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Told ya:

[from Reuters:]

Toshiba to give up on HD DVD, end format war: source
Sat Feb 16, 2008 10:40am EST

By Mayumi Negishi and Kentaro Hamada

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp (6502.T: Quote, Profile, Research) is planning to give up on its HD DVD format for high definition DVDs, conceding defeat to the competing Blu-Ray technology backed by Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research), a company source said on Saturday.

The move will likely put an end to a battle that has gone on for several years between consortiums led by Toshiba and Sony vying to set the standard for the next-generation DVD and compatible video equipment.

The format war, often compared to the Betamax-VHS battle in the 1980s, has confused consumers unsure of which DVD or player to buy, slowing the development what is expected to be a multibillion dollar high definition DVD industry.

Toshiba's cause has suffered several setbacks in recent weeks including Friday's announcement by U.S. retailing giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) that it would abandon the HD DVD format and only stock its shelves with Blu-ray movies.

A source at Toshiba confirmed an earlier report by public broadcaster NHK that it was getting ready to pull the plug.

"We have entered the final stage of planning to make our exit from the next generation DVD business," said the source, who asked not to be identified. He added that an official announcement could come as early as next week.

No one answered the phone at Toshiba's public relations office in Tokyo.

NHK said Toshiba would suffer losses running to tens of billions of yen (hundreds of millions of dollars) to scrap production of HD DVD players and recorders and other steps to withdraw from the business.

Hollywood studios had initially split their alliances between the two camps, meaning only certain films would play on any one DVD machine.

The balance of power tipped decisively toward the Sony camp in January after Time Warner Inc's (TWX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Warner Bros studio said it would only release high-definition DVDs in Blu-ray format. With that, studios behind some three-quarters of DVDs are backing Blu-ray, although some release in both formats.

Toshiba responded by slashing prices of HD DVD players, but the loss of retail support has hurt.

In addition to Wal-Mart, consumer electronics chain Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and online video rental company Netflix Inc (NFLX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) also recently signed up to the Blu-ray camp.

The exclusive backing of Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) was also put in doubt when the software giant said in January that it could consider supporting Blu-ray technology for its Xbox 360 video game machine, which currently works only with HD DVD.

Sony has spent large sums of money to promote Blu-ray in tandem with its flat screen TVs and its PlayStation 3 game console, which can play Blu-ray movies.

The Toshiba source said the experience would not be a total loss for the sprawling conglomerate, whose products range from refrigerators to power plants, which would learn valuable lessons.

"Marketing was a weak point for Toshiba. We learned a lot from HD DVD. Strengthening marketing will continue to be an issue for us going forward," the source said.

(Reporting by Mayumi Negishi, Kentaro Hamada and Nathan Layne, editing by Mike Peacock)

Damn. Sucks to be Microsoft (and Paramount... and Universal... and DreamWorks SKG... and Focus... and The Weinstein Co.). You pays your money and you takes your chances, though.

Back on January 9, I wrote this: "Want my overpriced $0.02? This 'standards war' has less than 365 days of life left to it, folks." More like 38.

Then, on January 24, I challenged: "Anyone want to set an over-under? I'll put my money down for June 15, 2008." For the record, Six won that little contest, with his date of April 7: "the first Monday after the first quarter review," which was I thought a pretty damned good guess.

...This is odd, though: One day earlier, I said: "...[T]he HD-DVD format has about as much life left to it as John Edwards' presidential campaign, or Britney Spears' career, or Cloverfield monster speculation..." Now, Edwards suspended his Presidential campaign on January 30, and, against all logic, Britney seems to still be earning income. However, just this past Friday (the day before the Toshiba HD-DVD announcement), Hasbro's online toy store revealed to the world the first-ever complete model of the Bacardi-commerical-spoiling beastie, here: http://www.hasbrotoyshop.com/ProductsByBrand.htm?BR=863&ID=21030

...Like I said: Odd, huh?

Anyway: Rest in peace, HD-DVD. You can now join 8-tracks, Betamax, VHS and laserdisc in the Museum of Obsolete Technology.

Bill Gates will surely miss you. Not many more will.

Readers can link to the previous thread, "Thanks to WB, the Future is Blu," here: http://www.fantasymoguls.com/forum/posts/list/30/653.page

And, Reuters' story can be found here: http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSL1643184420080216?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologyNews&pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=10005

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Well, I'm glad its over. HDDVD did seem to be technically superior, but I don't really mind as neither format had a huge impact on me and my old-school DVD collection.

So I won, eh? Great, what's my prize? A HDDVD player?!?! Aw nuts...

I'm withholding from buying HD titles until their back catalogue titles actually contain 'extras' as standard.

If I'm gonna buy fifth element on blu-ray, i want those elements with it too you know, not just a gorgeous picture.

So I'll be able to count pixels on the screen now. I have no plans to upgrade any time soon. I've invested a fortune building a great dvd library (closing in on 1,300 *yikes*) and won't be upgrading in order to see wrinkles on actors faces. A lot of my collection is in black and white anyway. I can live with level of quality provided by plain old boring dvd's. More the power to the rest of you. Luddite that I am, watch me buy seven dvd players, stash them in a closet and gamble that they'll last me the rest of my life. Right before the Juggernaut's wheels (time and progress) crush me.

Yeah, A_Roode, I don't think I will be getting a Blu-Ray DVD player or anything like it anytime soon.

I agree with everyone else.

I've got my nice $5.00 dvds. I'm not about to spend more for just being able to count the amount of flowers in a bush in the background.

this is great news for the consumer.. blu-ray was the superior technology

also, most blu-ray players upscale regular dvds.. so your current collection will look even BETTER on blu-ray... no need to replace your old discs--just let your library keep on growing while getting the benefits of a better picture on every disc..

my suggestion to anyone considering the investment: buy a PS3!! for the price, it is the BEST and most VERSATILE bluray player on the market.. the media's standards are not set in stone yet--that means: some current blu-ray players will be incapable of adapting to any features that the blu-ray technology may incorporate down the road..

the PS3 is one of the few models that is capable of truly adapting to the changing technology.. and, as a bonus, you get the most cutting-edge videogame console ever made

Okay so.. not sure where you are getting your info but the only advantage of Blu Ray, is that it can hold a larger amount. the encoding that is *usually* used (out of laziness more than anything) is actually a lower quality than HD-DVD. Add that to the fact that it isn't backward compatible like HD-DVD was and.. well I guess we'll take what we have to since there won't be any choice soonish.

becs wrote:

Okay so.. not sure where you are getting your info but the only advantage of Blu Ray, is that it can hold a larger amount. the encoding that is *usually* used (out of laziness more than anything) is actually a lower quality than HD-DVD.

that statement is misleading.. while there HAVE been blu-ray movies issued that didn't utilize the maximum capacity of blu-ray's technology (hell, in a sense, NONE of them have as the technology is still improving), there is nothing about HD-DVD technology that could/would/should provide a better picture than blu-ray.. the fact that Blu-Ray discs can hold almost twice as much information will ultimately translate to less compression (read: higher quality video) and more content (extras actually worth sitting down and watching)..

becs wrote:

Add that to the fact that it isn't backward compatible like HD-DVD was and..

elaborate here... why would you want the media itself to be backwards compatible? Blu-ray PLAYERS are backwards compatible (that means, if you buy one, you can still play all your old dvds--and, on top of that, it will UPSCALE your old dvds giving them new life)..

hd-dvd made their MEDIA backwards compatible.. that means, you have an option to watch your brand new hd-dvd movies on a standard old dvd player without the benefit of high definition... that's nothing more than a gimmicky novelty that will utterly worthless in a matter of a couple years..

NSpannaus wrote:

hd-dvd made their MEDIA backwards compatible.. that means, you have an option to watch your brand new hd-dvd movies on a standard old dvd player without the benefit of high definition... that's nothing more than a gimmicky novelty that will utterly worthless in a matter of a couple years..

This is exactly what I mean. I may spend top dollar to buy a handy dandy Blu Ray player for my house but why would I upgrade to Blu Ray on my PC? Laptop? it means I won't be taking Blu Ray dvds on roadtrips or airplanes, or to watch at work or in my office at home.

becs wrote:

NSpannaus wrote:

hd-dvd made their MEDIA backwards compatible.. that means, you have an option to watch your brand new hd-dvd movies on a standard old dvd player without the benefit of high definition... that's nothing more than a gimmicky novelty that will utterly worthless in a matter of a couple years..

This is exactly what I mean. I may spend top dollar to buy a handy dandy Blu Ray player for my house but why would I upgrade to Blu Ray on my PC? Laptop? it means I won't be taking Blu Ray dvds on roadtrips or airplanes, or to watch at work or in my office at home.

that's short-sighted.. that's like resisting the switch to compact discs because you're content with the tape player in your car, the floppy disk-drive on your PC, and your cassette-operated walkman..

No its not. This is a new quality of the same media, not a change to a new media entirely. I fully expect that within 3 years or so a new media will be introducted, and Blu-Ray will just be the inbetween.

becs wrote:

No its not. This is a new quality of the same media, not a change to a new media entirely. I fully expect that within 3 years or so a new media will be introducted, and Blu-Ray will just be the inbetween.

the only improvements in physical media we'll see from here will be upgrades to the blu-ray technology.. blu-ray media can be expanded up to 200gb per disc (perhaps even more) and will still function on currently-existing blu-ray players.. After that, everything will be digital downloads.. physical media is on its way out, but blu-ray has plenty of time to make its mark..

Blu-Ray isn't just about movies... HP and Dell have already started adapting Blu-ray as a form of pc data storage--replacing cds and dvds.. rewritable bluray drives/discs are already available.. it won't happen over night, but expect blu-ray to infiltrate your home, work, and just about everywhere in-between..

the only exception to that, in my opinion, is that blu-ray will never catch on as an audio-only format.. i think that area has already become too digital... the only physical media we'll be seeing in that department in the future will be the spread of usb drives ("thumbdrives" / "keychain drives") for car stereos and a rise in popularity of iPhone-like portable players

Finally Blu-Ray was the superior of the two i dont plan on upgrading any time soon but when i finally do i will have a Blu-Ray

NSpannaus wrote:

physical media is on its way out

Dont say that too loudly, a few of us may cry going by the size of our back catalogues

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