdover and possible poor word-of-mouth, it either be a Golden Compass or a Matrix Reloaded in terms of success. I'll take the conservative guess and say $30 million. Meanwhile, I might catch this on IMAX in Kansas City next weekend and see how big my uncle's college roommate (yes, Pops himself) looks on IMAX. What Happens In Vegas- yes, another dumb rom-com that the audience will eat up. But the advertising machine (running since January 18th) has been running strong and with a huge cast, the ladies will drag the men who've seen Iron Man for some punishment. In short, Cameron and Ashton still got it. $22.5 million. Meanwhile, Iron Man should do $59 million in week two thanks to excellent reviews and word-of-mouth and hold the comic book fans until The Dark Knight (and to a lesser extent, The Incredible Hulk and Hellboy II) opens. And expanding is Redbelt after a limited run in New York and Los Angeles. I should expect $3 million for the week based upon the cast and David Mamet's name. I will be seeing Redbelt this weekend with my mother and maybe the girl that I really like (a theatre fan, though one who's probably never seen any Mamet). I would have invited her to see Never Back Down last week at the second-run house (or as I like to call it, The Grindhouse) just as friends, but she was busy all week. But enough about my life, so let's talk about this week in cinema.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

Hmm, i think Iron Man will drop more than that. i would say around $49 million for week 2. Now for Speed Racer, seriously i dont know what to think some people think it'll be huge will others think it'll downright fail. So Im going to say if it exceeds expectations the most it can open with is $40 million, if it fails it'll open around $25 million. What Happens in Vegas will even though it doesnt look good it'll make lots of 'mulah'. At least $25 million opening if not more. To sum up, My guess for Top5 1. Iron Man, $49m 2. Speed Racer, Somewhere between $25-$45m 3. What Happens In Vegas, $25m 4. Made of Honor, $7m 5. Baby Mama, $5m

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

BarcaRulz — GMT

I've been hoping since i first heard about it that Speed Racer would bomb. It is looking more and more likely by the day to be honest. At first i thought it MIGHT get 1st of the week JUST on top of Iron Man, this mind you was last month. Now, i think it will be lucky to get second. I honestly don't know anyone who is half interested in it, and i think it will be lucky to have a $20 million OW. Iron Man will easily get the number 1 spot next week with around a 50% fall, grabbing another 48 million. I am hoping, and with every passing day i believe it will happen, that What Happens in Vegas gets the second spot. I believe a RomCom with Kutcher and Diaz has a good chance of toppling Speed Racer.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Kompressr — GMT

"Speed Racer" will top $25 mil purely because it's rated PG and it's summer. Where it goes from there is anybody's guess (everyone guesses a plummet down?). I think "WHIV" will be strong, around the low to mid $20s, whereas "IM" could pull of a sub-50% drop off, but only if "Speed Racer" bombs outright, say sub-$20 mil, which I think is unlikely despite the negative buzz. My predictions 1. Iron Man - $47.5 mil 2. Speed Racer - $28 mil 3. What Happens in Vegas - $23 mil 4. Made of Honor - $8 5. Baby Mama - $5

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Shryke42 — GMT

Wow, how the mighty have fallen. When I did my columns a few weeks ago, I was sure that Speed Racer would have enough gas (heh) to get to #1. Now, I'm convinced it just won't happen. I've spoken to at least ten friends who have already seen Iron Man, and it's pretty much the same across the board... "I really liked it." (Only one friend was over-the-moon "I loved it!") It's got a solid User Rating, and this is the type of movie that the teenagers will go see again. And again. And possibly again. As for WHIV, I am banking HEAVILY on this film. It's on pretty much every single one of my slates from April on. It had better do better than Maid of Honor, or I am going to be pissed. 1. Iron Man, $55 million 2. Speed Racer, $35 million 3. What Happens in Vegas, $27 million 4. Maid of Honor - $8 million 5. Baby Mama - $6 million PTA Champ - could be Iron Man again, or it could be Speed. I'm praying to squeeze a few more PTA out of Rambow before it's too late.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

numbersix_99 — GMT

Iron Man- 40mil (Almost all blockbusters take a big hit on the second weekend) Speed Racer- 35mil (some people just won't see sense) What Happens...- 13 mil (its competiting against Made of Honour, so it won't make as much) Made of Honour- 7 mil Baby Mama- 5.5 mil Redbelt- 3mil (looks like I made the right choice in picking it for Fantasy Bankrupts... it only managed 2 PTA points, and won't get any more) PTA Iron Man Speed Racer Son of Rambow What Happens Mister Lonely

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

becs — GMT

Iron Man - 55m Speed Racer - 45-50m What Happens in Vegas - 25m

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Donte77 — GMT

I am going with: Iron Man for 57-59 Mil this weekend. Speed Racer gets 40 Mil for 2nd WHIV third with a distant 28 Mil MoH will barely break 10 Mil Baby Mama 5th with about 4 Mil. Son of Rambow could pick up a few more PTA this weekend but Redbelt is done. It may make another Million BO this week but I doubt it. Noise could be in there also depending on theater count.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

J.I. — GMT

Iron Man: 50 Speed Racer: 35 (its a family film aimed heavily at kids, which would explain why you guys don't know anybody who wants to see it) What Happens in Vegas: 25

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

Iron Man will definatlety stay on top this weekend but I cannot think of a single movie of its kind that fell by less than 50%. I think it will fall by about 51-52%. X2 opened similarly and was also loved by critics and fell 54%, being a sequel frontloading was definatley an issue so Iron man should hold a little better. Although it faces a lot of competition that x2 didnt have to deal with it. Speed Raceris aimed at kids but has terrible buzz. Simply because its animated and in the summer doesnt mean it will find buisness. In 2005 Herbie fully loaded launched with a terrible 12.8 mill from over 3500 theaters in the summer when kids were out of school. I do not think Speed Racer will fall that hard but it could. I think that 20-24 mill is in order What Happens in Vegas is a movie everyone seems to think is going to be bad. On rottentomatoes its getting suprisingly good reviews so far, not that it matters because a movie like this is critic proof. There is a lot of comedy in the market right now but Vegas is in a different league. It has bigger stars, better advertising, a wider release, and a more sellable premise than Baby Mama, Made of Honor, Harold and Kumar, and Sarah Marshall. It is PG-13 as well. All those comedies faired well but none really broke out, so Vegas is still in a position to do so. It is a date movie that looks funny enough for guys (sorry made of honor) to go see (Sarah Marshall except PG13), marriage themes for the older crowd (baby mama), but anyone who saw Harold and Kumar wil prolly jst see iron man again. It has wide appeal and 2 bankable stars. Look for a debut a little below the Break Up, since Diaz and Kutcher dont have the draw of Vaughnistan back then. I say a suprise 33.1

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

aquamann2001 — GMT

The new release that I'm most excited about this weekend is The Fall directed by Tarsem the guy who directed The Cell. It looks visually amazing and I hope it gets a wider release. Predictions Iron Man 49.7 mil Speed Racer 31.3 mil What happens in Vegas 22.8 mil Made of honor 7.1 mil Baby Mama 5.3 mil

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

transformers2 — GMT

1.Iron Man 52 Mill 2.Speed Racer 24 Mill 3.What Happens In Vegas 21 Mill 4.Made Of Honor 5 Mill 5.Baby Mama 3.5 Mill

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

iamhollywood — GMT

aquamann has about the same projections as me. Iron Man's the money and Speed Racer's the bag.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

In PTA, I see Mister Lonely dropping huge. That one week was a fluke.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

silversurfer19 — GMT

Yeah, I think we should see a strong second week from Rambow, as well as Iron Man. Speed Racer could do well, and we should also see Vegas and maybe even The Visitor in PTA. 1. Iron Man 2. Rambow 3. Speed Racer 4. What Happens In Vegas 5. The Visitor BO: I can only see a second week at the top from Iron Man. 1. Iron Man - 58m 2. Speed Racer - 35m 3. What Happens in Vegas - 24m 4. Made of Honor - 8m 5. Baby Mama - 4m

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

i dont understand why everyones's top 5 has Baby Mama falling by over 60%...it will get hit by vegas but not that hard. Baby mama should see at least 5.5mill

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

JackO — GMT

I was waiting for the Tuesday numbers . . .anyways, here it goes Iron Man $47 Speed Racer $40 WHIV $30 MoH $10 Baby Mama $6.5

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

JackO wrote:

I was waiting for the Tuesday numbers . . .anyways, here it goes MoH $10

I highly doubt made of honor will only drop 30%. A 30 mill opening for vegas means a huge drop for moh

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

A_Roode — GMT

Mathematics, being my achilles heel (not, you know, literally...) I may have this totally wrong (and forgive a poor fool if I do), but I'm approaching this from a PTA rather than opening weekend gross. I don't think 'WHIV' has any hope of more than a 30 million dollar weekend. I doubt it'll do more than $20 million. A $30 million opening would be PTA of just over $9,000. Far too much competition! $20 million has a better chance since the PTA would be closer to $6,000. I'm thinking 17-18. 'Speed Racer' looks horrible but the money pumped into advertising should save it from 3rd place or lower. I just don't think 'WHIV' looks strong enough. Nothing in the faintly damning reviews released so far make me think that there is any extra kind of draw to attract people to it. I'm reading arguments for why the movie will do well, it's on a ton of my slates but my A_Roode sense is tingling: time to abandon ship.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

ashkul88 — GMT

well, Roode, i might regret this, but imo Vegas was never supposed to open above 3rd place - i mean it'd be a great bonus if it beat speed racer but no one expected it to - and i also believe that if the two open within 4-5 mil of each other, then Vegas might slip over Racer in next week's T5 order. and it costs a mere $7, which is a good price for a movie that picks up about 5 T5, 2-3 PTA, about 40-50 mil and a mediocre IMDB (4?? 5??).... again, i might regret this decision, but unless i find out Vegas is opening to less than 15 mil, i'm sticking with her.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

synestro — GMT

1. Iron Man $54 mil 2. Speed Racer $37.5 mil 3. What Happens in Vegas $22.5mil 4. Made of Honor $8 mil. 5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall $4.25 mil Got to be a little different that the maddening crowd. FSM has legs, let's see if she uses them for one more weekend.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

numbersix_99 — GMT

nickb1016 wrote:

i dont understand why everyones's top 5 has Baby Mama falling by over 60%...it will get hit by vegas but not that hard. Baby mama should see at least 5.5mill

Because from tomorrow there will be 3 chick flicks in the cinemas. Someone is going to take a big hit. I personally think it's gonna be What Happens in Vegas, but we'll see. Oh yes, we'll see.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Donte77 — GMT

Way to buck the system Synestro. I wouldn't mind if Baby Mama dropped from sight. I do have it on a slate but that was a hedge bet against good taste. I think that movie looked terrible. And if The Visitor gets any more PTA I am going to start dancing. A combination Elaine Benes dance mixed with a bit of Travolta from Pulp Fiction and a touch of Robert Carlyle's Full Monty should be sufficient to celebrate more than 12 PTA for 6 bucks. LOL 8).

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

JackO — GMT

FM's Early Friday Estimates EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES 1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $14.75M - $3,588 PTA - $141.38M cume 2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $6.5M - $1,803 PTA - $6.5M cume 3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $6.25M - $1,944 PTA - $6.25M cume 4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $2.61M - $955 PTA - $21.2M cume 5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $1.98M - $755 PTA - $36.5M cume 6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1.32M- $558 PTA - $48.2M cume 7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $1.23M - $547 PTA - $28.7M cume 8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $525,000 - $305 PTA - $46.5M cume 9. Prom Night (Sony) - $490,000 - $334 PTA - $42.2M cume 10. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $320,000 - $233 PTA - $415,000 cume 11. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $305,000 - $191 PTA - $43.2M cume 12. 21 (Sony) - $240,000 - $245 PTA - $79.8M cume *The Visitor (Overture Films) - $138,000 - $636 PTA - $1.8M cume *Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $90,000 - $588 PTA - $495,000 cume *Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $70,000 - $483 PTA - $1.1M cume *Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $31,000 - $861 PTA - $104,000 cume *Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $25,000 - $1,667 PTA - $95,000 cume *NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $18,927 - $2,103 PTA - $18,927 cume *NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $11,736 - $1,304 PTA - $11,736 cume *NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $7,201 - $379 PTA - $7,201 cume *Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $3,565 - $713 PTA - $27,000 cume *NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $1,836 - $1,836 PTA - $1836 cume *NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $1,774 - $1,774 PTA - $1,774 cume *NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $1,325 - $1,325 PTA - $1,325 cume *NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 cume *NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $988 - $494 PTA - $988 cume EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES 1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $47.67M - $11,596 PTA - $174.3M cume 2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $27.91M - $7,742 PTA - $27.91M cume 3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $23.48M - $7,305 PTA - $23.4M cume 4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $7.83M - $2,865 PTA - $26.5M cume 5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $5.84M - $2,226 PTA - $40.5M cume 6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $4.18M- $1,758 PTA - $51.1M cume 7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $3.71M - $1,640 PTA - $31.2M cume 8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $1.89M - $1,096 PTA - $47.9M cume 9. Prom Night (Sony) - $1.39M - $953 PTA - $43.1M cume 10. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $1.28M- $800 PTA - $44.2M cume 11. 21 (Sony) - $744,000 - $761 PTA - $80.3M cume 12. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $880,000 - $450 PTA - $975,000 cume *The Visitor (Overture Films) - $540,000 - $2,488 PTA - $2.2M cume *Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $380,000 - $2,484 PTA - $785,000 cume *Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $290,000 - $2,000 PTA - $1.3M cume *Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $115,000 - $3,194 PTA - $188,000 cume *Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $103,000 - $6,867 PTA - $173,000 cume *NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $67,000 - $7,444 PTA - $67,000 cume *NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $43,000 - $4,778 PTA - $43,000 cume *NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $25,000 - $1,316 PTA - $25,000 cume *Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $10,750 - $2,150 PTA - $34,000 cume *NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $6,426 - $6,426 PTA - $6,426 cume *NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $6,386 - $6,386 PTA - $6,386 cume *NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $4,704 - $4,704 PTA - $4,704 cume *NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $4,183 PTA - $4,183 PTA - $4,183 cume *NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $3,557 - $1,778 PTA - $3,557 cume Notables -Saturday will be the big deciding factor between Speed and Vegas -Iron Man looking for another clean sweep -Noise looks like a great Bankrupts pick -Vegas looks like an amazing bargain even if the numbers stay the same -Looks like a battle for the PTA ages for the last spot with Made of Honor up by a couple hundred dollars. -It will be interesting to see how BOM compares.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Shryke42 — GMT

So it looks like Son of Rambow might grab another 2 PTA points, for a total of five. Well, that makes the $12 I spent on it go down a little easier. That makes me feel a little better. Any predictions as to what IM will have by the end of May? $220? $250?

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

ashkul88 — GMT

Yeah, the PTA column looks to me like: IM Racer Vegas Rambow THE VISITOR!!??!! :x OMG heads are gonna roll for this one....and i mean random heads of people i walk past in the street on my rampage of serial killing!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.... Seriously, though, what is up with that movie??!! Just give up and DIE already!!

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

I know, compared to what Speed Racer is priced at and what its going to get, its not worth it, but i still think that it was a horrible bankrupts pick. Whoever has it is going to get 4 Top5, 4 PTA, $25ish Million. Along with 2-3 Top5, 1-2 PTA and $25 million more. As JackO said, if these numbers hold for WHIV it's still worth its price. Too bad a whole lot of people had this on their slates.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

synestro — GMT

AAAARRRRRGG! For the life of me I don't know why I didn't have The Visitor on my Apr-Jun slate. I had it in both Feb. and March leagues. Those friggin dollar $ign$ distracted me, I guess.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

JackO — GMT

Oh Snap! Take a look at Box Office Mojo Has in Store for us! Friday Estimates *Numbers in the millions Top 5 1. Iron Man - 15,3 2. What Happens in VEGAS - 6,7 3. Speed Racer -5,85 4. Made of Honor - 2,45 5. Baby Mama - 1,89

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

YEa Nikki Finke has WHIV taking second place on friday too. We'll have to see what kind of saturday bump Speed Racer and WHIV get before knowing which one will take second for the weekend. I say Speed Racer, even the bad kid movies ususally get a good saturday matinee bump. Unless it just fails miserably.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

wow even though what happens in vegas is a kind of dissapointment....i was hoping for 30mill ow...beating speed racer has to be nice.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

J.I. — GMT

Well, all the openers seem ruined. What Happens in Vegas opening below $20 million is bad. Speed Racer only making $20 million, that makes it all the worse that WHIV didn't top Speed Racer for the weekend. Redbelt's DOA. Iron Man continues rocking with $50 million which is great, just less than Spider-Man 3's 2nd weekend. Yeah, I'm looking forward to next weekend.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

I knew the whole time that Speed Racer was a bomb. Today, it had already been moved to smaller auditoriums at the theatre that I saw it the night before. And Redbelt was a victim of poor advertising and expanding it too soon. But it seems to be doing alright here.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

synestro — GMT

WhiV's IMDb user rating is at 3.6 with over 700 votes. Ouch!

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

actually vegas still has a chance to top 20mill and top speed racer. its not really what anyone was hoping for but the studios shouldnt be that upset with 18-20, thats in line with most projections and it has 2 weeks until sex and the city . meanwhile speed racer at only 18-20 is a disaster in about as bad as the golden compass.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

A_Roode — GMT

And Rotten Tomatoes has it at 26%. All the people here with it on their slates need to head on over to the iMDb and vote well for it. In a fit of idiocy, I warned everyone to be very careful if they had it on their slates ... and then forgot to take it off of my own. I'll have to make adjustments with the rest of my picks now to try and buoy my iMDb score. Unless the score comes up, I may have just cost myself every league I'm in this season.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

nickb1016 — GMT

even if it does hurt the imdb it still will give u maybe 1 or 2 pta, 8 or 9 top 10, and possibly 60mill. all that for $7 should be enough to balance it for u

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

synestro — GMT

It's actually tracking 4 PTA for this weekend, and there is an under $5 jewel to help w/ the IMDb, much like The Air I Breath helped several w/ Hannah Montana in the Jan-Mar leagues.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

In Box office, its an awesome pick for $5 dollars. I still think its a good pick in Ultimate too.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

JackO — GMT

FM's Saturday EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES 1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $21.72M - $5,285 PTA - $163.66M cume 2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $7.66M - $2,125 PTA - $13.51M cume 3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $7.03M - $2,188 PTA - $13.73M cume 4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $2.98M - $1,093 PTA - $24.11M cume 5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $2.3M - $878 PTA - $38.8M cume 6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1.51M- $636 PTA - $49.65M cume 7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $1.25M - $553 PTA - $29.89M cume 8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $891,000 - $517 PTA - $47.48M cume 9. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $504,000 - $315 PTA - $43.73M cume 10. Prom Night (Sony) - $411,000 - $281 PTA - $42.55M cume 11. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $395,000 - $304 PTA - $810,000 cume 12. 21 (Sony) - $351,000 - $359 PTA - $80.17M cume *The Visitor (Overture Films) - $268,000 - $1,235 PTA - $2.15M cume *Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $188,000 - $1,229 PTA - $683,000 cume *Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $135,000 - $931 PTA - $1.26M cume *Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $61,000 - $1,694 PTA - $165,000 cume *Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $57,000 - $3,800 PTA - $152,000 cume *NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $21,000 - $2,333 PTA - $40,000 cume *NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $14,500 - $1,611 PTA - $26,000 cume *NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $7,650 - $403 PTA - $15.000 cume *Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $5,561 - $1,112 PTA - $33,000 cume *NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $2,981 - $2,981 PTA - $4,306 cume *NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $2,717 - $2,717 PTA - $4,553 cume *NEW – Poultreygeist: Night of the Chicken Dead (Troma) - $2,453 - $2,453 PTA - $24,400 cume *NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $2,129 - $2,129 PTA - $3,900 cume *NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $1,373 - $687 PTA - $2,361 cume *NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $1,220 PTA - $1,220 PTA - $2,382 cume EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES 1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $51.79M - $12,600 PTA - $178.43M cume 2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $18.72M - $5,193 PTA - $18.72M cume 3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $17.6M - $5,476 PTA - $17.6M cume 4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $7.29M - $2,667 PTA - $25.96M cume 5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $5.57M - $2,124 PTA - $40.18M cume 6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $3.58M- $1,509 PTA - $50.53M cume 7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $3.1M - $1,373 PTA - $30.67M cume 8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $2.02M - $1,172 PTA - $48.06M cume 9. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $1.11M- $694 PTA - $44.04M cume 10. Prom Night (Sony) - $987,000 - $674 PTA - $42.75M cume 11. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $960,000 - $738 PTA - $1.05M cume 12. 21 (Sony) - $790,000 - $808 PTA - $80.3M cume *The Visitor (Overture Films) - $567,000 - $2,613 PTA - $2.31M cume *Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $391,000 - $2,556 PTA - $796,000 cume *Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $296,000 - $2,041 PTA - $1.35M cume *Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $135,000 - $3,750 PTA - $208,000 cume *Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $120,000 - $8,000 PTA - $189,000 cume *NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $54,000 - $6,000 PTA - $54,000 cume *NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $35,500 - $3,944 PTA - $35,500 cume *NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $20,000 - $1,053 PTA - $20,000 cume *Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $12,500 - $2,500 PTA - $36,000 cume *Poultreygeist: Night of the Chicken Dead (Troma) - $10,750 - $10,750 PTA - $10,750 cume *NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $6,244 - $6,244 PTA - $6,244 cume *NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $6,184 - $6,184 PTA - $6,184 cume *NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $5,287 - $5,287 PTA - $5,287 cume *NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $3,254 - $1,627 PTA - $3,254 cume *NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $3,175 PTA - $3,175 PTA - $3,175 cume

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

mooreland — GMT

If WHiV beats Speed Racer, that would sooooo make my day.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

JackO — GMT

BOM weekend estimates are in! Top 5 * numbers in the millions 1. Iron Man - 50,5 2. Speed Racer - 20,21 3. What Happens In Vegas - 20 4. Made of Honor - 7,6 5. Baby Mama - 5,766 PTA *numbers in the thousands EDITED 1. Iron Man - $12,284 2. Vegas - $6,220 3. Speed Racer- $5,604 4. Son of Rambow - $3,833 5. Mr. Lonely - $3,600 Notables -Other then Iron Man, it's another slow weekend. How disappointing. -The actuals could see some shifting between Vegas and Speed. Could be interesting. -Rambow and Mr. Lonely steal The Visitor's thunder But only by a few hundred dollars. -Redbelt bombs.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Shryke42 — GMT

Here is Box Office Mojo's first estimates for this weekend: 1. Iron Man - $50.5 M 2. Speed Racer - $20.21 M 3. What Happens in Vegas - $20 M 4. Made of Honor - $7.6 M 5. Baby Mama - $5.766 M 6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall - $3.778 M 7. Harold and Kumar - $3.155 M 8. Forbidden Kingdom - $1.9 M 9. Nim's Island - $1.325 M 10. Redbelt - $1.14 M PTA estimates (which are incomplete): 1. Iron Man - $12,284 2. Vegas - $6,220 3. Speed - $5,604 No estimates on The Visitor or Son of Rambow, which could pick up some more PTA as well.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

I hope that once actuals are in What Happens in Vegas will be second. I doubt Speed Racer will have a mother's day uptick from opening day. Moms are going to pick WHIV and Made of Honor over Speed Racer. As for it being a slow weekend, it looks like it, but really its up 15% from last year. And Wohoo! for the Visitor

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Shryke42 — GMT

PTA estimates are now in. 1. Iron Man 2. What Happens in Vegas 3. Speed Racer 4. Son of Rambow 5. Mister Loneley (just barely ahead of The Visitor)

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

mooreland — GMT

Yee-haw, go WHiV! Beating out the Speed Racer in PTA. I knew it would be worth being on my slates.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

ashkul88 — GMT

Shryke42 wrote:

5. Mister Loneley (just barely ahead of The Visitor)

well, that leaves one less headache for me....though God knows 'Visitor' gave me more than enough to last a lifetime!!

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Donte77 — GMT

That is awesome for me except in the Bankruptcy Slate. Those people that took Speed Racer just got a big help. 42 bucks for a few top 5 and 30 million bucks. Damn it is going to do worse than Nim's Island. LOL

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

Taking Speed Racer in Bankrupts was good advice!

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

I admit it. Speed Racer was a damn good Bankrupts pick

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

Now, does anyone agree with comparing it to The Golden Compass (in terms of anticipation and final result)?

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

dranscht — GMT

Nope. We all had Speed Racer pegged as a flop a mile away. With The Golden Compass, it took until much closer to the release to think that maybe it wasn't quite so hot after all.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Shryke42 — GMT

dranscht wrote:

Nope. We all had Speed Racer pegged as a flop a mile away. With The Golden Compass, it took until much closer to the release to think that maybe it wasn't quite so hot after all.

I'm too tired to look this up (hint, nudge), but didn't Compass fare MUCH better overseas, to the extend that it actually made most of its money back? Which, I think, qualifies it more of a "disappointment" than an actual flop. (And, for the record, I still enjoyed watching more than I Am Legend, if you can believe it.) As for Speed, I heard that it's total budget was around $300 million including marketing. And its first week out of the gate in the international market? Was even worse than here, according to IMDb. Another films falls victim to the second-weekend-in-May curse. I sure hope that Star Trek fares better in that slot next year! But then, it's following Wolverine, not Iron Man or Spider-Man, so maybe it can be the exception to the rule, like Troy was to Van Helsing (which also, ironically, starred Hugh Jackman). Hmm... looks like I'm already writing my column for next May, doesn't it?

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

silversurfer19 — GMT

you are quite right Shryke, I remember it did quite well over here in NZ, and I just checked and for its budget of $180m it achieved $300m foreign BO to add to its $70m US. It has also reached about $6.5m in DVD rentals as well, so really, although it didn't meet expectations, it has done ok for about $377m. I don't see Speed Racer performing that well. In total worldwide so far it has only just reached $30m. They are poor figures for a movie which has cost $120m(excluding marketing)! And shryke, I think Wolverine will do very well next year, what with the popularity of the character, Marvel and Jackman (though Deception attempts to disprove his draw) so maybe you should be a little worried for Star Trek.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

Jackman's native Australia is probably the only place where Deception made any money (opened Number Three there).

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

geezer9687 — GMT

I think the closest comparison we have to Speed Racer, as far as this game is concerned, would be Lions For Lambs. That was a movie that pretty much everyone knew would tank, yet still had a ridiculously high price tag.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

dranscht — GMT

I think Deception doesn't disprove Hugh Jackman's draw; it didn't fail because of him so much as the fact that it went through multiple title changes AND was released on the last week in April, which is always pretty much a crapshoot.

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

And to Fox, it was already a dump considering they didn't fund it (it was independently made) and only had US and Australian rights (Summit handled international rights in which they pre-sold it). So, Fox felt it wasn't a loss leading to little advertisement or word-of-mouth.

Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

undeadmonkey — GMT

I didnt see any advertisement for Deception. The only reason i knew it was coming out is because of this site and boxofficemojo

Re:Box Office Predictions For May 9-11

Buscemi — GMT

Trailers appeared on a few films (Shutter and some prints of Shine A Light), but TV spots and Internet ads were few and far between. It was overshadowed by Street Kings and What Happens In Vegas from the same studio.