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I don't really see this happening. Disturbia was a suspense thriller, and had man of the moment Shia LeBoeuf as its star, as well as well known actors such as Carrie Anne Moss. Prom Night looks like a typical teen slasher flick, with identikit teen actors and very little originality. I don't see how you can compare the two. Also, I agree with Geez regarding 21. I don't see how a film abotu poker will be a success. Lucky You was a huge flop, so there is precedent for those kinda films. It may be helped by having Spacey in it, but I think it'll do better PTA wise than huge BO numbers. It may get $25-30 million, but I cant see any more than that.

Geezer, dearest Geezer:

When I made the first post I defined my statement as a "poker film", which I meant as "21". I didn't think I needed to reiterate the same definition after you replied to my original comment. I thought that you'd remember, but maybe not. I thought you'd also give me the benefit of the doubt, but you didn't know I knew the difference, since I've dealt blackjack off-and-on for about 5 years now. But, thanks for the information. I keep thinking that Texas Hold 'Em is the same as Monopoly for some reason.

"Lucky You"? Really, c'mon man. Yes, that was a "poker film", but even I haven't seen the film and could say that if it is indeed a "poker film", then "Titanic" is a documentary. "Lucky You" is a romance caught up in the poker world with a transparent cast in Eric Bana, who couldn't even find a decent performance in "Black Hawk Down" and "Hulk" and a Drew Barrymore that shows more reason to become a full-fledged producer (as opposed to actor) with every role she accepts. And, that film wasn't marketed to you. Its target market was your dad, if he played poker for hours on end and cared anything about wooing your mother every once-in-awhile.

"21" comes out on a relatively small weekend and has been advertising for months, since the end of last year. We've already seen two films: "Jumper" & "Vantage Point" that have finished their weekends at #1 not by being "good", but having successful marketing campaigns. I'm not the first one saying that, I'm just telling you what I've read. So, since "21" has been advertising for about as long as "Jumper", there's definite potential. And though I like Will Ferrell, I'm not reading "Semi-Pro" as a blockbuster. I see a lot of potential for it being knocked off its second week in release. Not only that, "21" has competition from "Nim's Island" and "Leatherheads" the week after. And it should be noted that George Clooney has never had success (financially) as a director, through 2 films.

Bingo, Herald -- Prom Night does not equal Disturbia.

I mean, Prom Night has been pushed back like 6 times; it's been delayed for what, almost 2 years?

Yeah a film pushed back that many times must have problems. The teen slasher/ horror scene has died, it will not have the same draw it may have had a few years ago.

Seriously, Lucky You is the definition of NOT a poker film. I went along to see it (same friend I saw Jumper with...) and was genuinely hopeful it would be a serious, fast paced, poker focused film... no such luck. Slow, crappy romance, poor acting (with Eric Bana coming off Munich I really expected better).
21 will not share its fate. If nothing else Jim Sturgess and Kevin Spacey are forces to be reconed with, they will make the film at very least watchable, and at best a surprise hit. In the theatre last weekend when I saw Charlie Bartlett I was fairly interested by the fact that Street Kings and Horton got no response, but the audience was buzzing over 21, The Ruins, and 10,000 B.C's trailers. Then again apparently those who saw Charlie Bartlett are already in the vast minority.

I agree I think 21 will do fairly well, but it probably wont even win it's OW. It's going against Superhero Movie. Maybe just maybe we'll get lucky and it will flop. Doubt it though, I'm sure the same meatheads who went to date movie, epic movie, and meet the spartans will show up.

Because all three of those movies had opening weekends that were almost exaclty the same. Just like the Saw sequels.

Yeah, Im still debating whether to put Superhero Movie on my slate. I know its gonna tank imdb wise, but Meet The Spartans even did pretty good in PTA scores. So if it does well in 3 of the 4 categories, I can use other movies to drag my imdb ratings back up.

I really like the potential of "21" because they have a hot-topic in poker (blackjack, actually)

This is the extent of your explanation of how 21 is a "poker film." I assume you do know the difference between poker and blackjack frisky, I didn't mean to insult your intelligence. But throughout each of your posts you have treated them as the exact same thing. You can not fault me for saying poker and blackjack are not the same when you have said time and time again that they are. You have never once called 21 a "blackjack movie." It would be a better comparison to say its a "gambling movie." I just don't like the fact that you act like people who play poker will see a movie with cards in it and not realize it is a totally different game. They will go "oooh cards! I must see it!" That's why I brought up Lucky you. You can not tell me that it wasn't more of a poker movie than 21. It did actually have poker in it. It failed because it was a bad movie. 21 will not fail for being bad, it just has too much competition for it to break out, and it doesn't have wide appeal. I'm already torn from that weekend as "Run, Fat Boy, Run" comes out the same weekend. The public will probably go see Superhero movie. Rambo couldn't even get to 50 million. I can't see 21 going higher than 40. And really, I don't see this big ad campaign you are talking about. I haven't seen a lot of ads for it.

I'd love to believe that Run, Fat Boy, Run will do well, but I just have this feeling it'll top out at tis prediction of 17 million. This is for one reason. You Americans just don't seem to be able to get British comedy at the moment. Hot Fuzz and Shaun of The Dead, both starring Simon Pegg topped out around that same BO total. When films such as Meet The Spartans are beating that in its OW, it makes me feel really sorry for you guys.

I think it'll struggle to get its 3 predicted Top 5 points, maybe 2, but the competition of Stop Loss, 21, Superhero Movie and the films from the previous week give me little hope for it. It may do well PTA wise, but it depends how widely it is released.

Geez, I know very little about poker, or any card games, so what is the actual draw to 21. I don't see how it will even get to $40million. I don't know, The Cooler was good, but not because it was a card movie, it was just a good piece of acting, especially from William H. Macy. But apart from that, I don't know what appeals, can anyone enlighten me?

The draw of 21, in my opinion, is the story. It is based on actual events. A bunch of kids from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) learned to count cards. They went to Vegas and made a bunch of money. It has been documented on the Discovery Channel, History Channel, those types of channels. I like the premise of college kids ripping off Vegas. Its an interesting story to me, that is why I want to see it. And about Hot Fuzz and Shaun of The Dead. They are two of my favorite movies of all time, and I am American. So some of us do get it. It's just the majority, as far as I'm concerned, are retarded. Thats why Meet the Spartans makes so much more money.

Thanks foir the info regarding 21, still not my kind of movie, but I guess there is an audience for it, especially if there have been so many documentaries on it. Maybe I should consider it more so.

Sorry if I suggested all Americans don't get British comedy, I meant the majority. I look out for any movie involving these guys because it is usually quality. I suppose you have seen Spaced, one of the best tv shows of the last decade. If you haven't it is perfect for the fan of Shaun and Hot Fuzz, full of film references and hilariously funny.

21 has the potential to be a breakout hit, for exactly the reasons you've mentioned Geezer.

Run, Fatboy, Run on the otherhand does not have the potential to be a breakout hit... HOWEVER I am counting on Simon Pegg's cult following to cause the movie to slightly overpoerform predictions. Not by much mind you, but worthwile enough.

Since we are on the topic of poker movies. I just wanted to get your opinion on the upcoming film Deal. It is an actual poker movie. I don't know anything about it, other than it has Burt Reynolds. what are your thoughts on the potential for this. It is only $2 in March Ultimate leagues and so far I have it on each of my slates.

ok i seem to be the only one who doesnt think 10000bc will be a huge bomb. i think it will be huge...

then again if you look at last years big hits, 300 and Wild Hogs; they were hits nobody saw coming. so my guess is the big hits of the spring will be unexpected.

10,000 B.C- its the biggest film this year and the general movie goers will be intrigued by big animals runing around. they dont care who the cavemen looking people are in real life, they dont care if it is historically innacurate, and they actually liked the day after tomorrow which made about 190 million
OW: 45-65 Total: 125-225

College Road Trip- Like it or not this film will do big business. Martin Lawrence movies continue to do well because people seem to like him, kids definatley like Raven, african americans almost always turn up opening weekend, and parents trust disney.
OW: 20-32 Total: 80-130

i dont know enough about 21 to make a guess, but i do think that Baby Mama could be a big suprise

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