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Semi-Pro comes out February 29th so it'll have only one weekend of play before the end of the season. I originally thought $16 was waaay too much just for a weekend, but then again, I was poking around Box Office Mojo and found out that every Will Ferell comedy since Old School has had an opening weekend of at least $20 million. And if you disregard Bewitched, Kicking & Screaming, & The Producers (which you really should), then every comedy has opened to around $30 million.

So is it worth it? It'll probably grab 5 Top 5 points, a couple of PTA, and probably at least $25 million in the first weekend. I'm still unsure if that's enough to justify $16.

Here are Will Ferell's opening weekends on his comedies (movies like Stranger Than Fiction and Melinda & Melinda go after a totally different demographic) since Old School:

Elf (2003): $31,113,501
Anchorman (2004): $28,416,365
Kicking & Screaming (2005): $20,159,925
Bewitched (2005): $20,131,130
Talladega Nights (2006): $47,042,215
Blades of Glory (2007): $33,014,202

How many mock-sports-Will-Ferrell films can people take?

I don't think it's worth the price for just one weekend (although that said, The Simpsons cost the same in the May league and ended up winning because of it). I'll consider it for the Jan-Mar leagues depending on the price.

$35 million, 5 Top 5, 2-3 PTA looks about right for the first weekend...Blades of Glory didn't live up to Anchorman or Talledega Nights but it did well, and I've heard this one is better. I don't think the public has tired of Ferrell yet, he's still box office gold, I believe. I'm not touching it in Dec-Feb leagues, but with all the January and February movies lacking a sure thing, it might not be a horrible idea to pick it. It's not going to have a one week explosion like the Simpsons, but those points could help a team out.

numbersix, tonberry, you took the words right out of my mouth.

No, $16 is too much to spend for three days worth of stats. You're far more likely to milk better numbers for virtually the same amount of money by picking The Eye, Jumper or Vantage Point. I'm betting all of those films will end up with User Ratings in the 6's or 7's, which won't be too far away from where Semi-Pro ends up.

I think it'll be a better pick in the January leagues... of course, given that FM has predicted it will make $100 million dollars, look for the price tag to increase to around $30-$35.

I think Rambo for $16 is a much better deal. Rambo could make a lot more than the projected 55M.

Thomassi87 wrote:

I think Rambo for $16 is a much better deal. Rambo could make a lot more than the projected 55M.

I agree. I would never spend a sixth of the budget on a single weekend. That is asking for trouble!

that's a wee bit beyond suicide IMO....forget $16, i wouldn't even spend 5-6 on a last weekend movie....that being said, i will be checking it's price tag for the Jan-Mar leagues....it's bound to have some staying power....though if FM upgrades the price above $25, it'll probably be a no-go for me....

Just echoing everyone else's sentiments on $16 being too much for 1 weekend for Semi-Pro. However, it may be worth considering Semi-Pro for Box Office Leagues for $11, where it could potentially reap $30-$40mil in that one weekend, which is reasonable for $11.

On another note, Jan-Mar leagues will probably have Semi-Pro at $30 at least, which will probably be higher than most people expect...

even in BO, $11 is too much for a return of 30-40 mil....that would mean that your total slate would be worth 300 mil....and in BO, i've seen them go a lot higher than that....so i wouldn't pick this even in BO....it'd bring my slate's per dollar average down if anything....

then again, i don't play BO, so what do i know??

Pity you don't play BO ashkul, Ultimate or BO, it's all the same to me.

As for Semi-Pro not even being worth the measly $11 in BO, well probably not, I do have it on 1 BO slate, but I'll likely change that. It's just that after December, especially in January, there is little BO potential in the releases. The January films with any BO potential are all way over their worth (Cloverfield, 27 Dresses, Rambo). $3-$4 return per dollar for Semi-Pro isn't great, but compared to what else is on offer for most of Jan & Feb, is reasonable.

IMO the best strategy for Dec-Feb BO is to stockpile all films mainly from December. That's where all the money's at...

lol, you could almost double that by getting about 150-200 for 'Legend', now that's a good buy....though in the december leagues, at $42, i'm thinking twice about it....

and it's in the wasteland months that you truly find the greatest picks anny....look at the last 8-9 months for instance....you had transformers, HP5, and the 3quel monsters in the summer, all of which either underwhelmed or just satisfied expectations....and then come august, when nothing great (BO-wise) was releasing (apart from bourne) we had the Simpsons Movie, Rush Hour 3, Superbad and the Game Plan, all of which would have been lost causes in the summer, but made it huuuuge in the Aug-Oct wasteland....so don't count out January, bud....that's probably where the winners will get their movies from....

I agree, there is still some worth in picking January or February movies. Looking at the top earners this year so far:

22. Ghost Rider, $116 million
25. Norbit, $95 million
27. Bridge to Terabithia, $82 million
33. Stomp the Yard, $61 million
41. Music & Lyrics, $50 million

All of them came out in January or February, and those'd be pretty solid contributions to a Box Office slate.

This could be one of his best movies yet. I saw a new preview on Golden Compass last night and laughed my frickin A$$ off. He tried to wrestle a frickin bear. Anyone is even a slight Ferrel fan definately has to see this movie. I doubt it'll make that much. But its still gonna be funny as crap.

there's a new trailer out?? okay, i'm off!!!! will report back in a few minutes!!!!

there's no trailer!! i couldn't find it!!!! don't do that to me!!!!

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