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Okay, I'm skipping ahead two weeks (let's face it, there's nothing on the Nov 30 weekend), to what shapes up to be an interesting battle. We're pretty sure that The Golden Compass will reap the 5 Top 5 points on offer on that week, question is, what will get the 5 PTA points on offer that week?

Personally, my heart says Juno, but my head says Atonement, with The Golden Compass behind both in PTA.

Putting The Golden Compass to a side for the moment, IMO Juno will reap more money overall than Atonement, but will be slightly less of a hit with critics (and therefore slightly less of an Oscar chance compared to Atonement). As for the PTA side of things, my feeling is Fox Searchlight will roll Juno out limited in a hundred theaters or so theaters (like I'm Not There, but more successfully), while Focus will start Atonement off in a very small amount (like No Country For Old Men), with a hope to get similar results to No Country's PTA before a wide expansion. As for TGC's PTA chances, to beat Atonement and Juno, simply, it'll have to be a monster, to the tune of at least $60mil+ from about 3500 theaters, which is unlikely at best.

But having said that, I do think there is a chance, if Fox Searchlight do the right thing by me, if Juno is rolled out in LESS theaters than Atonement, that Juno could beat Atonement's PTA. So basically, whichever film IMO gets LESS theaters, should win the PTA battle, with TGC 3rd. Also, keep in mind that Juno is released on a Wednesday, which may be slightly detrimental to its PTA chances.

Regardless, I do think Juno will end up with a larger gross than Atonement, especially if it breaks out, a la Little Miss Sunshine, Atonement on the other hand seems more like an arthouse speciality, which seems to me to be unlikely to expand significantly over 1000 theaters, while Juno I believe has the capacity to expand to over 2000. Perhaps Atonement can reach $25-$30mil, but Juno on the other hand, I reckon can grab $45-$50mil, if successful.

So, thoughts anyone, on Atonement or Juno (or TGC) and their PTA chances on the weekend of the 7th of December? Or perhaps regarding their total box office potential? (Not for TGC though, we're fairly sure it should outgross Atonement & Juno comfortably)

Depends on the theatre count, I guess. Some sites say Atonement is getting a wide release, others are saying limited, and then expanding.

I think, for arguments sake, if both Atonment and Juno were released with a similar theatre count, Atonement would win out. It's gettng grea publicity, and has Kiera Knightly. The reviews over this side of the pond have been exceptional (I think I'm the only person who doesn't like it), and it made a sizable 22mil in the Uk and Ireland alone, which is pretty damn good.

Juno is a much smaller film, and I've heard very little about it, though I know it's getting good reviews and will guarantee interest on the indie circuit. But if it opens on a handful of theatres, and Atonement opens in over 300 or so theatres, I think Juno just might win out.

I assure you that Atonement isn't an art-house speciality- it will probably be nominated for (and may win) several oscars, and it attempts to be the kind of romantic epic The English Patient was (although I think it's a lot worse than TEP)- I think Atonement could expand to 2000 theatres with ease, and could even make it into the Top 5 at some stage.

In terms of FM, though, I'm keeping well away from Juno and Atonment, as I don't consider them good value for money.

I'd go the opposite way and say, given similar theater counts, that Juno would beat Atonement the first weekend. It strikes me as a movie more people would go out of their way to seek out.

Of course it all depends on theater counts and I have no idea which would come out on top in the long run, though my feeling is that Atonement would probably win out over several weeks.

And don't count out holdovers from the week before. Both The Savages and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly are opening in just a couple theaters this weekend.

And The Walker and Grace Is Gone are also both opening that weekend. If either of them get small releases they could easily upset Atonement or Juno.

I'll just put some past data out there, using some comparable movies.

Atonement = Pride and Prejudice (romance + Knightley + Joe Wright directing)
Juno = Thank You For Smoking (because of the director) or Little Miss Sunshine (the Fox Searchlight connection).

-Pride and Prejudice opened to $13,325 PTA (on 215 screens), in 2nd place behind Sarah Silverman: Jesus is Magic.
-Thank You For Smoking opened atop the PTA leaderboard, averaging $52,584 in 5 theaters, crushing 2nd place in PTA (Deep Sea 3D in IMAX) by almost a 4 to 1 margin.
-Little Miss Sunshine opened atop the PTA leaderboard, averaging $52,999 in 7 theaters, again crushing second place (Another Gay Movie; 3rd place was, oddly enough, STILL Deep Sea 3D in IMAX) by more than a 3 to 1 margin.

By that, looks like you'd want to go with Juno...

i'd go with atonement, simply because it's got star-power, an established period-drama storyline, and because it's been getting far more publicity and slightly better reviews than juno....

Dranscht, it's a fallacy to say Atonement will do the same as Pride and Prejudice just because it has the same director and same cast member. Atonement is much bigger in terms of press coverage and in terms of reviews. Mark my words, if Atonement comes out on 215 theatres, it will be doing a lot more than 13,000 per theatre.

Plus, Thank You for Smoking doesn't have Katie Holmes, who undoubtably drew a lot of people.

To me Juno looks like a good film, but not one that will pull in the crowds. That's just my guess. I think Atonement will win out in PTA points (depending on theatre count, of course) and box office (by at least 10mil), but Juno will win in IMDB score. Atonement may get a Top 5 point, Juno none.

agreed 6, Juno doesn't seem like it'll catch on in the way Atonement will....i could be completely wrong, but there's what i think....

And I'm not saying they WILL be the same, nor am I saying that Keira Knightley + Joe Wright = the same movie every time, just that those factors means there's a slight connection between the two. In fact, I too think Atonement will be the better performer; frankly, looking up those numbers surprised me. I thought P&P had a better first weekend than that.

So I think we can agree that the PTA winner between the two will be from the one that gets its release from the fewest theaters. I'm still gonna stick with Juno over Atonement for total gross winner. Just a gut feeling, I guess.

Just something interesting of note, on imdb, the Poll Question is December release to which you are most looking forward to. Leading are Sweeney Todd (22.0%), I Am Legend (19.4%), There Will Be Blood (9.9%), The Golden Compass (9.6%) & National Treasure 2 (7.4%). Wedged either side of the "None" option are Juno at 4.6% and Atonement at 4.0%. So take it for what you want, but it appears Juno is slightly more popular atm on imdb, but not by much.

but how many votes are thrown in?? if it's like 6-7 or something in Juno's favour, then i'd still advise you to go with Atonement....

PS>> lucky for me, i don't have room for either of these on my slates....on second thought, i'd advise you not to pick either of them....just because they're not worth their price tags....

Well, I wouldn't buy either of these movies unless you know the release schedule . . . .

i wouldn't touch them with a stick 10 yards long....just because of their price which makes them sooo not worth it....look at my PTA column....i got 10 off 'gangster' ($25 and also a huge BO load + Top 5), 4 off strummer ($4) and another potentially 4-6 off enchanted ($13 and also a lot of BO + T5)....as for last season, i had 'control' for $8 (11PTA) and 'lars' for $ 2 (7 PTA)....to match the success value of these movies, juno and atonement would have to give me about 50+mil in BO, about 5-10 T5 and maybe 10-15 PTA....and trust me when i say i'll eat a hat if that happens....believe in the FM lesson....The bigger a movie's price tag, the more it struggles to outdo expectations!!!!

Ashkul, I don't know which leagues you play in, but 20 PTA points is not going to be enough to win that category in any league I'm in. . . . .

dude, that's just from 3 movies....basically my point was that no matter how well Juno and Atonement do, they basically have to double their FM predictions (at least) to come close to the success rate of movies like AG, strummer and BM....and just so you know, i have the orphanage for a few more PTA on that slate, and maybe 4-5 points from the other 4 movies combined....

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