My Studios

Now that the recent box office is official, let's begin the predictions for this upcoming weekend. We've got two new wide releases and a limited release expanding to wide release. Let's analyze the two new ones.

Speed Racer- the new film from the Wachowski Brothers strikes regular and IMAX theatres with a big cast, a boatload of merchandising and mixed early word. People have been complaining about the CGI but remember that it's based on a cartoon. Also the dialogue sounds cornball but it may mesh in the end. But facing an Iron Man holdover and possible poor word-of-mouth, it either be a Golden Compass or a Matrix Reloaded in terms of success. I'll take the conservative guess and say $30 million. Meanwhile, I might catch this on IMAX in Kansas City next weekend and see how big my uncle's college roommate (yes, Pops himself) looks on IMAX.

What Happens In Vegas- yes, another dumb rom-com that the audience will eat up. But the advertising machine (running since January 18th) has been running strong and with a huge cast, the ladies will drag the men who've seen Iron Man for some punishment. In short, Cameron and Ashton still got it. $22.5 million.

Meanwhile, Iron Man should do $59 million in week two thanks to excellent reviews and word-of-mouth and hold the comic book fans until The Dark Knight (and to a lesser extent, The Incredible Hulk and Hellboy II) opens.

And expanding is Redbelt after a limited run in New York and Los Angeles. I should expect $3 million for the week based upon the cast and David Mamet's name. I will be seeing Redbelt this weekend with my mother and maybe the girl that I really like (a theatre fan, though one who's probably never seen any Mamet). I would have invited her to see Never Back Down last week at the second-run house (or as I like to call it, The Grindhouse) just as friends, but she was busy all week.

But enough about my life, so let's talk about this week in cinema.

Hmm, i think Iron Man will drop more than that. i would say around $49 million for week 2.

Now for Speed Racer, seriously i dont know what to think some people think it'll be huge will others think it'll downright fail. So Im going to say if it exceeds expectations the most it can open with is $40 million, if it fails it'll open around $25 million.

What Happens in Vegas will even though it doesnt look good it'll make lots of 'mulah'. At least $25 million opening if not more.

To sum up, My guess for Top5

1. Iron Man, $49m
2. Speed Racer, Somewhere between $25-$45m
3. What Happens In Vegas, $25m
4. Made of Honor, $7m
5. Baby Mama, $5m

I've been hoping since i first heard about it that Speed Racer would bomb. It is looking more and more likely by the day to be honest.

At first i thought it MIGHT get 1st of the week JUST on top of Iron Man, this mind you was last month. Now, i think it will be lucky to get second. I honestly don't know anyone who is half interested in it, and i think it will be lucky to have a $20 million OW.

Iron Man will easily get the number 1 spot next week with around a 50% fall, grabbing another 48 million.

I am hoping, and with every passing day i believe it will happen, that What Happens in Vegas gets the second spot. I believe a RomCom with Kutcher and Diaz has a good chance of toppling Speed Racer.

"Speed Racer" will top $25 mil purely because it's rated PG and it's summer. Where it goes from there is anybody's guess (everyone guesses a plummet down?). I think "WHIV" will be strong, around the low to mid $20s, whereas "IM" could pull of a sub-50% drop off, but only if "Speed Racer" bombs outright, say sub-$20 mil, which I think is unlikely despite the negative buzz.

My predictions

1. Iron Man - $47.5 mil
2. Speed Racer - $28 mil
3. What Happens in Vegas - $23 mil
4. Made of Honor - $8
5. Baby Mama - $5

Wow, how the mighty have fallen.

When I did my columns a few weeks ago, I was sure that Speed Racer would have enough gas (heh) to get to #1. Now, I'm convinced it just won't happen.

I've spoken to at least ten friends who have already seen Iron Man, and it's pretty much the same across the board... "I really liked it." (Only one friend was over-the-moon "I loved it!") It's got a solid User Rating, and this is the type of movie that the teenagers will go see again. And again. And possibly again.

As for WHIV, I am banking HEAVILY on this film. It's on pretty much every single one of my slates from April on. It had better do better than Maid of Honor, or I am going to be pissed.

1. Iron Man, $55 million
2. Speed Racer, $35 million
3. What Happens in Vegas, $27 million
4. Maid of Honor - $8 million
5. Baby Mama - $6 million

PTA Champ - could be Iron Man again, or it could be Speed. I'm praying to squeeze a few more PTA out of Rambow before it's too late.

Iron Man- 40mil (Almost all blockbusters take a big hit on the second weekend)
Speed Racer- 35mil (some people just won't see sense)
What Happens...- 13 mil (its competiting against Made of Honour, so it won't make as much)
Made of Honour- 7 mil
Baby Mama- 5.5 mil

Redbelt- 3mil (looks like I made the right choice in picking it for Fantasy Bankrupts... it only managed 2 PTA points, and won't get any more)

PTA
Iron Man
Speed Racer
Son of Rambow
What Happens
Mister Lonely

Iron Man - 55m
Speed Racer - 45-50m
What Happens in Vegas - 25m

I am going with:

Iron Man for 57-59 Mil this weekend.

Speed Racer gets 40 Mil for 2nd

WHIV third with a distant 28 Mil

MoH will barely break 10 Mil

Baby Mama 5th with about 4 Mil.

Son of Rambow could pick up a few more PTA this weekend but Redbelt is done. It may make another Million BO this week but I doubt it.

Noise could be in there also depending on theater count.

Iron Man: 50
Speed Racer: 35 (its a family film aimed heavily at kids, which would explain why you guys don't know anybody who wants to see it)
What Happens in Vegas: 25

Iron Man will definatlety stay on top this weekend but I cannot think of a single movie of its kind that fell by less than 50%. I think it will fall by about 51-52%. X2 opened similarly and was also loved by critics and fell 54%, being a sequel frontloading was definatley an issue so Iron man should hold a little better. Although it faces a lot of competition that x2 didnt have to deal with it.

Speed Raceris aimed at kids but has terrible buzz. Simply because its animated and in the summer doesnt mean it will find buisness. In 2005 Herbie fully loaded launched with a terrible 12.8 mill from over 3500 theaters in the summer when kids were out of school. I do not think Speed Racer will fall that hard but it could. I think that 20-24 mill is in order

What Happens in Vegas is a movie everyone seems to think is going to be bad. On rottentomatoes its getting suprisingly good reviews so far, not that it matters because a movie like this is critic proof. There is a lot of comedy in the market right now but Vegas is in a different league. It has bigger stars, better advertising, a wider release, and a more sellable premise than Baby Mama, Made of Honor, Harold and Kumar, and Sarah Marshall. It is PG-13 as well. All those comedies faired well but none really broke out, so Vegas is still in a position to do so. It is a date movie that looks funny enough for guys (sorry made of honor) to go see (Sarah Marshall except PG13), marriage themes for the older crowd (baby mama), but anyone who saw Harold and Kumar wil prolly jst see iron man again. It has wide appeal and 2 bankable stars. Look for a debut a little below the Break Up, since Diaz and Kutcher dont have the draw of Vaughnistan back then. I say a suprise 33.1

The new release that I'm most excited about this weekend is The Fall directed by Tarsem the guy who directed The Cell. It looks visually amazing and I hope it gets a wider release.

Predictions

Iron Man 49.7 mil
Speed Racer 31.3 mil
What happens in Vegas 22.8 mil
Made of honor 7.1 mil
Baby Mama 5.3 mil

1.Iron Man 52 Mill
2.Speed Racer 24 Mill
3.What Happens In Vegas 21 Mill
4.Made Of Honor 5 Mill
5.Baby Mama 3.5 Mill

aquamann has about the same projections as me. Iron Man's the money and Speed Racer's the bag.

In PTA, I see Mister Lonely dropping huge. That one week was a fluke.

Yeah, I think we should see a strong second week from Rambow, as well as Iron Man. Speed Racer could do well, and we should also see Vegas and maybe even The Visitor in PTA.

1. Iron Man
2. Rambow
3. Speed Racer
4. What Happens In Vegas
5. The Visitor

BO: I can only see a second week at the top from Iron Man.

1. Iron Man - 58m
2. Speed Racer - 35m
3. What Happens in Vegas - 24m
4. Made of Honor - 8m
5. Baby Mama - 4m

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