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As soon as anyone gets info post it on here. Thanks!

I was wondering when someone was going to bring this up. Nothing from Mase -- this is going to sound stupid and predictable, but, really, this game's not the same without his thorough, top-to-bottom analyses going into each weekend. He gets a lot of guff from people -- as if he's making up the numbers, and not diligently sifting through mounds of often contradictory information to come up with halfway accurate predictions -- but, really, I'm missing him like crazy right now.

Anyway, point is, I've been using my own (admittedly, quite limited compared to The Great One's) resources, and trying to come up with a consensus. Best as I can figure, here's what it was looking like as of Friday morning...

[Revised / Updated 11:55p.m. PDT]

* I've revised a few numbers, ever so slightly: $100,000 upwards, each, for We Own the Night and Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?, and $200,000 down for The Game Plan.

[1] Michael Clayton: $12.9M (+1,785%);

[2] We Own the Night: $12.4M (NEW);

[3] The Game Plan: $11.6M (-34%)

[4] Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?: $11.7M (NEW)

[5] Elizabeth: The Golden Age: $8.2M (NEW);

[6] The Heartbreak Kid: $7.8M (-45%)

[7] The Kingdom: 5.6M (-43%)

[8] Across the Universe: $3.2M (+40%)

[9] Resident Evil: Extinction: $2.4M (-47%)

[10] The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising: $1.9M (-49%)

Also:

3:10 to Yuma: $1.8M (-44%)

The Final Season: $1.1M (NEW)

...And I don't have anything on either The Darjeeling Limited or Lust, Caution, which expanded this weekend...sorry.

A couple things. First, I'm still doing research on this, and may make some slight modifications over the next hour or so... Say, until about 12:30a.m. (Saturday) PDT. Second, some of these numbers seem a little off to me... I'd personally put Michael Clayton a good $3M-$5M higher than the number I've come up with, here, and Elizabeth: The Golden Age is looking a heckuva lot softer than I could have ever expected. (Maybe that's why there was such a last-minute publicity blitz.) There's also a lot of variety in the numbers for Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?; I've seen projections as high as $18M, and as low as $6M. Not surprising, I suppose, since historically no one's been able to predict his films' performances... And I think The Final Season could well end up UNDER $1M for the weekend.

One more thing: This fly-by-night "analysis" is IN NO WAY intended to supplant or rival Steve Mason's usually superb predictions. I'm not gunning for his job, nor am I even remotely qualified for it. He's got access to sources I couldn't dream of tapping, and I'm very certain my "numbers" end up being, if anything, only a very minimally informed guess. But, in his absence, I thought I'd give ya what I could. Don't bet the mortgage on anything I've put down, here.

And, of course, these are just TRACKING numbers, and in no way reflect actual Box Office receipts for Friday, theater counts, or anything even nominally approximating "hard data." That all being said, this is what I've got.

I don't feel too badly, though; this weekend's seemingly got everyone scratching their heads. As Carl DiOrio said in Friday's Hollywood Reporter, "Even the Amazing Kreskin would be loath to predict the outcome of a weekend like this one.": I feel ya, buddy.

The most "accurate" single source I found, btw -- meaning, the one online resource that dovetailed most fully with the numbers I came up with -- was at The Numbers: http://www.the-numbers.com/interactive/newsStory.php?newsID=2903

And, with that, I'm off to bed.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Very very early numbers says that Tyler perry will not only win the weekend but it will win by alot. it also says that We Own the Not and MC are not doing to well. WOW.

Geezer -

When you say "Tracking" - are you referring to box office estimates, or are you talking about the aware/interest information that Mase gets...

TP looked to be #1 in that, M/C seemed to be up in the air as to how it would perform.

I meant how well the movies are performing baldwin, sorry for the confusion.

Please note, that ShowBIZ Data is the first to publish daily box office grosses every day.
1. TYLER PERRY'S WHY DID I GET MARRIED? LIONS GATE 2,011 7,438,000 3,699 n/a 7,438,000
2. WE OWN THE NIGHT SONY 2,632 3,699,000 1,405 n/a 3,699,000
3. MICHAEL CLAYTON WARNER BROS. 2,511 3,234,000 1,288 1,542% 4,312,000
4. GAME PLAN, THE BVI 3,128 2,967,000 949 -32% 50,910,994
5. HEARTBREAK KID, THE PARAMOUNT 3,233 2,266,000 701 -51% 20,849,063
6. ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE UNIVERSAL 1,951 2,024,000 1,037 n/a 2,024,000
7. KINGDOM, THE UNIVERSAL 2,835 1,324,000 467 -54% 36,700,125
8. ACROSS THE UNIVERSE SONY 954 1,256,000 1,317 124% 10,194,667
9. RESIDENT EVIL: EXTINCTION SONY 2,848 736,000 258 -42% 46,146,113
10. GOOD LUCK CHUCK LIONS GATE 2,476 605,000 244 -45% 31,321,936

Hmm. So, putting my seat-of-my-pants "tracking" numbers together with the information filmboy provided this morning (found here: http://www.fantasymoguls.com/forum/posts/list/45/411.page), Friday's numbers actually look pretty good, with the noteable exception of Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?...

FM Early 3-Day Estimates vs. Nico's Massively Amateurish Tracking

[1.] NEW - Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?: $25.3M vs. $11.7M [4th]

[2.] The Game Plan: $12.3M vs. $11.6M [3rd]

[3.] Michael Clayton: $11.4M vs. $12.9M [1st]

[4.] NEW – We Own the Night: $11.2M vs. $12.4M [2nd]

[5.] The Heartbreak Kid: $7.3M vs. $7.8M [6th]

[6.] NEW – Elizabeth: The Golden Age: $7.0M vs. $8.2M [5th]

[7.] The Kingdom: $4.36M vs. $5.60M [7th]

[8.] Across the Universe: $3.47M vs. $3.20M [8th]

[9.] Resident Evil: Extinction: $2.59M vs. $2.40M [9th]

[10.] The Seeker: The Dark is Rising: $1.99M vs. $1.90M [10th]

[11.] Good Luck Chuck: $1.93M vs. (no data) [unranked]

[12.] 3:10 to Yuma: $1.5M vs. $1.8M [unranked]

Feel the Noise: $1.37M vs. (no data)

The Darjeeling Limited: $940,000 vs. (no data)

Into the Wild: $864,000 vs. (no data)

Transformers: $841,000 vs. (no data)

NEW - The Final Season: $540,000 vs. $1.1M [unranked]

Lust, Caution: $475,000 vs. (no data)

In the Valley of Elah: $359,000 vs. (no data)

The Assassination of Jesse James: $355,000 vs. (no data)

NEW - Lars & the Real Girl: $93,000 vs. (no data)

NEW – Sleuth: $41,000 vs. (no data)

NEW – King Corn: $10,801 vs. (no data)

Those of you watching closely will notice a couple things about my "predictions," primarily that I tend to over-inflate (sorry, that expression is straight out of the Department of Redundancy Department, isn't it?) Top 10 grosses, in this case by in the neighborhood of 12%-15%, on average. (Which, considering the epic numbers I promised for Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film for Theaters, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, ought not surprise anyone, really.) Also, that I'm really not very adept at tracking limited releases, much less PTA. Which just underscores, really, the obvious: I'm nowhere near as proficient at this as Steve Mason is. If he's a Pro Bowler, I'm on the scout team... for a 8-man high school junior varsity squad, at best. What I mean is, I'm glad this ain't my job. (And you should be, too.)

Some offhand comments: I'm continually amazed at how poorly Hollywood does at tracking / estimating the grosses of films geared toward African-Americans. As far as I can tell, NO ONE has a handle on the depth or breadth of demand for QUALITY films serving that community. Tyler Perry might just be the most frequently, even universally underestimated talent in this business; although he hasn't yet made a true blockbuster, his films always seem to over-achieve.
Also, what the heck happened to Elizabeth Returns? This should have been a slam-dunk... A sequel to an honored, deeply cherished film, returning the same director and principals, with a greater scale and budget, and a pretty darned interesting story, to boot. Here's the rare case where, perhaps, the critics actually DID influence the filmgoing public; this should have been on-track to be one of the biggest films of the season, and an Oscar contender besides. The fact that this monarch was toppled so completely ought to give studios pause; could it be that it's simply not POSSIBLE to make a profitable historical epic with no action-star talent? Would Elizabeth have been golden if, instead of Clive Owen, it had featured Brad Pitt, or Russell Crowe, or Mel Gibson?

I so cannot believe how badly Jesse James has tanked. This former Best Picture hopeful has come completely off the rails, no pun intended, and I really wonder if Brad Pitt is the draw everyone always assumes he is. (Yeah, I know, I'm contradicting what I said in the very last paragraph. Not to sound too much like that vamping 11-year-old vixen from Kid Nation, but, deal with it.) Excepting Troy, what's the guy actually DONE in the last, oh, ten years? Could it be that, at this point in his career, he's a far more compelling celebrity, than movie star?

Across the Universe continues to perform well, though it won't be the breakout hit I had hoped it would be, sadly. Still, I think word-of-mouth is helping this film. Don't count it out of the running for some big awards, yet; this little marvel still has time to stretch its legs.

I know that Sleuth was largely unanticipated, and massively under-marketed. But, still: $41 THOUSAND? For Michael Caine and Jude Law? Tragic.

Finally, for a socially relevant, critically acclaimed film boasting one of the very best performances of the decade, In the Valley of Elah certainly hasn't made much of a splash. Again, I reiterate: The Kingdom, I suspect, could be by far the most commercially successful modern war-related film of the year. I think Lions for Lambs will get a big push, but -- with the exception, possibly, of Charlie Wilson's War -- the rest of 'em look poised to die fast and quiet. This list includes Rendition, Redacted and Grace is Gone. And I wouldn't put too much faith in Atonement or The Kite Runner, at this point, either.

PTA, meanwhile, looks like this:

[1.] NEW - Lars & the Real Girl : $13,286 PTA

[2.] NEW - Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?: $12,581 PTA

[3.] NEW – King Corn: $10,801 PTA (on 1 screen)

[4.] The Darjeeling Limited: $9,896 PTA

[5.] Lust, Caution: $6,169 PTA

[6.] Into the Wild: $5,647 PTA

Go Huskers! And, as far as Tyler Perry goes... Wow. I'm just flabbergasted.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Nico wrote:

PTA, meanwhile, looks like this:

[1.] NEW - Lars & the Real Girl : $13,286 PTA

[2.] NEW - Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?: $12,581 PTA

[3.] NEW – King Corn: $10,801 PTA (on 1 screen)

[4.] The Darjeeling Limited: $9,896 PTA

[5.] Lust, Caution: $6,169 PTA

[6.] Into the Wild: $5,647 PTA

Dude, where's Control, i'm really relying on that and Lars to get me through the PTA category for the season

And for what it's worth Nico i enjoyed reading your predictions and i think you should keep doing it, as for your baseball analogy:

If he's a Pro Bowler, I'm on the scout team... for a 8-man high school junior varsity squad, at best.

Your being a bit harsh on your self mate, in most of your predictions you were at most 2 million out, with tyler perry being the only exception. My analogy for you will be about real football (soccer) because i know nothing about baseball, except that Cardinals won the world series.

Now for the analogy:
Mase is the manger of a team challenging for the premiership title with world class players at the helm, while you are an upcoming manger in the championship looking to gain promotion.

Mase said that the midweek opening od Control may harm its PTA, but doesn't have any figures. It opened on Weds with about 4000, and about 3000 on Thursday, so over the weekend it should get about 9000 PTA minimum, which would get it 2 or 3 points, which would be disappointing.

...as for your baseball analogy...

[Exasperated] It was football, actually, but I've given up hope that my sports references and analogies will be correctly interpreted, here. [Grin] Fine, baseball it is.

...[F]or what it's worth Nico i enjoyed reading your predictions and i think you should keep doing it...

Thanks, Shaan, for the support, but I haven't got the talent, or the equipment, for this game. Mase is the man, both starter and closer... to paraphrase The West Wing, what I did was step in for a couple pitches with a fresh arm. I may not have embarrassed myself, exactly, but I, for one feel much "safer" with him doing it, than me.

Mase is the manger of a team challenging for the premiership title with world class players at the helm, while you are an upcoming manger in the championship looking to gain promotion.

I'm really not. (Hoping to gain promotion.) But I appreciate the effort you undertook in writing that analogy.

He's "back," we survived, and all is right with the world. This just made me appreciate Mase all the more. We're lucky to have him.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

WOW. Saturday's early figures are in -- thanks, Mase! -- and Elizabeth is dropping like the head of one of Henry VIII's wives. Now it looks to end the 3-day weekend with UNDER $6.4 million. Meanwhile, Control is a MONSTER PTA hit, with better than $26,000 in per-theater revenue. (Lars and the Real Girl, The Darjeeling Limited, Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married?, and Lust, Caution look to round out the top five in that category.) King Corn apparently wasn't nearly as popular Saturday as Friday...

What a strange, strange weekend...

Check out all Mase's numbers here: http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/10/tyler-perry-blo.html

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Control and Lars, PTA kings of the weekend

Chienfantome wrote:

Control and Lars, PTA kings of the weekend

great for me that i have one, or both, of them in every one of my studios!!!!

Nico, you stole my thunder on Tyler Perry critique- I just wonder how many more times he will have to do what he does box office wise before hollywood would even consider giving his projects the time of day for marketing.

I am fascin ated by the financial enigma known as Tyler Perry. How does his projects do what they do and Hollywood execs can't figure it out? He is responsible for two financially capable films this year (Daddy's Little Girl, Why Did I get Married?) and is still not on the tip of the tongue of those who make the big decisions. While Mr. Perry is doing what he does, film companies like the Yari film group are leaving financial disasters behind as fast as they can make them. And yet, the Yari people's press dwarfs Mr. Perry.

It Kind of reminds me of Ice Cube before he let his marketabilty get to his head (XXX2, Barbershop 2, Are We Done Yet). I miss the Ice Cube up to Barbershop. Could someone please find him? I would like that Ice Cube back, not the current 'star' version.

But I digress.

jameydunne
-"I wish, I wish, I wish I were a fish. Because fish have better lives than people."

jamey:

Sorry to steal your thunder. [Grin] Next time, I'll just take the copper tubing. It's worth a BUNCH on the secondary market.

I just wonder how many more times [Tyler Perry] will have to do what he does box office wise before hollywood would even consider giving his projects the time of day for marketing.

The fact that TBS has committed to a minimum 100 episodes of his current sitcom, House of Payne, is encouraging. The deal's pretty damned sweet, even groundbreaking (for anyone in television, not just an African-American artist / creator): Perry retains all rights to Payne and has a first-look deal for his next project, which may bve rolled out early next year to TBS and Fox. It sidesteps a lot of the grasping middlemen and the corporate b.s. -- actually, the deal reminds me somewhat of George Lucas's revolutionary agreement with 20th Century Fox back in 1976 -- and expands Perry's exclusive arrangement with Lions Gate Films. Clearly, someone's paying attention, both at Time Warner and Lions Gate Films. (There are pretty strong historical relationships between the two, btw, through both multimedia mogul Ted Turner and a guy named Gordon Crawford, a deal-maker for a company called Capital Research & Management. Hey, in Hollywood as on Wall Street, everybody's in bed with everyone else at some point.)

Broadcasting & Cable had a great story on the Perry-Debmar-Mercury deal, btw; you can find it here: http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6365067.html

While Mr. Perry is doing what he does, film companies like the Yari film group are leaving financial disasters behind as fast as they can make them. And yet, the Yari people's press dwarfs Mr. Perry.

Yari's got some game: They put out Thumbsucker and The Illusionist, remember, and were also the studio behind Best Picture winner Crash. They've attracted some big-name talent, both in front of and behind the cameras, and while their track record so far is spotty, well, that's to be expected from a young studio -- even one headed up by a producer as experienced and successful as Bob Yari. How long did Miramax toil in relative obscurity before sex, lies and videotape? (Answer: about a decade.) There are far worse studios out there than Yari, believe me: AfterDark Films, for example.

It Kind of reminds me of Ice Cube before he let his marketabilty get to his head (XXX2, Barbershop 2, Are We Done Yet). I miss the Ice Cube up to Barbershop. Could someone please find him? I would like that Ice Cube back, not the current 'star' version.

I think I'm still sort of forbidden from talking about Cube, ever since I "guaranteed" that he was "The. Next. Big. Thing." in one of my early columns. [Grin]

But I digress.

Hey, that's my line! (Oh, wait, no, mine has a comma. Nevermind!)

"I wish, I wish, I wish I were a fish. Because fish have better lives than people."

What's that from? The Incredible Mr. Limpet? Arrrggghhhh...

I remain, as always...

Nico.

"Fish heads, fish heads!
Roly-poly fish heads!
Fish heads, fish heads!
Eat them up, yum!"

P.S. Roly-poly fish heads are never found drinking cappucino in Italian restaurants with Oriental women... Yeah... [DINKDINK!!!]

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