My Studios

Ash, they are talking about third place, not winning the weekend.

mooreland wrote:

No no, Golden Compass will beat the Savages. I would bet money on it. Compass is going to have a huge opening day and it will be third.

Mooreland, you could very well be right about The Golden Compass. I guess I don't rate it as highly as some others do. But if you look at things at this point, The Savages is on track for a 40,000 PTA for its OW. Say it stays in the same amount of theaters and I'll conservatively give it a PTA in its 2nd week of half of its OW. That'll still be 20,000 PTA for its 2nd week.

The Golden Compass says it'll open in 3000+, but I think it'll actually get 3500. So to beat my projected 2nd week PTA for The Savages, off 3500 theaters will need to pull $70million. That's not happening. TGC could potentiall pull up to $55-$60mil max on OW, and that's really stretching it, but not any higher IMO.

The Savages should definitely expand after doing so well. It should go to at the very least 20-30 theaters, so it will be hurt by that.

geezer9687 wrote:

Ash, they are talking about third place, not winning the weekend.

oh, my bad....i zoned out for a bit i guess....

The Golden Cumpass will bomb.

mooreland wrote:

Hey JackO, where did you get these tickets for the free screening? I want one. Badly.

You can get it at the Fox Searchlight Website

http://rsvp.foxsearchlight.com/RSVPSystem/screenings.php?MoviesId=55

for its price tag, it might well be overhyped, but it's not a bomb by any means....anything south of a 50 mil opening is disappointing for it's expectations, but it'll have to open below 30 mil (a la beowulf) to be a bomb IMO....

PS>> correct me if i'm wrong here, but doesn't Juno open on Dec 7th (it WAS Juno you guys are talking about the screenings for right??) and shouldn't screenings be held before it's released??

Yeah but you can have 'unofficial' advance screenings that run concurrently with 'actual' release screenings at the same time. 'Juno' might only be opening in NYC and LA, but that doesn't mean Fox Searchlight isn't going to try and create awareness in Top 10 markets at the same time. When it expands there the following week, you've already got (finger crossed!) good buzz and word of mouth. I assume that is what's going on in this case.

true, but i checked when they're screening it in montreal, and apparently not till Dec 19th!!!! funny enough, that's the day i go home to malaysia for my christmas break, so i'll miss it by 9 hours....weird though....i'd think they'd divide the total BO by ALL the theaters and not just the ones where it's paid....i mean, the fact remains that they're putting it out in more theaters than they're claiming, and that's like picking out only the theaters where your movie performs strongly to be counted in its PTA rating....right??

Nah, special screenings aren't counted in Fantasy Moguls. This has come up earlier when people were wondering if sneak previews would count and they do not.

Also, that's a lot of Juno screenings. I wonder if that's a sign that it's going to roll out slowly, which of course would help its PTA potential

ashkul88 wrote:

i'd think they'd divide the total BO by ALL the theaters and not just the ones where it's paid....i mean, the fact remains that they're putting it out in more theaters than they're claiming, and that's like picking out only the theaters where your movie performs strongly to be counted in its PTA rating....right??

How? They are not picking out which theaters that they want. They are picking the ones where people are paying. How could you calculate the money made per theater if you put in theaters that didn't make any money because they were advance screenings. Also, there are advanced screenings that weeekend, but it is usually just one screening per area. It is not showing the whole weekend. It is only just playing once so that it can generate buzz around the country. I like the advanced screenings, because I just got an advanced ticket. I still might go again, cause I feel that I should support the small budget films, and I have a feeling I am going to like it enough to see it again.

i just meant that if they want to use the extra screenings to generate publicity, they've got to be willing to take a hit in the PTA numbers....

to be honest, i don't even feel that strongly about this....i don't know where i would have gone with it....forget it....i guess i'm just miffed because i'm leaving 9 hours before i could have seen a sneak of Juno for free!!!!

Hey, I'm sure it'll be worth the money to see when you get back. Free screenings of movies you don't particularly like are better because then you didn't have to pay!

Advanced screenings are kind of a pain because your ticket does not guarantee you entry. You have to get there very early and stand in line. Those of you going to these Juno screenings make sure you show up at least an hour early

yeah, you have a point....i'll keep my eyes peeled for movies i don't expect to like then....

*GRIN*

My Studios

ADVICE & ANALYSIS: