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Many movies are coming in September that are definite hits, might-bes and just plain bombs.

Here are the movies that are in question for me:
3:10 to Yuma - Will it get a good crowd or just be a disappointment to anybody who put it in their studio?

The Brave One - I know Jodie Foster can carry an action film (Flightplan). But can it bring in the money?

Resident Evil: Extinction - This film's projections aren't as high as the gross of its predecessor. But anything can happen in Hollywood (March of the Penguins). I do have one question though: Is this the last? I know extinction is in the title, but I am not familiar to RE.

Shoot 'Em Up - This has a mother and child being protected as in Children of Men, but was that as gruesome as this will be? Anyways, it does have a fair projection.

Anymore in question? I just did quick jots of ones that I could think of. What's your take on these?

Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.

tuan69 wrote:

You forgot to add Jesse James. That film will be a masterpiece.

you're really in love with this western after watching the trailer eh tuan??

(to be fair, so am i....)

Yeah. Of course Jesse James. It seems to have a fair projection. Think it will do better?

The Kingdom will be the biggest hit and the best film of September.

Will the others be able to hold up though? Because if that's the case w/The Kingdom, I'll get it. It did look pretty good, by the way.

3:10 To Yuma and Shoot'Em Up will hold up The Brave One won't Not Sure about Resident Evil. Shoot'Em Up and 3:10 To Yuma are good solid picks for your slate.

Thanks. I was unsure about some of them just because they're so crammed in September.

Erm, I noticed you phrased that question, "movies... coming in September." See, I suspect one or two of September's biggest films may actually open the last three days in August . (Particularly Balls of Fury; though Halloween (2007), God help me, might actually make a splash; Death Sentence, sorry to say, is D.O.A. Man, does Kevin Bacon need a new agent.) I'll not be surprised if Tiny Balls does $75M; Michael Myers Rising, $60M; and Six Degrees of Assassination, $25M. However, I seriously doubt any of this month's offerings will actually cross the $100M threshhold.

Imo the top three contenders (in no particular order) are 3:10 to Yuma, Resident Evil: Extinction and The Assassination of Jesse James..., with The Kingdom and Good Luck Chuck threatening to break into the upper echelon, and at least one potential bona fide sleeper hit. Read on:

I think the 3:10 to Yuma remake is the slam-dunkiest prospect of them all; only fair-to-poor reviews will keep this entry under $60M. Still, even for a bevy of A-list celebrity millionaire playboys, $100M is pushing it. Call it $85M, and I hope I'm low-balling it.

Resident Evil: Extinction, I think, could be the highest-grossing of the series. There's certainly a lot of anticipation for this one... Anyone who's ever dropped their mortgage papers, their kids' college fund and their drawers in Vegas ought to be smacking their lips in gleeful anticipation. Erm, at least that's what I hear... on The Strip. From other people who, you know, go there and do... stuff. And things. I guess. Not from my own personal experience, of course, ha ha! Friends tell me, that's all. Friends of friends. Who know people I know, or have heard of. Or might have. Actually, I think it was on Showtime. Or, erm, The Learning Channel, actually. Call it $70M, but I could be $10-$15M low on this one, since, you know, I'm not familiar with... Vegas, or anything even remotely like that.

However, Westerns, on the other claw, I know. Jesse James COULD be Unforgiven, or, on the other hand, it COULD be... Wyatt Earp. I think this film will get magnificent reviews, but really should have been pushed up in front of Yuma. Call it $65M. It will deserve better, but then, so did Mr. James.

Good Luck Chuck, I think, has all the makings of a slightly less profitable version of Knocked Up; I'll call it for $65M. but it could go higher if women turn out the way they did for the Judd Apatow film. I still think it has a ceiling of $80M, though.

The Kingdom is one of my personal top three most-anticipated films of the year, but I wonder if Iraq fatigue will hurt this film's chances. Not to put too fine a point on it, but this film could be anything from a $20M bomb to a $100M blockbuster. I'll be conservative, though, and call it for $50M, with lots of potential.

I think Into the Wild might be a stunner. It will nab fantastic reviews and may be one of the top PTA films of the year, period. I'll say $25M, 10 PTA, and (heh) climbing.

Other potential sleeper hits: The 11th Hour (another August release), which may do as much as $20M with continued media interest and a slow, deliberate rollout; and it's guaranteed 7 PTA points, minimum. Across the Universe, which I've been big on since... well, forever; $15M, easy, and it could go as high as $25M. And it will snare at least 12 PTA points, guaranteed. Shine A Light will do $10-$12M with 6 or 7 in PTA. In the Valley of Elah might do $5M with a handful of PTA points. In the Shadow of the Moon might snare some PTA, too, but no more than 4, total. And Self-Medicated will make a modest splash for a couple PTA points, I think. The Jane Austen Book Club, Bordertown and The Darjeeling Limited could figure, also, but not much. All of the films I just mentioned, going back to Into the Wild, are potential IMDb gold mines, however.

...Let's not forget Dragon Wars, which looks to be written by a ninth-grade DM whose favorite films are Armageddon, Godzilla (yes, THAT one) and Reign of Fire. Please. This might as well have been called, not Eragon, but "Errorgon," or even "We're-a-Gone". As in, not interested. $25M might be extremely generous.

If The Brave One (with one of the worst one-sheets I've ever seen, btw; if I could toss a "thought bubble" on it it would read, "So... STOOPID! They TOLD me not to shoot myself in the butt... STOOPID! STOOPID! STOOPID!") makes $40M I'll be very, very surprised. [Wink] Jodie Foster needs to be rebooted (again); she's aimlessly wandering in Denzel Washington's personal career Purgatory (though I think American Gangster might finally break him out of his several-years'-long-slump). Anyone doing a remake of Pulp Fiction?

And, is it just me, or could ANYONE, ever, besides Billy Bob Thornton really be cast as a leading character named "Woodcock"? [Sigh] But, then, Pigs on Bikes, or whatever the Hell that film was earlier this year, grossed, what, $200M? Still, I'll predict $35M for Mr. Woodcock.

[Sigh] I really suppose I ought to say... something... about The Game Plan. Fine. This craptastic piece of shite will likely earn $45M. In a perfect world, so many theatergoers would demand their money back that it would actually make NEGATIVE money, but... After all, it's NOT a perfect world, else Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton, Nicole Ritchie and Anna Nicole Smith would all have been merely particularly un-fleshy chum for The Discovery Channel's Shark Week. Explore THIS world, sweethearts... Anyway, back to The Game Plan. I literally cannot think of anything nice to say about this film, except that I promise there won't be a sequel. If this movie becomes the biggest hit of the month I shall shoot myself in the head with something. Like, a harpoon, or a TASER, or a SABO round, maybe.

...And let's not forget, Transformers in IMAX, which will easily be one of the top five entries in that niche market of the year, despite being an afterthought and trailing its 35mm predecessor by all of two months. Another $25M, easy, perhaps a LOT more. I myself will see it at least twice in IMAX if possible; it should make up for the hideously unwatchable IMAX hatchet job version of Superman Returns.

Gee, that was unexpected. Okay, well, I guess I've picked up my enchanted quill, again, so now I'll put it back down. [Grin] Until next time... I remain, as always...

Nico.

Wow.. was that a book or what?

I have to say, I wasn't around before your break, but your movie leanings definitely align very closely with my own, so I'm glad to see you back!

Great column, Nico, as usual, and you seem to have encapsulated all of September's major (and a few minor) releases... except one.

How do you think Shoot 'Em Up will do? A significant percentage of the players in ALL my leagues have it on their roster (including myself in a couple of them). To me it looks like a winner, possibly around $40 million, but what do you think?

Nico i think you got your expectations way to high on Dragon Wars 20 million it wont even make 5 million i didnt even know it existed untill 2 weeks ago.

"Great column"... [snort] Thanks, Shryke, I'm slowly beginning to get back up-to-speed.

...Yeah, actually I deliberately ignored Shoot 'Em Up (You BAD rat! BAD! Naughty! Naughty, naughty, naughty! --No, no, not the paddle... We-ellllllll, all right, if you must... [SMACK] No! No! Not the emory board and smithy's tongs... ...Sorry, merely indulging a certain Kate Winslet fantasy, there...), just like The Brothers Solomon and Sydney White... I mean, I friggin' love Shoot 'Em Up's principals, and I know it's snagged some buzz and positive reviews, I just don't know how New Line's going to sell this one to Middle America. Crime dramas, even relatively novel ones, die fast and quiet on our shores... Anyone remember Lonely Hearts, Slow Burn or The Flock? ...I thought not.

Honestly, I'm not convinced a single one of the leads can actually CARRY a film, without some other major factor contributing to public awareness, like, for example, Alfonso Cuarón's pedigree, or M. "Twist!" Night Shyamalan's. Want my honest opinion? I think Shoot 'Em Up could be the next The Lookout. Remember the advance word that film had? I was one of the few "pros" advocating caution about that one, just like Hot Fuzz and, remember, I took a lot of heat for calling Grind House at a rock-bottom $39M. (It did a scant $25M, flooring even me.). What did Lookout -- a decent film, btw -- do? $4M? What about Fuzz? $23M? I'll call Shoot 'Em Up for $25M, but I gotta be blunt... it could wind up with much, much less.

transformers, you could well be right about Dragon Wars... Could be anything from Dungeons & Dragons ($15M) to Pathfinder ($10M), to The Last Legion ($5M), to... oblivion. I'll stick to my guns, though; $25M, and that's high. I may have lost a bunch of weight over the Summer, but I still have all my previous stubbornness! [Grin]

becs: Thanks, and it's great to be back. (Though I think my old "beat" is in terrific hands!) You can read all my FM columns at http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/nicodemus/index.html. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I ought to mention that I also predicted $45M-$50M for Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film for Theaters. So, clearly, to paraphrase Paul Westerberg, I'm not dyin' to offend you, / But I've got a dyslexic... erm, Ouija board.

ETA: Don't take the whole Kate Winslet thing too seriously. (I like Jessica Biel, too.) [SMACK!!] [Grin]

I remain, as always... Nico.

Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.

Mark my words Nico, the three biggest movies of September will be (in order):

1. The Kingdom
2. The Brave One
3. The Game Plan

I'm saying around 80-100 mill for Kingdom, around 75 mill for Brave One, and around 70 for Game Plan

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