My Studios

My question is during the weekend of October 19, two movies have the potential to gain money: 30 Days of Night - horror - and Rendition - a thriller. Rendition has higher projections, yet it's October and there's a vampire movie! lol So...which one will win the crown of higher gross overall?

I think 30 Days of Night will be a hit. Its got star power and the amercian public is looking for a good vampire film he havent had one in a while redsoxpatriotfan i would like to invite you to the new regulars league. Email me at kfcman945@yahoo.com for the info.

I think it will be a hit.. honestly its the first movie I'm significantly excited about since transformers.

Well, I have decided to put 30 Days of Night into one of my studios. I think this was a good decision also. It stood out for me from the other torture movies (ahem...Saw). Well now I'm happy...lol

I don't know who is directing it, but I know Sam Raimi is producing it. So my mental math went something like this- Sam Raimi+ Horror+ Solid Indie Comic source+ Unique twist to a stand by classic= at worst a cult movie and a best a 'surprise' hit with upcoming sequels.

If they do decide to do sequels, it wouldn't be as bad as other movies either. Just like the Bourne movies, 30 Days is a little min Indie franchise already with some very solid ideas in it.

Your mental math is good but you should add two things to the equation making it look like this:

Sam Raimi producing + Horror + Solid Indie Comic Source + Unique Twist - certain box office death when Saw 4 arrives - Josh 'everything I've touched lately withers and dies' Hartnett = at worst a cult hit and at best a suprise hit.

Josh Hartnett has been busy making cult classics his entire career pausing occasionally for widespread disasters (I'm looking at YOU 'Pearl Harbour'!). Cult classics are great but they share one unique problem... nobody goes to see them! I hope the film does well but the main strike against it is Saw 4 coming out on its second weekend. The horror audience is niche and the greater part of it is going to see the second film and not the first.

On the other hand, it might do as well as second place on its release weekend and might hold on for 5th on its second. Most of the money it'll earn is going to come from those two weeks anyway so it does have some value. And it is a less risky choice than a couple of the films it shares the same price as.

A_Roode, don't know how I would factor in the Saw audience, but your point definitely holds itself well. The biggest thing probably going for it that may be a underestimation of the comic base and Saw's drawing power (it is its fourth time around).

Re: Saw's continuing drawing power

As a qualifier, I haven't seen any of the Saw movies theatrically and stoppped after number 2. That said, these message boards were full of discussion last year leading up to the release of Saw 3 predicting doom and gloom for the franchise. Movie Studios have been very quietly shifting their films away from what was once a very packed Oct. 26 weekend. They clearly think that something on that weekend has the goods. Is it Paramount's "Things We Lost in the Fire"? Is it Buena Vista's "Dan in Real Life" or is it Lionsgate's "Saw 4"? I'm betting on option number three.

I don't think it'll match the box office of the last one but Jigsaw and crew will have to prove that they aren't still a viable box office threat. I really hope that '30 Days of Night' has a long life. It has Sony's muscle behind it but I really don't like the weekend they've picked for it. Fingers crossed anyway!

Being a huge Saw fan I hope 30 days does very well. Will it be a hit. Doubt it. It looks awesome but it's definatley no Underworld or 300. I for one will be going to see it. Especially since I love vampire movies. Also happen to be a fan of Josh Hartnett. Although I never saw pearl harbor and don't intend to. Mainly because I already know what happend.
Anyways. You say that discussion boards were full of trash talk about how bad Saw 3 was going to be right. Yet, It has grossed the most out of the franchise and has grown to be one of the biggest "original" horror movies of our time. And whether anybody admits it or not Saw has a fan base. And judging fromt the crap load of money it has made. That fan base is pretty big. They might not be on message boards promoting the movie like me. But they are out there. So talk trash all you want but saw is not dead. And it has no intention of giving up its halloween Box Office throne this year. So you might as well except it.

Money made is not any sort of indicator of quality...

Also, the Halloween box office throne this year, yeah, that's a mega giant huge competition. What's against Saw 4 -- Dan in Real Life, and Run Fatboy Run. I wonder which film will make the most?

dranscht wrote:

Money made is not any sort of indicator of quality...

Also, the Halloween box office throne this year, yeah, that's a mega giant huge competition. What's against Saw 4 -- Dan in Real Life, and Run Fatboy Run. I wonder which film will make the most?

Dan in Real Life maybe.

haha no I agree with Saw IV being huge once again this year. Come Halloween weekend, that opening weekend will hit close to $40M.

I don't know. I saw a preview for RFR and simon pegg could steal some BO away from saw. I haven't seen a preview for dan in real life but we have the poster and that looks pretty funny. I think I'll wait for a longer preview for saw. The teaser didn't excite me as much as the others.

I just wanted to bump this up a bit.

I just picked up the hardcover edition of the complete 30 Days of Night graphic novel. Let me tell you, this is the horror movie I have been waiting for my whole life (I'm not a huge horror fan).. If it stays true to the comic it will be at worst a cult icon, and at best a surprise blockbuster.

The only disappointment for me is that the comic was written with an Eskimo lead, which is completly appropriate for the setting, however I am willing to guess that there are likely no Eskimo actors in the movie.

Becs they might play off of Josh Hartnett's expressionless face acting style as him being an Eskimo.But I still have high hopes for this film.How can we not have an October release of a vampire film do well in the box office?
Late

It will bomb at the box-office.

My Studios

ADVICE & ANALYSIS: