Latest posts for the topic "Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers"

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

silversurfer19 — GMT

Right, there has been a discussion going on in the regulars league and Ash proposed that it may be better to divert the topic to the main forum page to get a bigger discussion. The debate we were having was to whether our slates would benefit more from monster blockbusters or a series of mid range movies. To clarify, Ash has Iron Man on his slate as well as Indy, becs has gone with Narnia and Wall-E, while I have Indy combined with The Incredible Hulk, Get Smart and Zohan. After getting stung on more than one occassion from blockbusters in the past year (combo of Pirates/Spidey 3, Cloverfield, Semi Pro), I have decided that picking mid range movies for the same price offer more breathing space in case of disaster. Ash felt that Iron Man would gain more points and BO and leave him the space on his slate for some cheap picks. I guess its good that this season has offered so many alternatives compared to previous months, meaning that scores can really be very diverse. What does everyone else think about mid range choices vs blockbuster priced movies?

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Buscemi — GMT

If you want to win in the big months, take the blockbusters. In small months (when Cloverfield and Semi-Pro came out), anything came happen. Since this is a big month, take blockbusters. Meanwhile, I took the upcoming Murderers' Row lineup (Indy, Wall-E and Batman) in several lineups and Iron Man in a few others.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

silversurfer19 — GMT

Well i thought the same thing last year, Buscemi, and went with Spidey 3 and Pirates 3. I ended up finishing 15th! I just think by going with two monster blockbuster priced movies, it leaves you with options like Henry Poole, The Strangers etc, I would not want them on my slate. The will pick up few (if any PTA), no BO and no top 5s. And will probably have low imdbs. I just think going for mid range movies offer you better options and a more even slate.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

A_Roode — GMT

A friend of mine operates under the $2 theory (and has been wildly successful against unwitting amateurs). He'll take three big monster films and fill out the rest of his slate with $2 films that are expected to do no more than prevent him from scoring 0's in iMDb. This generally allows him to win box office, be very competitive in top 5 and pta and reasonably successful in iMDb. He generally finishes in the upper table of the league where he plays and is very content to continue doing so. As I mentioned above, this strategy is particularly effective against newer players who who don't know better or those with a pathological need to 'outscore him.' They won't, they don't, they lose. Every time. That strategy works just fine until he plays more seasoned opposition. Game theory and common sense prevent me from explaining why I think he fails miserably against experienced competitors in both minor and major leagues.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I was curious about this myself so I made 1 actual slate and 2 experimental slates for the March-May season. The first slate I chose a standard pick (according to my judgement). It had Paranoid Park, Horton, Iron Man, Sarah Marshall, Street Kings, etc. This slate is 2nd currently and has a 98% right now. The 1st Experiment was all midrange movies. Horton, Baby Mama, Leatherheads (bomb), Sarah Marshall, SOP, Vegas, Smart People. Obviously two of these movies underperformed (cough*Smart People*cough) and this slate is 3/50 with an 83%. The 2nd Experiment was the blockbuster slate with Iron Man AND Indiana Jones plus 23 bucks worth of tiny movies (Mr. Lonely, Street Kings, Sarah Marshal, Shutter, DrillBit Taylor (bomb), and Deception. This slate is currently 10/50 with a 61% but still has a month of IM and 2 weeks of Indy. Once the final numbers are done at the end of the season I can check my exact numbers for the 4 categories but I think the mixed bag is going to win out. I do not think weighing heavily towards one of the other has any advantages. The blockbusters will kill a slate if they underperform but can rake in the points when they do well. The mid-range provides great flexibility since you do not have 1/3 of your money tied up in one movie. If one bombs (smart People) then you still have 80-90 bucks to make up for it.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

good of you to bring it out here SS.... now let me begin by saying that in most summers, i would have done the exact same thing as SS....last year for example (if it hadn't been my first slate ever), i would have gone with bourne, rush hour 3 et al instead of transformers and $40-something amongst 7 other movies.... but this year is different IMO, mainly because the blockbusters seem very reasonably priced to me....i'd pick Iron Man for $39-40 anyday if it opened to $100 mil and carried on to make about $300 mil, 17+ T5, 9+ PTA and an 8.4 UR....on the other hand, SS has gone the mid-range route and picked up Get Smart, Hulk and Zohan, and my argument was that if even one of them bombs (and I think Hulk will) they won't be able to match my Iron Man and my bonus is that I can add 2 more prestige movies that'll pick me up some PTA and give me some more good UR's.... so there.... that's what went through my head.... so to round up, i guess what i want a prediction on is whether the Iron Man +2 prestige picks (at this point, Mr Lonely & Savage Grace/Edge of Heaven) will work better or whether the 3 mid-range picks a la Get Smart, Hulk, Zohan will fare better.... in most summers, i'd be right there beside SS, but i believe this summer could be different (at least this season, with the modest prices on IM and Indy) PS>> something i neglected completely to mention is that pretty much everyone i know (exaggeration, but not much) has Indy, so that really isn't an advantage any more, but if it opens to the $100-130 mil that i'm hearing from (not industry insiders, but not the least reliable either) sources, then the only difference it'll make is to become a disadvantage to those who don't have it....

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Shryke42 — GMT

In the May 2007 Box Office Leagues, no one with any of the May Monsters even finished in the Top 3. The winning slate looked like this: Transformers ($33) Knocked Up ($17) Ocean's 13 ($18] Chuck & Larry ($12) Die Hard 4 ($10) 1408 (an inexplicable $2) Mr. Brooks ($3) 28 Weeks Later ($4) In this league, Ratatouille ($33), Harry Potter ($28], and Simpsons ($6) were also bargains, even though they all came out in the third month. I was convinced you couldn't win without the May Monsters, which were priced thus: Spider Man 3 - $57 Shrek the Third - $63 Pirates 3 - $64 Which is just so patently ridiculous, in hindsight. However, this summer's blockbusters are priced much more reasonably (except Speed Racer), which makes things much more interesting.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

synestro — GMT

IMO ash hits the nail on the head a couple of times when he writes of (a) one of the mid-rangers bombing and (b) adding "prestige" movies to a blockbuster. There are normally a few $2-$4 jewels that have a not so appealing IMDb rating on FM, but if you investigate a little, you'll hear a different song being sung by the IMDb raters. As far as bombs go, a potential blockbuster can bomb just as easily as a mid-range film, although the "blockbuster" variety can usually be sniffed out a little easier. The more mid-range hits you put on your slates, the more chances you have of being burned.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

JackO — GMT

I like the blockbuster route. Sure it can burn ya, but as has been previously stated, if all goes well in the blockbuster state, then the door is open for highly touted PTA prospects. Now for Box Office, it's all about money so getting as much money for as little money as possible is the best bet. That's what made Step Up 2 and Hannah vault me up so highly in round 2 even though I took a catnap in March.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

thanks synestro, we see eye-to-eye it seems.... however, there is no right or wrong here and things might turn out not-so-rosy for me if Hulk, Smart and Zohan all take off....i guess IMO this summer's blockbusters, as Shryke pointed out, are just priced much more reasonably, which makes them great buys.... speaking of Shryke, what's your opinion bud?? get off the fence and tell us which way you're leaning....i'd just take a look at your slates, but i'm too lazy.... :D

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I wasn't around for the insanely priced movies of last summer but I can see why they would not allow much leeway. Especially with movies like 1408 being 2 bucks. This summer seems much more reasonable in price/performance.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Shryke42 — GMT

ashkul88 wrote:

thanks synestro speaking of Shryke, what's your opinion bud?? get off the fence and tell us which way you're leaning....i'd just take a look at your slates, but i'm too lazy.... :D

(Grumble) :x Fine, ash. Truth is, my strategy often changes from season to season. There are seasons when almost everything seems overpriced, and there are seasons when most everything look like a bargain. My most recent strategy is this: in Box Office, assign every film a score based on a millions of dollars per dollar spent ratio. This season, there are a few movies that might earn a score of 10, including Indiana Jones, What Happens in Vegas and Hellboy 2. These are just based on estimates, of course, but then I go down my list and figure out how to fit the films with the highest "scores" on my slate. In the May season, a good score would be 8 or higher, meaning that $800 million is probably what it will take to win. In past season, however, a score of 4 or 5 would be good. In Ultimate, of course, there's a lot more to consider, but I try to use a similar scoring system, breaking them down into Blockbusters, Mid-Rangers and Arthouse.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

interesting....analytical as always. :D so where does your strategy point you this season? and in relation to some earlier comments by (was it??) Donte or SS, who said they'd had the misfortune of picking Semi-pro, Cloverfield etc. the only blockbusters i've ever gone with are Transformers and HP5 (in only one slate), I Am Legend and now Iron Man....so you'll forgive me if i'm not as paranoid about being screwed over by 'monsters' as some of you guys are....the blockbusters have been good to me (relatively) and as long as i keep picking winners (which doesn't seem to be that hard with blockbusters), and as long as they are reasonably priced, i don't mind a little free-spending on a big movie. for example, i knew about a week before beowulf, and also cloverfield, that these movies were class-A untouchable material....with Semi-Pro, i just got lucky....i returned from a trip at around 1:00 am the day that Semi-Pro released and couldn't add it onto my slates....but hey, i'll take a little luck :D ....who wouldn't?? :D

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

transformers2 — GMT

my strategy changes from season to seaason i also a couple of experimental slates i dont know how they are faring right now i should check that out.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

HeroicEkin — GMT

I'm not very good at this game, and play Ultimates almost exclusively. But in my opinion, this game is, and always will be, about value. Some people have brought this up when talking about how overpriced some blockbusters have been in the past, but haven't really come out and said it. In each season there's a certain expectation that comes from each fantasy dollar you spend to build your slate. The vast majority of us, myself included, probably don't have the slightest clue what that expectation is, but it's there: we expect Iron Man to achieve a certain level of success for its price, while we expect Speed Racer to achieve a lower level of success for its similar price. When something like Alvin and the Chipmunks explodes onto the scene, it completely demolishes its expected value. This allows you to get tons of utility out of the money you spent on that film, and you get to use your dollars for other movies. Of course, if you picked all mid range movies, you'd probably not spend all your fantasy dollars because you can only choose 8 films. Sometimes, you're forced to spend on more expensive picks simply to get rid of cash (not that this is always the best play). Blockbusters rarely have surprising returns: they can underperform, but they're rarely pleasant surprises. In smaller leagues, or leagues where your goal may not necessarily be to place first, picking blockbusters is fairly safe: you know what you're going to get for the price, and can adjust your strategy accordingly. As leagues get larger, and you want to win, you have to "gamble" more on mid-range picks and hope some of them bust out at the box office in order to win.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

undeadmonkey — GMT

^^^ Great explanation, HeroicEkin. It is about value. The way i see it is if you pick an expensive blockbuster and it fails, you're almost certainly screwed. As for mid-range picks if one of them fails, most of the time you have enough money to work around it. Also, usually blockbusters cant exceed expectations as mid-range picks can.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

A_Roode — GMT

One of the advantages in picking blockbusters is that you can cause chaos in the slates of your opponents. Even the perception of you crushing them utterly in box office will drive some players into completely wrecking their slates so that they can compete. Everyone is filled with a certain amount of self-doubt. Exploiting this can be greatly advantageous. It's the same as front-loading your slate and taking an early lead. Insecurity can cause some players to sacrifice what might actually be a slate that will beat yours into one that doesn't fit with their core strategy. Act and cause others to constantly react. Be flexible in your vision but immune to panic and nerves.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

JackO — GMT

Those are some words of wisdom right there A_Roode.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

haha, well preached Master Roode.... :D i totally forgot what i call the "Blockbusterfly Effect" :D where one person loads heavily with IM opening in the first week of the season, and in response, 3 others do it, and a chain reaction follows.... and you end up with only the most seasoned/confident minds leaving their slates untouched....

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

mooreland — GMT

That is a very interesting idea Roode. I hadn't ever thought of that. I try not to pay attention to other people's slates once the game starts and just play what I think is best for me, play my game, but I never really thought of the idea that other people are looking at my slate and letting that influence them. Interesting.... I am with the mid rangers for all the reasons stated. Basing all your hope on one movie is just too risky.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

mooreland: how about if the movie turns in IM-like numbers, i.e. if you knew beforehand (via Mase's projections) that the movie was a BO/PTA (and in this case, UR) monster....just some food for thought.... also, i do look at other people's slates (well the top few in my league at least), but it's usually to gauge how well i'm going to do comparatively. i've only changed my slate in response to another slate twice, and the first time i tied for the league victory and the second time, i won a regulars league....my point is, the only time i change my slate is when i look at another person's slate and think, "he can gain 8 points in the PTA leaderboard with that, but i'll only gain 6 in BO...." so i have to come up with an imaginative solution and pick a different movie/combo.... case in point....in the oct-dec leagues, i believe another regular (i won't mention names) was in first place while i was in 2nd, and he had TGCompass and American Gangster releasing, while i had the same and a $2 filler movie that wasn't going anywhere....i realised that i had to come up with a combo that would work better and so i worked in the Enchanted-NTreasure 2 combo and ended up winning the league.... so i only change my slate if i'm sure someone's got a better one than me, otherwise i just go with my instincts....or rather Mase's instincts.... :D

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

Alright so I skimmed through most of these and figured I'd offer my two cents. I really think this debate comes down to the films that are surrounding the blockbusters. You know they are going to perform well. It's usually a given. But you also know that they are going to cost a lot of money. Now this is where those small $2 fillers comes in. If you can grab them and actually get some value out of them, it doesn't hurt you at all to spend lots of money on the big blockbusters. This was my strategy in the April-June leagues, where I have Iron Man and Indy. I was able to spend $76 on those two movies, because of the smaller films I could fill in. Films like Flight of the Red Balloon, Street Kings, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Deception (ok that one failed). I still have What Happens in Vegas and Savage Grace left. So far that is $13 spent, for 11 PTA and 11 top 5, with $73 million in box office and an average 7.3 imdb. Combine this with the potential top 5s and box office from WHIV and the possibility for PTA from Savage grace and you have a formidable slate of films. That is why I chose to go the double blockbuster route in April. In May on the other hand, I could not make a feasable slate going with Iron Man and Indy. This is because of the lack of solid options at the bottom of the barrel. Sure, you would get lots of solid points from those two, but you would have spent $72 on them. That leaves you with $28 for 6 movies. I think that the only sub $5 movie worth taking is The Edge of Heaven. So that is $4 right there. If you took Mr. Lonely, that's a good call, spent $3 more. I didn't see that one coming. We are up to $79. We need 4 more at an average of $5 each. This is where I have a serious problem. I can't come up with a good combination of 4 films that won't give a devastating hit in any category for $21 dollars. Where are you going to find top 5 points in that dreck? Where are you going to find PTA? I don't see a lot of solid imdb scores down there either. There are no Sarah Marshall's, no Street Kinds, no The Visitor, no FOTRB. Are you going to rely on the Strangers, Savage Grace, Padre Nuestro, The Foot Fist Way, fucking Space Chimps and Meet Dave? I mean come on, those films will get you absolutely nothing of value. As already mentioned, everyone has Indy, so it is a wash. So you have Iron Man for $39. Obviously it is kicking ass right now. But for that price you can get, as Surfer pointed out, Get Smart, The Incredible Hulk, and Zohan, for the same price. The combination of these three movies, will give you an obviously much higher imdb score than just the one, and won't have you scrambling to spread $28 bucks over 6 movies. They also could very make more box office dollars, more top 5s and more PTA. If each of them bring in 8 top 5 points, and 6 PTA on average, thats 24 top 5s and 18 PTA. They could each average 100 million and give you $300 million. I can't see Iron Man doing those numbers. Not even close. This also leaves you with options like Hellboy 2, What Happens in Vegas, and The X Files. That's what I went with in the May-July season in Ultimates. I went with Surfer and took the mid-rangers. I just see those 3 outperforming Iron Man in every category. If one bombs then I'll be in trouble, but I don't hink they will. Now of course this is all in Ultimate. In every Box Office slate I took both Iron Man and Indiana Jones. Just had to include that for the BO only players.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

you make a good point geez, but do you really believe that Zohan and Hulk will pull in 6 PTA each?? i can see Smart pulling in 6 PTA possibly, but Zohan and Hulk may pull in 3-4 on OW and maybe 1 more the next weekend....on the other hand, IM has already blasted its way to 10-10 in 2 weeks and this week will probably see a 4-3 or something for IM....as shryke pointed out in another thread or his column, the LEAST IM can do is 17 T5 and in PTA apparently the least it can do is 13-14 (which is more than i expected already).... also, the issue of UR is a complex one IMO....like you said, Smart Zohan and Hulk will give you 3 times the UR, but don't forget that I have 2 more slots to fill and worst case scenario, i can pick 2 $2 fillers that give me 7-8 UR each....with IM's 8.4, that's a 24 in UR that Smart, Zohan and Hulk CANNOT POSSIBLY match!! by the way, i believe this discussion started when we were talking about the April leagues....but when you mentioned May, i went back to look at my May slate and check out my lineup for May-July: $39 - Iron Man $3 - Mister Lonely $7 - What Happens in Vegas $33 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $4 - The Edge of Heaven $3 - Savage Grace $2 - The Strangers $9 - YOU DON'T MESS WITH THE ZOHAN!! how's that for squeezing in a beautiful last leg!! :D depending on how 'Edge', 'Savage' and 'Strangers' do, I think I have a decent slate on my hands, no??

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

You absolutely do ash, as you always do. And I'm not saying that a double blockbuster slate won't win. Squeezing in Zohan is a great move. You were lucky to grab Mr. Lonely, I just didn't see that coming. But as far as your user rating goes, what films do you expect to get you those 7-8 points? Mr. Lonely is at a 5.5, WHIV is at a 4.2, Savage Grace is at a 6.0 and its gone down. The Strangers should be in the 3-5 range. And everyone is taking The Edge of Heaven. So I don't see where those 7-8 user ratings you speak of are coming from. You are going to suffer from a low imdb score. You just better hope that Incredible Hulk bombs or I don't see you winning. Of course, that is what you believe, so I can't fault you for sticking to your guns.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

silversurfer19 — GMT

Damn it, every response I was going to give to ash's comments have been replied to by geez. You put my argument across very well!!

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I do agree that sometimes a few movies can beat 1 blockbuster in terms of overall points and that would not be a big deal except that you can only have 8 movies. If you use up 3 to just beat my blockbuster, I have 7 movies to beat your 4. There is no set strategy for every season although there are a few rules that apply in general. A 60 dollar (PotC) blockbuster summer is vastly different from a 40 dollar (IM) blockbuster season.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

undeadmonkey — GMT

Does anybody else think that Marvel might have another hit on there hands with The Incredible Hulk? The latest trailer looks really good and it looks like Marvel really knows what they're doing.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

Donte, no offense, but what you just said doesn't make any sense. I am not saying take 4 $25 movies and try your luck. That would be ridiculous. Taking the three mid-rangers, would still leave you plenty of money to take a full slate of 8 films. Your theory is completely backwards. I get to spread the wealth around 5 movies, where you need to spread it out over 7. Meaning the value of each movie you take will have to be less, because you need to spend $4 a movie, where I can spend about 6 on average. Doesn't seem like much of a difference, but it is, trust me. I do agree that there is a difference between taking a $40 blockbuster and a $60 blockbuster, but that was when FM first started the new format and they were working out the bugs in the pricing. I think they have fixed it since then, that is why they are not completely overpriced.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

Geez, it makes perfect sense if you look at the strategy a bit differently (total performance) than just performance vs dollar projections. If you use 3 of your 8 slots to beat 1 of my 8 slots then you must outperform my other 7 with only 5. You use 38 bucks on Hulk, Zohan, and Get Smart to offset my 41 dollar Iron Man. You now have 62 dollars to spend on 5 movies. I have 59 to spend on 7 slots. It is true I have less to spend on average but there are always movies to get for cheap that will kill. If a movie like Mister Lonely brings in 5 PTA for 3 bucks then I now have 150 Mil, 15 PTA and 10 Top 5 for 2 weeks with IM and ML. Hulk, Zohan and Get Smart and another random choice will have to all win their weekends to get even close to that many. Sometimes those 2-4 dollar movie can easily fill in point cracks that the 9-10 dollars movies miss. What I am saying is that sometimes a blockbuster gets an assload of points and then a couple well bought 2-4 dollar movies give you the PTA and imdb to fill in to excel at a slate. Example; I took Iron Man in Just the Right Mix 10. I then spent 10, 23, 4, 4, 2, 8, 2 on the rest of the slate. I spent 70 bucks on 2 movies and the other 30 on 6 movies. The 6 (well 5) movies perform well and my 47 dollar iron man cleans house as expected and voila, I am in 2nd place. I may not finish in 2nd but if I get less than 5th I will be shocked. With that said, all the strategy in creating a slate is moot if a movie underperforms. Blockbusters very rarely do badly (unless its Speed Racer and we all saw that coming) and a smart player can gauge performance and react accordingly. I did see Mister Lonely coming and had it on 7 slates in the two seasons. That is 5 PTA for 3 bucks. Under the Same Moon for $4 and Flight of the Red Balloon for $5 were other great picks that could easily propel a slate to win. I had them both on several slates. We are all just making educated guesses (and sometimes even un-educated ones when going with instinct) and we will all pick a terrible movie once in a while. The only time 1 bad pick can ruin a slate is if the other picks are not very good either.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

silversurfer19 — GMT

It really depends on the season though Donte. Try and fill your slate with 2 dollar movies in this season, you will get very little in return. Last season was a good month for cheap picks, but FM have been much better with their pricing for this season, and if you took IM and Indy, you will struggle to find six movies for $28 which can bring you anything without badly giving you a disadvantage in another category.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

And this time surfer, you said exactly what I would have said. I completely agree with you Donte, if those great cheap picks are there like in April. I did the same thing. But in May, Mr. Lonely and The Edge of Heaven are about it. There are not always those key bargains that you speak of. The better FM gets at pricing, the less their will be, and the more difficult it will be to put together slates, like May has been.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

Yeah May is a bit tougher and June looks pretty barren for small PTA picks. My theory is to stay away from any art house movie that costs more than 8-10 bucks. I got suckered into SOP for one slate (had to try)and 4 PTA for 12 bucks is crap. Mister Lonely and The Visitor are unbelievable picks and I either got lucky or am a genius (I think half and half of each LOL). I just think that avoiding the summer blockbuster in favor of a few smaller movies that may equal it is a big gamble. It may work sometimes but lots of mid-range movies underperform in my experience. Smart People, Made of Honor, Leatherheads, etc.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

There is a difference between mid rangers in april and mid rangers in june/july. Zohan, Get Smart, The Incredible Hulk are all much much surer bets than any of those mid-rangers you showed to have failed Donte.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

alright geez and SS, get a room already!! :P lol jk....but when someone you know over the internet starts finishing your thoughts for you....hehe, i'm just joshing.... so I just saw the new Hulk trailer, and it's got me worried!! mainly because from the 3 movies you mentioned, 'Hulk' was my most certain pick to flop, and the new trailer throws a heap of sand on that fire....but still, Smart, Hulk and Zohan will have to do one hell of a job to match Iron Man.... *CROSSES FINGERS* :D

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

lillylovelost — GMT

I didn't have Pirates or Spidey in any of my slates last year (had Shrek in one of them), and I didn't do so hot. Knocked Up and Hairspray did help though. I think it is hard to not have blockbusters on your slate. But, as mentioned before, last years blockbusters were soooo expensive, that it was kind of hard to just have that one movie and then the little ones that weren't going to do well. Shrek was 63 dollars! Now, I'm throwing in blockbusters and picking sure fire mids and lows. Which is why I have this as my May-July line up in BO: $26 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $13 Sex and the City $23 Wall-E Jun. 27 $6 Hellboy II: The Golden Army $19 The Dark Knight $7 Mamma Mia! $4 Step Brothers $2 The X-Files: I Want to Believe

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

binkley — GMT

I agree with Ekin way back on the first page in that it really is all about value. The issue is, how well can you judge "value"? If you are a poor judge it is probably better to go with the seed ranking (via price)/blockbusters since they are believed to be "safe". Also, the group you are playing with makes a difference, if everyone is going mid-range it might be worth it to go blockbusters and blow everyone out since no one will have 2x blockbusters...and vice-versa. Part of it is also to take into account whether you want to win out or just stay safe (Super Leagues). Riskier slates can pay dividends but is the immunity really worth it in like a Super League? Of course in a small personal league, "Second place is the first loser" IMO. This game is a lot like investing in stocks actually...research helps and there's a lot of intuition/past performance trying to indicate future performance.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Thomassi87 — GMT

The winning BO slates in the May-July leagues will surely beat the $1.000.000.000 mark. I think mine might reach it as well. I decided to go with Iron Man, Indy, Wall-E, WHIV, Get Smart & HBII.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I really hope that Hulk does great. The trailer looks very cool and I have been waiting on a Hulk/Abomination throwdown onscreen since I was about 9. LOL If the movie disappoints performance wise it won't be from my lack of trying. I will be seeing it opening night as well. I have Get Smart and Zohan on a few slates along with the Hulk so I hope they all do well. :mrgreen:

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

geezer9687 — GMT

I definitely think My box office slate will pull in over a billion dollars, and all I did was grab the four biggest blockbuster, Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Wall-E, and The Dark Knight, and threw in Step Brothers with my last 4 bucks. Not very inventive at all, but I think it will prove to be highly cost effective. There is no way any of my big 4 fails. They could all clear 300 million, The Dark Knight only has 2 weeks, but it could clear 200 million in that time. That should give me over a billion. Box Office is a completely different animal from Ultimate. You don't have user ratings to deal with.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Buscemi — GMT

In one league, I almost did the same thing (studio name: Allison Janney). Differences: instead of Step Brothers, I chose The X-Files: I Want To Believe (which may outdo Step Brothers on opening weekend) and Kit Kittridge: An American Girl (which could be a surprise hit based on the book series' popularity and Abigail Breslin's drawing power). And if that tracking on Indy holds up, that would kick ass!

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I knew Indy was going to be big but the tracking numbers are showing a huge jump. Could it be a 150 Mil + OW?? That would be huge. would probably push Indy to 300 + million quickly.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

silversurfer19 — GMT

I don't think $150m OW Donte, more likely about $120m, bumping it up to the $160m mark because of the 5 day weekend. But I would hazard a guess that it could reach $300m by its fourth weekend.

Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

undeadmonkey — GMT

I really dont know how well Indy is going to do, but these are huge expectations. I really think that Indy might fail in the way that Pirates did last year. Now I'm not saying that Pirates failed, $309 Million is huge. There are only 26 movies that have made more than $300M. According to the Indiana Jones thread and its poll, 32% say for Iindiana Jones to be a hit it needs to make $350M+. There are only 12 movies which have made $350M+. When its all said and done though, i think Indy can pass $300m too.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

A_Roode — GMT

binkley wrote:

I agree with Ekin way back on the first page in that it really is all about value. The issue is, how well can you judge "value"? If you are a poor judge it is probably better to go with the seed ranking (via price)/blockbusters since they are believed to be "safe". Also, the group you are playing with makes a difference, if everyone is going mid-range it might be worth it to go blockbusters and blow everyone out since no one will have 2x blockbusters...and vice-versa. Part of it is also to take into account whether you want to win out or just stay safe (Super Leagues). Riskier slates can pay dividends but is the immunity really worth it in like a Super League? Of course in a small personal league, "Second place is the first loser" IMO. This game is a lot like investing in stocks actually...research helps and there's a lot of intuition/past performance trying to indicate future performance.

I think this is very insightful Binkley, particularly the connection to the stock market. In the Super leagues I have thus far played a very conservative game. Smart play dictates doing enough to stay alive and not get eliminated. The time to win will come later when the final season rolls around. I find that one of the real tests here too is not caving in to impulse desire. I wanted 'Iron Man' on my slates badly, especially when I saw the early tracking. Doing that would have been short term gratification at the expense of my long term strategy. I think this is a trap that many players fall into.

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

Donte77 — GMT

I was actually thinking the 150 for the 5 day weekend of Indy, SS. It will get a bit of padding because of the extra 2 days. 110-120 sounds good for the 3 day weekend but as this is one of the only holidays I get off all year I count it as a major holiday. LOL

Re:Blockbusters Vs Mid Rangers

ashkul88 — GMT

for Indy, i'm looking for a $160 mil OW (long weekend) and a total gross of $320-330 mil. I chose the $325 mil option on the Indy poll....if it makes that much, then IMO it'll be a success.... basically, i'm going for a 3-day OW gross of $110 mil and using a 3.0 multiplication factor for the BO total....