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Okey dokey, I'm going to try to make a regular deal of this, just like Mase used to. (I think the last one he did was in Sep 14 when The Brave One opened at #1). I'll try to do it as often as possible, meaning most weeks, unless I really can't be bothered, or am really busy...

Box Office Scorecard Predictions for Feb 15- Feb 18 (4-day weekend, Fri-Mon)

Steve Mason, Fantasy Moguls
Not available as of Thursday 14th Feb

The Weekend Warrior, comingsoon.net
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $36.3 million
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $26.4 million
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $17.8 million
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $15.5 million
5. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $12.2 million
6. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $9.6 million
7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) - $6.2 million (Presuming it's still playing in theaters)
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.6 million
9. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) - $4.2 million
10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.0 million

Box Office Report
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) - $32.0 million
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) - $26.0 million
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) - $21.0 million
4. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) - $14.0 million
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) - $13.0 million
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $10.0 million
7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) - $5.0 million
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.8 million
9. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) - $4.3 million
10. The Eye (Lionsgate) - $3.8 million

Box Office Mojo, Derby Averages
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) $30.1 million
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) $24.0 million
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $15.8 million
4. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) $14.4 million
5. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) $11.2 million
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) $9.9 million
7. Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) $6.2 million
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) $4.9 million
9. 27 Dresses (20th Century Fox) $4.3 million
10. The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) $4.2 million

Reagan Sulewski, Box Office Prophets (unclear whether it's a 4-day or 5-day forecast)
1 Jumper (20th Century Fox) $39.8 million
2 Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $23.4 million
3 The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) $19.9 million
4 Definitely, Maybe (Universal) $15.0 million
5 Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) $13.7 million
6 Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) $10.2 million
7 Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert (Disney) $6.2 million
8 Juno (Fox Searchlight) $4.8 million
9 The Bucket List (Warner Bros.) $4.2 million
10 There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) $3.9 million

Gitesh Pandya, Box Office Guru
1. Jumper (20th Century Fox) $30.0 million
2. The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) $24.0 million
3. Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $15.0 million
3. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros.) $15.0 million
5. Definitely, Maybe (Universal) $8.0 million
6. Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) $11.5 million

The Hollywood Stock Exhange (openers only, 5-day)
Jumper (20th Century Fox) $40 million
The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount/Nickelodeon) $30 million
Step Up 2 the Streets (Touchstone/Disney) $25 million
Definitely, Maybe $10 million-$14 million

I added a few more sources this time around, but I might leave one or two out in the future. I'll probably stick with the ones that post their predictions earliest though. If there's any other places where I can get tracking stats, then please feel free to make a suggestion.

Great idea anny, although these aren't "tracking" stats, they're "professional" guesses, for the most part. A few more sites:
http://www.cinematical.com/category/box-office/
http://blogcritics.org/archives/features/new_movies.php

I am not buying it for a minute that with this many incredible movies out, Step Up will do as well as most are predicting.. MAYBE hitting Box office Mojo's lower projection, but I think even that is hopeful.

I agree Becs, I can't see it even making the top 5. But what do I know?

Jumper and Spiderwick got the wide releases. Step up will probably do okay. maybe 20 mil total. But let's not kid ourselves who's gonna dominate this weekend. Step up doesn't have a chance.

Jumper just looks like crap, but I know a lot of people that want to see Spiderwick. I think it is a toss up between the two.

Probably everybody who goes to the movies knows about Jumper. The ads are everywhere. I think it can hit $100 million.

another American Gangster, you think, J.I??

I wonder what is up with the tracking?

I know it's a little late for this week's openers, but Box Office Guru & Box Office Prophets have posted their numbers as well, so I've added those in. I might not use Box Office Psychics in the future because they seem very slow on their numbers.

Strangely, we haven't heard from Mase yet...

becs wrote:

I am not buying it for a minute that with this many incredible movies out, Step Up will do as well as most are predicting.. MAYBE hitting Box office Mojo's lower projection, but I think even that is hopeful.

I'm going to save that prediction right now and tell you that it's going to do at least $23-24 million, and I would not be surprised in the least if it went higher

People are underestimating Definitely Maybe. All the night showings were sold out tonight and it's not even the weekend yet. I can see it being #2 or #3 this weekend.

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:

People are underestimating Definitely Maybe. All the night showings were sold out tonight and it's not even the weekend yet. I can see it being #2 or #3 this weekend.

I agree Banks. For a romantic comedy, Definitely, Maybe, umm... definitely looks quite decent. As for those night showings being sold out-two words for you: Valentine's Day.

Definitely, Maybe is the PERFECT Valentine's Day movie. The other two female-skewing movies: Fool's Gold & Step Up 2 The Streets have both been critically ravaged. Definitely, Maybe is the only one of those 3 given a FRESH rating by RT, so there you go. I actually have it on a few slates, in the hope that it could really break out.

I guess I can admit now that I've also jumped onto the Step Up 2 bandwagon based on these tracking numbers. Even in Ultimate it's only $2-$3, the screw up in imdb is still worth the price.

I've added another source, from one of my other favourite (other than FM of course) movie sites-The Hollywood Stock Exchange, hsx.com. It's usually very accurate, basically as a consensus of thousands and thousands of traders have an impact on a movie's price which is determined by its gross.

Btw AzureWolf, the sources you gave seem to be slow on the uptake-they don't have forecasts for this weekend yet.

Step Up is number 1 and JMPR has an anemic PTA. It has a lot of work to do if it is going to meet those lofty projections. Spiderwick is going to rise sharply and Fool's Gold is hanging around. Mason's numbers and I am happy I have Step Up in nearly all my Ultimate leagues from the beginning, before the hype. Best 3 dollar pick ever! Good start so far, keep up the good work American viewing public.

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