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		<title><![CDATA[Latest posts for the topic "October film surprise -- what will it be?"]]></title>
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				<title>October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ October has no huge blockbusters planned. Only The Heartbreak Kid. Here are some movies up for discussion.

Dan in Real Life.......$19
Reservation Road....$4.7 - this may not be a blockbuster, but there is awards buzz for it...I think.
Michael Clayton.......$37

Now, one of these is definitely going to do better than expected. Which one will it be? Also, what some other ones that could potentially do better?

redsoxpatriot30]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 30 Sep 2007 18:16:24]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ redsoxpatriot30]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I really want Reservation Road to do good, but Dan In Real Life is getting plenty of marketing the past couple of weeks.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 30 Sep 2007 20:10:32]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ JackO]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Reservation Road seems to be getting average ratings. I'm looking forward to it as I loved the director's last film, Hotel Rwanda (plus he's a fellow Irishman), but I don't see it doing any better than the FM predictions. 

I have my doubts about Dan in Real Life- if it opens in 1500 theatres (as per Filmjerk's predictions, It won't do very well in any category)

Michael Clayton- a very medium film- average reviews, average BO intake, may get a PTA point this weekend, a Top 5 point the next- I have my doubts. ]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 03:56:25]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ numbersix_99]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <i>Dan In Real Life</i> should take in a lot of cash strictly because of the fan bases of Steve Carrel and Dane Cook.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 09:37:15]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ iamhollywood]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>iamhollywood wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote><i>Dan In Real Life</i> should take in a lot of cash strictly because of the fan bases of Steve Carrel and Dane Cook.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>

(Note, these numbers are for Season 6, Box Office league)
I ended up dropping <b>Dan In Real Life</b> from my slate because there was no good hole for a $6 movie.  $7 gives me <b>30 Days of Night</b>, $8 gives me <b>Atonement</b>.  ($7 would also give <b>We Own the Night</b>, but my hunches tell me 30 Days is a safer bet.)  I could not find any $4 - $5 movies I was happy with, so everything I plotted out had Dan getting bumped up a few bucks to something else.

If the buzz picks up for Dan, I may try to sneak it back in.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 14:35:07]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ MrHen]]></author>
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				<title>October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I think Clayton is gonna bomb. It just doesn't look that interesting.  And let's face it.  ole Georgey boy ain't making to much money here lately.  Maybe he should stop poking his high school drop out nose into the politcal area it doesn't belong and pick better movies to play in.  Besides boring casino robbing movies.
Its october.  If your looking for a suprise hit.  Look no further than the best looking horror movie for the month.  30 days of night.  could possibly be an instant classic.  probably not.  But it looks really good.  I just saw a new preview for SawIV and have to say I am now anxiously waiting for Oct.25. Too bad it won't be much of a surprise when it dominates BO that week ]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 15:56:47]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ cRAzY]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I think none of those films you listed will be succesful i think the surprise will be 30 Days Of Night i think that will be very sucessful.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 16:26:06]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ transformers2]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>MrHen wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote> my hunches tell me 30 Days is a safer bet.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>

Good decision, <i>30 Days of Night</i> will do <b>great</b>.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 19:17:15]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ iamhollywood]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <b><u>Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.</u></b>]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 1 Oct 2007 21:17:10]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ tuan69]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Me too Tuan- vamp movie with Josh Harnett.. just doesn't scream out BO success. Maybe 15 mil openeing weekend tops, no more than 40 mil in total. 

Then again, I could be wrong. I thought Res Evil 3 would be the worst opening of the films and it was the best (although its dropping pretty rapidly). I'm just assuming horror is dead after all the recent failures, but of course Halloween and 1408 performed decently]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 02:48:54]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ numbersix_99]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I think Gone Baby Gone might stand a chance.  I've heard some good word of mouth.  I just wish everyone didn't hate Ben Affleck so much...give the guy a chance, I say!  :D ]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 05:26:33]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Lovely]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <b><u>Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.</u></b>]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 07:20:57]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ tuan69]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>tuan69 wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote><p></p>

		<cite>Lovely wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote>I think Gone Baby Gone might stand a chance.  I've heard some good word of mouth.  I just wish everyone didn't hate Ben Affleck so much...give the guy a chance, I say!  :D &nbsp;
		</blockquote>

Who hates him? He was awesome in the cinematic masterpiece Armageddon.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>

Personally, I like Affleck.  He took some hits with some of his more recent film choices though.  And his pre-Jennifer Garner period gave him alot of bad press.  It kind of made him look not so bright.

His agent should have been canned...but alas, the public has a very long memory for failures, doesn't it?

Some of that rubbish might make audiences think twice about seeing a film he directed.  Might.

I hope not, though.  It looks like a good film--I'm going to see it.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 10:35:19]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Lovely]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Ben Affleck is a terrible actor.. with a butt chin.. and he rode Matt Damon's skills for a very long time and his "failures" started when he decided to head off on his own.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 12:08:30]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ becs]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Please tell me you <i>meant</i> for that to be a South Park reference...]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 12:38:41]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ dranscht]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Yes, <i>30 Days of Night</i> will be a hit. I knew that... So, is the consensus that <i>Michael Clayton</i> will be like <i>Shoot 'Em Up</i>? Will <i>Dan in Real Life</i> get around 30-35 million total? And <i>Reservation Road</i>...what's up w/that movie? Anyways, I think I know what to do now.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 19:32:17]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ redsoxpatriot30]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ becs, I half agree with your point on where Ben Affleck's career hit the high water mark.  I do agree that his best performances were when he and Damon had their careers more intertwined, but I disaggree with oyu in thinking he is a bad actor.  I don't think he is a great actor by any means, but I always felt he was an actor born in the wrong era.  I think he would have made a strong leading man in the '40s or '50s.  He has enough acting skill, enough charm, and enough political savvy he probably would have been perfect for the studio system.

I always thought he had the talents and looks of a A lister and the heart and desire of an indie player, therefore satisfying no one.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 2 Oct 2007 19:58:48]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ jameydunne]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>Lovely wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote>I think Gone Baby Gone might stand a chance.

Yes! I think Gone Baby Gone will be the surprise hit...I'm saying 50m.  Dan in Real Life might do OKAY but not GREAT by any means...and 30 Days of Night would have done amazing had it not come out so damn long after we first heard about it i think the hype is dying for it.

WHOA WHOA WHOA!!!

Terrible actor?
Matt Damon's skills?

I don't even know how to respond to that other than by saying you severely misinformed on both counts!]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Wed, 3 Oct 2007 19:08:56]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ StnMan5]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I messed up my quoting...i'm just doing it by myself next time someone says something i agree with.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Wed, 3 Oct 2007 19:11:30]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ StnMan5]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Yes! For sure,<i> Gone Baby Gone</i> has the potential to be an amazing film and don't let the name 'Affleck' throw you off. <b>Casey Affleck</b> is an amazing actor and can prove it where as <u>Ben</u> might be outdated. My pre-prediction for how I think GBG will do is probably an 8.7/10 (A-)]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Thu, 4 Oct 2007 15:13:40]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ iamhollywood]]></author>
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				<title>October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I wouldn't say ben is a bad actor.  He has some good movies.  and some bad ones.  I haven't really seen casey in anything that I can think of.  But I hear good things.  He'll have to be pretty darn good to move ahead of Ben in my book though.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Fri, 5 Oct 2007 15:42:47]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ cRAzY]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ You might've seen Casey Affleck in any of the Ocean's movies, or maybe 'The Last Kiss?']]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Fri, 5 Oct 2007 16:44:35]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ dranscht]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ He's been in a few movies I've seen: <i>Oceans, Commited, Last Kiss</i>, and <i>Lonesome Jim</i> [indie]. Apparently he plays a coward in <i>Jesse James</i> so I'm interested in seeing how he does with that. But, I truly believe <i>Gone Baby Gone</i> will prove to be his breakout role. He'll leave behind the days of '<u>supporting actor</u>' come <b>October 19</b>.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Fri, 5 Oct 2007 18:11:19]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ iamhollywood]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ uhh, i think he just worked with brad pitt and stole the show in Jesse James....i think that breakout role is expanding to theatres near you pretty damn soon.... :D]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 10:01:56]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ ashkul88]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ ...And, speaking of <b>Casey Affleck </b>and <i>The Assassination of Jesse James</i>, I should be posting my <u>own</u> review of the film here within the next day or so.  Suffice to say, it <u><i>won't</i></u> be a blockbuster, nor ought it be among the year's Best Picture nominees, no matter the early (<i>and </i>late) hype piled upon this title by a certain overzealous and undiscriminating rat...  [Ahem]


I remain, as always...


Nico.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 11:07:31]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Nicodemus]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>StnMan5 wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote><p></p>

		<cite>Lovely wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote>I think Gone Baby Gone might stand a chance.

Yes! I think Gone Baby Gone will be the surprise hit...I'm saying 50m.  Dan in Real Life might do OKAY but not GREAT by any means...and 30 Days of Night would have done amazing had it not come out so damn long after we first heard about it i think the hype is dying for it.

WHOA WHOA WHOA!!!

Terrible actor?
Matt Damon's skills?

I don't even know how to respond to that other than by saying you severely misinformed on both counts!&nbsp;
		</blockquote>



 :shock: That doesn't sounf like me...have I been sleep-posting again?  :lol: ]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 11:47:04]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Lovely]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ After seeing the Rock lead the BO for 2 straight weeks, I am going to go out on a limb and say that no October movie will top 50 million. Yes, there might be some well regarded movies coming out, like <i>Clayton</i> and <i>30 days</i> but it just doesn't seem to be working out. <i>Gone Baby Gone</i> looks like it will be pretty good but I doubt that people will be flocking to the theatre . This might be an October to forget . . . .all in preparation for the huge holiday season. 

Out of all the movies I think <i>Clayton</i> will do the best followed by <i>Saw 4/30 Days</i>, then<i> Reservation/Gone Baby</i>, and<i> Dan</i>. 

]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 12:04:24]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ JackO]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ You might be right, <b>Jack0</b>...  Just curious, but how do you see <i>Lizardbreath: The Golden Age</i>, <i>We Own the Night</i>, <i>Comebacks</i>, <i>Darjeeling Limited </i>and <i>Rendition </i>ending up? 


I remain, as always...


Nico.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 12:11:12]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Nicodemus]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Well next weekend. Tyler Perry film is already predited to own the weekend. Like all of perry film is will do very well because of his fanbas. We own the night will make about 11 million. The Golden Age reviews are killling that film 5-8 at the most.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 14:28:17]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ filmboy]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <p></p>

		<cite>Nicodemus wrote:</cite><br>
		<blockquote>You might be right, <b>Jack0</b>...  Just curious, but how do you see <i>Lizardbreath: The Golden Age</i>, <i>We Own the Night</i>, <i>Comebacks</i>, <i>Darjeeling Limited </i>and <i>Rendition </i>ending up? 


I remain, as always...


Nico.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>

 :D  Lizard Breath! I forgot about Elizabeth. probably because I was sleeping during the trailer. I take a step back and agree with Mr. Mason's prediction that Lizbeth part Deux will not be able to live up to the lofty heights of it's predecessor.  We Own, as I wrote a little before looks like a remake of a remake. I don't know if people actually care about that but it just doesn't seem that interesting to me anymore. The Comebacks will fail. Which is unfortunate because David Kochner should be able to have a BO success one of these days. Now I am high on Darjeeling Limited and judging by the IMDB scores and PTA, many others are as well. I had no idea it was going wide so if anything, that should in a perfect world, get some money. Too bad it will only be for 4 days. Anyways, that film out of all the October releases has the legs to get some cash. Finally, We just might experiencing war fatigue already, with the collapse of the Kingdom. It's not to say Rendition is a bad movie, in fact it looks alright. It hasn't been critically appraised however so that will hurt it as well.

Anyways

New Ranks   

1. Clayton

2. LizardBreath Part Deux, Saw 4, 30 Days, Darjeeling (cumulative box)

3. We Own

4. Reservation/ Gone Baby

5. Dan/ Tyler Perry's Dumb Movie

6. Rendition


 . . .

1,000,000. The Comebacks]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 7 Oct 2007 17:32:05]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ JackO]]></author>
			</item>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <b><u>Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.</u></b>]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 00:02:27]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ tuan69]]></author>
			</item>
			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ The Comebacks is going to make a lot more than 1 million.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 04:57:46]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ transformers2]]></author>
			</item>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I believe he meant that it'd be RANKED one millionth on whatever list he was making.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 07:20:37]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ dranscht]]></author>
			</item>
			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ The October film surprise is that no film will do any good- what a miserable month]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 10:42:29]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ numbersix_99]]></author>
			</item>
			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <blockquote>The October film surprise is that no film will do any good- what a miserable month&nbsp;
		</blockquote> 
[Nodding]  Though that <u><i>SOUNDS</i></u> like sarcasm (Quick!  The Ronco Irony Detector!  <b>[BEEP]  [BEEP]  [BEEP]</b>), I'm beginning to think this is going to end up one of, if not the most, astute comments of all about October.  <b>Six</b>, you been reading my chicken entrails?  [Laughing]  


I remain, as always...


Nico.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 13:00:02]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Nicodemus]]></author>
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			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ The more I keep reading the words "October Surprise", the more it sounds like a nasty baked-good at your high school cafeteria. Ick.  :shock:]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 14:16:40]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ la_resistance28]]></author>
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			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <blockquote>The more I keep reading the words "October Surprise", the more it sounds like a nasty baked-good at your high school cafeteria. Ick.  &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
LOL!  The point being, <b>vive</b>, perhaps, that "October Surprise" is served in high school cafeterias... in <i><b>mid-December</b></i>.  



I remain, as always...  (Hey, the meatloaf's <i><b><font color='green'>green</font></b></i>, just like the Jell-O!   Surprise!)



Nico.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 14:39:33]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Nicodemus]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Yeah, it looks as though the biggest movie of october actually opened in september. I mean, I figured the game plan would do well. But it's momentumisn't really slowing as much as I though it would.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 19:08:58]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ StnMan5]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <b>StnMan5</b>, what you said there reminded me of my comments in the "<b>What will 'rule' September?</b>" thread, way back at the end of August...


<blockquote>...I suspect one or two of September's biggest films may actually open the last three days in <i>August </i>. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>



For those interested to see my prognosticatory abilities revealed as fraud, myth, or fantasy, here's more of what I had to say, and how I fared...


<u>The Good</u>:


<blockquote><i>The Kingdom </i>is one of my personal top three most-anticipated films of the year, but I wonder if Iraq fatigue will hurt this film's chances. Not to put too fine a point on it, but this film could be anything from a $20M bomb to a $100M blockbuster. I'll be conservative, though, and call it for <b>$50M</b>, with lots of potential. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
There's lots of time left, and <i>Kingdom</i>'s already north of $31 million, with potentially a third week in the Top 5 still to come.  <b>$50 million </b>looks like a sure thing, and everything else is gravy.


<blockquote><i>Halloween </i>(2007), God help me, might actually make a splash...  [with] <b>$60M</b>.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
<i>Michael Myers Rising </i>looks to finish up just short of <b>$58 million</b>.


<blockquote><i>Into the Wild</i> might be a stunner. It will nab fantastic reviews and may be one of the top PTA films of the year, period. I'll say <b>$25M</b>, <b>10 PTA</b>, and (heh) climbing. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
<i>Wild</i>'s still on its way up, but I really, really doubt it will pass <b>$12 million</b>.  On the other hand, <i>Wild </i>has rung up (as of this past weekend) <b>9 PTA </b>points, and has a monster <b>IMDb</b> rating of <b>8.6</b>.


<blockquote><i>In the Valley of Elah</i> might do <b>$5M</b> with <b>a handful of PTA points</b>. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
<i>Valley</i>'s shadow is already lengthening, at $5.3 million, but it's going to outdistance my predictions by a bit, and with an early-'08 push as <b>Tommy Lee Jones </b>prepares his Oscars speech, this film might well end up north of <b>$10 million</b>.  And it earned <b>3 PTA points</b>, which qualifies as a "handful" in <u><i>my</i></u> book.  


<blockquote><i>In the Shadow of the Moon </i>might snare <b>some PTA</b>, too, but <b>no more than 4</b>, total. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Try half that: <b> 2 PTA</b>.  Total.


<blockquote><i>Dragon Wars</i>...looks to be written by a ninth-grade DM whose favorite films are <i>Armageddon</i>, <i>Godzilla </i>(yes, THAT one) and <i>Reign of Fire</i>. Please. This might as well have been called...Errorgon... <b>$25M might be <u>extremely</u> generous</b>. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
I always say, <i>You can't polish a turd</i>.  In fact, it might be my motto, if I had a motto.  <b>$12-$13 million</b>, and Freestyle Releasing ought to be grateful for that.


<blockquote>If <i>The Brave One</i>...makes $40M I'll be very, very surprised. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
It's just about out of the Top Ten at $34 million, but it <i><u>might</u></i> squeak past <b>$40 million</b>.  Just.


.<blockquote>..<i>Pigs on Bikes</i>, or whatever the Hell that film was earlier this year, grossed, what, $200M? ...I'll predict <b>$35M </b>for <i>Mr. Woodcock</i>. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Billy Bob Thornton's latest dope-us is at $22 million, and, mercifully, winding down.  Call it <b>$30, $32 million</b>, tops.


<u>The Bad</u>:


<blockquote><i>3:10 to Yuma</i>... is the slam-dunkiest prospect of...all; only fair-to-poor reviews will keep this entry under $60M. Still, even for a bevy of A-list celebrity millionaire playboys, $100M is pushing it. Call it <b>$85M</b>, and I hope I'm low-balling it. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Money's still trickling in (about $49 million, with a few million still out there), but at this point, <b>$60 million </b>may be "pushing it."  Maybe a couple Oscar noms will warrant a late-season push or rerelease.  But it'll be too, too late for <u><i>THIS</i></u> game...  


<blockquote>I'll not be surprised if [<i>Balls of Fury</i>] does <b>$75M</b>...&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
[<i><b><u>BZZZT</u>!</b></i>]  Fury's all done, with not even half that, at <b>$32 million</b>.


<blockquote><i>Resident Evil: Extinction</i>, I think, could be the highest-grossing of the series...  Call it <b>$70M</b>, but I could be $10-$15M low on this one...&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Um, yeah.  Well, I was probably right about it being the trilogy's top earner (<i>Apocalypse</i>'s mark was $51 million) but, with only $43 million in the bank, odds [heh] are that <i>Extinction</i>'s already earned 70% or better of its ultimate total.  It's still in the Top 5, but I'm going to call it for about <b>$55 million </b>right now.


<blockquote><i>Good Luck Chuck</i>, I think, has all the makings of a slightly less profitable version of <i>Knocked Up</i>; I'll call it for $65M...it could go higher if women turn out the way they did for the <b>Judd Apatow </b>film. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Forget it, it's already out of the Top 5 and not even over $30 million yet.  Call it <b>$42 million</b>.  Lightning rarely strikes twice.


<blockquote>...<i>Death Sentence</i>, sorry to say, is D.O.A. [at] <b>$25 million</b>.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
<b>Kevin Bacon</b>'s attempt at channeling <b>Charles Bronson </b> was cold almost before it opened.  It's got <b>$9 million </b>and no appeals left.


<blockquote><i>The 11th Hour</i>...may do as much as <b>$20M</b> with continued media interest and a slow, deliberate rollout; and it's guaranteed <b>7 PTA points</b>, minimum.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
That's what I get for guaranteeing, though <i>An Indifferent Truth </i><u><i><b>did</b></i></u> manage <b>5 PTA points </b>in a single, glorious weekend.  This high-concept vanity project got that "slow, deliberate rollout," all right, but fizzled at well <b>under $1 million</b>.  We hit the snooze bar, I guess.


<blockquote><i>Self-Medicated</i> will make a modest splash for <b>a couple PTA points</b>, I think. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Errrrrm...  No.



<u>The Ugly</u>:


<blockquote>Westerns, on the other claw, I know. <i>Jesse James </i><u><i><b>COULD</b></i></u> be <i>Unforgiven</i>, or, on the other hand, it <u><i><b>COULD</b></i></u> be... <i>Wyatt Earp</i>...  Call it <b>$65M</b>. It will deserve better...&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
No, it <u>definitely</u> won't be <i>Unforgiven</i> (<b>$101 million</b>).  Neither, I think, will it be <i>Wyatt Earp </i>(<b>$25 million</b>).  Although at one point I was calling for this film to top $90 million, I think <b>$9 million </b>might be more likely at this point.  Clearly, I don't know what I know, y'know?


<blockquote><i>The Jane Austen Book Club</i>, <i>Bordertown </i>and <i>The Darjeeling Limited </i><b>could figure</b>, also, <b>but not much</b>.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
Well, I think I nailed <i>Jane </i>(1 PTA, minimal profitability), and <i>Bordertown</i>'s been delayed.  So far, so good... But <i>The Darjeeling Limited</i>'s already <b>a PTA monster</b>, at <b>9 points and counting</b>.  All aboard!


<blockquote><i>The Game Plan</i>...  will likely earn <b>$45M</b>. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
"<i>This craptastic piece of shite</i>" earned that in less than two weeks.  It's bound for $65-$70 million.  Perhaps more.  I continued:  "<i>If this movie becomes the biggest hit of the month I shall shoot myself in the head with something. Like, a harpoon, or a TASER, or a SABO round, maybe.</i>"  Stay tuned.  ("<i>Don't <b>tase</b> me, erm, <u><b>me</b></u>!</i>")


I also predicted that <i>Transformers </i>in IMAX would earn "<b><i>another $25M, easy, perhaps more.</i></b>"  Um, yeah.  That Kool-Aid tastes fine, by the way.



<u>Too Close to Call</u>:


Later on I'd forecast a cool $73 million for <i>Across the Universe</i>, but here's what I said six weeks ago:  

<blockquote><b>$15M</b>, easy...it could go as high as $25M. And it will snare at least <b>12 PTA points</b>, guaranteed.&nbsp;
		</blockquote>
We're at better than $8 million, and its big mainstream push is still a few days away.  But <b>PTA</b>'s almost certainly done at <b>6 points</b>.  



Finally...


<blockquote>...I seriously doubt any of this month's offerings will actually cross the $100M threshhold. &nbsp;
		</blockquote>
So far, <i>Resident Evil: Extinction </i>and <i>The Game Plan </i>are neck-and-neck, at $43 million, and <i>Resident Evil</i>'s all done.  Nobody else comes close, or likely, will.  <i>The Game Plan </i>is going to be a solid hit, no question, but it looks like that prediction, at least, is money.


...And, just for the record, when I said, "<i>one or two of September's biggest films may actually open the last three days in </i>August," I was pretty much on the mark.  <i>Halloween</i> (2007) is at $57 million, $46 million of that coming in September; and <i>Balls of Fury </i>earned more than $26 million of its current $32 million total this past month.   


I remain, as always...


Nico.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Mon, 8 Oct 2007 23:56:48]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ Nicodemus]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ <b><u>Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.</u></b>]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 9 Oct 2007 00:23:03]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ tuan69]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Tuan, you're becoming the E! of these FM boards]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 9 Oct 2007 02:10:35]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ numbersix_99]]></author>
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				<title>October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I think the comebacks will do rather well.  Remember how frickin awesome wedding crashers was/is.  It'll could be one of the bigger movies of the month.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 9 Oct 2007 14:39:40]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ cRAzY]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Just because it's 'from the producers of Wedding Crashers' doesn't mean it will even come close. Remember advertising Date Movie as 'from two of the writers of Scary Movie?' And that turned out to be a steaming pantload.

I don't doubt that The Comebacks will make money, but 20% of what Wedding Crashers made is about its limit, I think.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 9 Oct 2007 20:10:07]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ dranscht]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ The biggest movie to open in October should be Saw 4.  Michael Clayton is not going to be as huge as people think.  There is not too much out there and nothing will come close to hitting the $100 million mark.  Saw 4 should open large and then drop quickly, but its competition really isnt there.  It should be the month's biggest box office producer, It will not really be strong in any other category however.  ]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Tue, 9 Oct 2007 20:15:36]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ geezer9687]]></author>
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				<title>October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Of course its go no competition.  Nobodys retarted enough to release anything near it.  Especially around halloween.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Fri, 12 Oct 2007 12:42:38]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ cRAzY]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ I really, realy, really want to say Gone Baby Gone will be the surprise hit, but I would just be kidding myself. Casey Affleck deserves the big break though. I can see some Oscar nods in the future. Saw 4 will do well, no surprise. I definately see it beating 30 days of night.]]></description>
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				<pubDate><![CDATA[Fri, 12 Oct 2007 19:22:08]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ csauve789]]></author>
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				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ Look like that movie was Tyler Perry's new film




FM Friday #'s - Tyler Perry wins going away 
Wow. I didn't see this coming. 

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES 
1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $8.65M - $4,301 PTA - $8.65M cume 
2. NEW – We Own the Night (Sony) - $3.75M - $1,588 PTA - $3.75M cume 
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $3.7M - $1,474 PTA - $4.7M cume 
4. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $3.2M - $1,023 PTA - $51.1M cume 
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $2.3M - $711 PTA - $20.8M cume 
6. NEW – Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $2.2M - $1,099 PTA - $2.2M cume 
7. The Kingdom (Universal) - $1.29M - $458 PTA - $36.6M cume 
8. Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.12M - $1,175 PTA - $10M cume 
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $710,000 - $316 PTA - $46.1M cume 
10. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $586,000 - $301 PTA - $31.3M cume 
11. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (Fox) - $578,000 - $183 PTA - $5.5M 
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $432,000 - $237 PTA - $50.4M cume 
*Feel the Noise (Sony) - $417,000 - $409 PTA - $4.1M cume 
*Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $282,000 - $2,972 PTA - $1.35M cume 
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $240,000 - $1,569 PTA - $3.2M cume 
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $210,000 - $584 PTA - $317M cume 
*NEW - The Final Season (Yari Film Group) - $200,000 - $198 PTA - $200,000 cume 
*Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $135,500 - $1,760 PTA - $785,000 cume 
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $101,420 - $622 PTA - $1M cume 
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $101,000 - $139 PTA - $6M cume 
*NEW - Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) - $25,760 - $3,680 PTA - $25,760 cume 
*NEW – Sleuth (Sony Classics) - $11,169 - $1,241 PTA - $11,169 cume 
*NEW – King Corn (Balcony Releasing) - $3,086 - $3,086 PTA - $3,086 cume 

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES 
1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $25.3M - $12,581 PTA - $25.3M cume 
2. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $12.3M - $3,932 PTA - $60.2M cume 
3. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $11.4M - $4,540 PTA - $12.4M cume 
4. NEW – We Own the Night (Sony) - $11.2M - $4,742 PTA - $11.2M cume 
5. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $7.3M - $2,258 PTA - $25.8M cume 
6. NEW – Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $7M - $3,498 PTA - $7M cume 
7. The Kingdom (Universal) - $4.36M - $1,539 PTA - $39.7M cume 
8. Across the Universe (Sony) - $3.47M - $3,642 PTA - $12.3M cume 
9. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $2.59M - $1,152 PTA - $48M cume 
10. The Seeker: The Dark is Rising (Fox) - $1.99M - $630 PTA - $6.9M 
11. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $1.93M - $993 PTA - $32.6M cume 
12. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $1.5M - $829 PTA - $51.5M cume 
*Feel the Noise (Sony) - $1.37M - $1,349 PTA - $5.1M cume 
*Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $940,000 - $9,896 PTA - $2M cume 
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $864,000 - $5,647 PTA - $3.8M cume 
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $841,000 - $2,336 PTA - $317.6M cume 
*NEW - The Final Season (Yari Film Group) - $540,000 - $534 PTA - $540,000 cume 
*Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $475,000 - $6,169 PTA - $1.1M cume 
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $359,000 - $495 PTA - $6.2M cume 
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $355,000 - $2,178 PTA - $1.3M cume 
*NEW - Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) - $93,000 - $13,286 PTA - $93,000 cume 
*NEW – Sleuth (Sony Classics) - $41,000 - $4,556 PTA - $41,000 cume 
*NEW – King Corn (Balcony Releasing) - $10,801 - $10,801 PTA - $10,801 cume 

]]></description>
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				<link>http://www.fantasymoguls.com/forum/posts/list/411.page#6461</link>
				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sat, 13 Oct 2007 03:21:56]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ filmboy]]></author>
			</item>
			<item>
				<title>Re:October film surprise -- what will it be?</title>
				<description><![CDATA[ damn you tyler perrrryyyyy!!!! i was hoping the surprise hit would be we own the night or 30 days but apparently, tyler perry fans have other ideas!!!!]]></description>
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				<link>http://www.fantasymoguls.com/forum/posts/list/411.page#6557</link>
				<pubDate><![CDATA[Sun, 14 Oct 2007 12:04:33]]> GMT</pubDate>
				<author><![CDATA[ ashkul88]]></author>
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