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There are two ways that Bee Movie could be influenced by or influence the remaining holiday season films.

I honestly think that families will start to make a mental list of all the kiddie films they will bring the children to well before the films come out. BEE Movie is in a good position for its opening because of all the reasons presented in this thread--mainly the lack of good kids flicks for the past month or longer. This bodes well for Bee Movie--it is getting to be time to take the kiddies to a film.

However, I doubt Bee Movie will draw alot of repeat viewing like say, Golden Compass, National Treasure or Legends. Bee Movie will be a one and out so I suspect there to be a decent decline after the second week.

Also, with the Game Plan still out, some families may pass Bee Movie to concentrate on the more Holiday Oriented films like Enchanted, Alvin, Magorium and possibly Fred Claus for the older ones---these films might appeal to the parents more as well--just a guess. After Thanksgiving there are a shed load of choices for the kiddies and parents know this.

Bee Movie wil do well, but I suspect it will start to decline once the competition sets in. Legend on the other hand has the end of Dec PLUS all of Jan to makes it's haul with little or no competition. I honestly think Legend will end up being the better choice in the long run and will probably have higher user scores as well.

We shall see, though. Both films stand to make $$.

All,

The question of whether, and how, Will Smith influences the Box Office of any particular film is a good one, I'm sure just the kind of subject that's brought up in studio boardrooms, and especially their marketing departments, when they're getting close to deciding how much money to lay out for a title and how necessary -- and cost-effective -- its star power will be.

Smith's an interesting case, because although he's never at the tip of anyone's tongue when they're talking about the greatest actors, or biggest stars, in film today -- you'll hear a lot of Tom Hanks, Brad Pitt, Russell Crowe, George Clooney, Jim Carrey, even (well, until recently) Tom Cruise -- Will Smith has starred in a LOT of the top-grossing films of all time: Bad Boys II (#187), I, Robot (#144), Shark Tale (#139), The Pursuit of Happyness (#133), Hitch (#106), Men in Black (#43) and its sequel (#88n) and, of course, Independence Day (#25) in the Top 200 alone.

Is it the films, or is it him? Here's what I suspect: It's both. Smith was perceptive and forward-thinking enough, very early in his film career, to choose projects that had the potential to be box-office smashes -- Bad Boys, Independence Day, Men in Black, Enemy of the State, Wild Wild West -- and although there were a couple of turkeys in there, for the most part, he chose very, very wisely. Second, he chose films that put his name front-and-center in front of the most people possible, which means, of course, the Summer tentpole release. For a few years, there, he had the market cornered on "event" July 4th films, where his presence became so common, people began to wonder why a big Summer release DIDN'T star the Fresh Prince. His name became synonymous with the big, rowdy Summer blockbuster that everybody sees, which gave him the leverage he needed to start selecting films that HE wanted to make: The Legend of Bagger Vance. Ali. Hitch. The Pursuit of Happyness. He's now at the point where he can pick and choose his projects, and doesn't need to be away from his family for more than a few months a year, which, for an actor, is about as good as it gets.

But, again, the question: Is it the films, or is it him? Well, here's what I know. His very presence makes blockbusters bigger -- he MADE Men in Black's bank, which in turn guaranteed its sequel's, and no one can tell me that I, Robot, Hitch or The Pursuit of Happyness would have come anywhere near $100 million without him -- and elevates the public profile of smaller titles, like Bagger Vance and Ali, which without him might not have crossed the $20 million plane. He's an insurance policy for "event" films, and a lifeline for boutique projects.

When my wife and I first saw the trailer for I Am Legend in a theater she expressed immediate interest in seeing it. I was surprised, because that is SO not her kind of film -- in our family, I'm the one with the Apocalypse fetish and who gets all wide-eyed at the thought of things going BOOM, WHUMP or SPLAT. So I was curious. I asked her why she wanted to see a sci-fi / horror flick about the end of the human race, especially because I had to practically drag her to see titles like Armageddon, 28 Days Later and Dawn of the Dead. She shrugged and said, "It looks like it'd be a good movie," just the sort of nonspecific response that inspires me to sneak a flask of Bailey's under the table at Starbucks, so I pressed her, asking, Why do you think it'll be good? And her answer was: "Will Smith doesn't make bad movies."

I thought about arguing with her, but she's going to like I, Robot no matter how many times I tell her that they flat-out butchered one of the greatest genre novels of all time and that, somewhere, Isaac Asimov is quietly spinning in his positronic grave, so I fell silent. Though I loved the original concept, I think the Men in Black films were a triumph of style over substance; Bad Boys has never been more than a momentary distraction for me, I thought Enemy of the State was a hamhanded rip-off of The Conversation, and the best way to really, really piss me off is to get me started on Wild Wild West. But, then, Alec Guiness, Paul Newman and Michael Caine made some real pieces of crap on occasion, too. Will Smith at his best is very, very good, and he manages to make even the clunkiest Michael Bay title work, at least for a while. I may not be going to see I Am Legend because it stars Will Smith, but his presence makes me more confident I'm going to have a damn fine time. And that's good enough for me.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

P.S. I think vive had it exactly right: "In terms of bankability, I think he's the new Tom Cruise." Or even Harrison Ford.

Bee movie..........
Where to begin.
It was funny. for the most part.
It didn't make any sense.
At all.
Every scene change just strayed the movie further and further from anything that could be considered fathomable.
Anybodys who sees this will know what I'm talking about.
It could've been a pretty good movie. Maybe great. Coming from someone who completely dislikes Jerry Seinfeld should tell ya something.
I think though, the problem was, the sciptwriter couldn't lay off the peyote long enough to write a script with some reality to it.

It'll still make a butt load of money though.

In Seinfeld voice:

"WHY is my movie going to do horribly? Because people can't stand the sound of my voice."

lillylovelost wrote:

In Seinfeld voice:

"WHY is my movie going to do horribly? Because people can't stand the sound of my voice."

Hahaha, did anyone else catch Seinfeld on "30 Rock" a couple weeks back? Tina Fey's Seinfeld impression was spot-on!

But Nico, I, Robot is still a lot better than 90% of decent-budget sci-fi films these days.

I guess it would have taken a lot to make I, Robot into a masterpiece that the source material clearly is deserving of.

Well, the movie we got is still more than fine enough for me.

So I'm pretty sure everyone is agreed that Bee Movie will be big, thanks to those damn kids. American Gangster will be better overall, but I think neither will have very strong legs throughout the rest of the year. After this weekend, there are simply too many choices for people to keep either of those 2 movies fresh in their mind.

Take for example - next weekend, Nov. 9th. For the kids and bored parents, you've got Fred Claus. For the fanboys, you've got Southland Tales. And for the adults, you've got Lions For Lambs or No Country For Old Men.

This holiday season is very similar to this summer. While Bee Movie and American Gangster will have huge opening weekends, they'll tail off rather quickly, just like Spider-Man 3 and Shrek 3 did.

If you are calling spider-man 3 and shrek 3 dissapointments then I don't know what to tell ya. I know I'd take either one at over 300 mil. Bee Movie and American Gangster are going to own the month of November, Bee Movie #1, Gangster #2, and everyone else fighting for third, with my money on Fred Clause.

Eh, Fred Claus could win next weekend. But I don't think the dollar amounts will be disappointing for Bee Movie or American Gangster.

My concern would be spending that much on Bee Movie without even knowing if it'll win the weekend. Spending that much on Bee Movie and having it only get 9 top 5 points would be much worse than spending $25 on American Gangster and having it play second fiddle to Bee Movie. My sense is that for all this uncertainty you can find a better way to spend that $33 (or whatever the cost is) that has a lot less downside risk.

The whole reason I started this post was because I was in first place in my october ultimate league with 2 slots left to fill on my slate. I have only spent 29 dollars, on the films the comebacks, why did I get married, the seeker, lars and the real girl, 30 days of night, and before the devil knows you're dead. So I could take any other two movies, provided one of them is not beowulf. I just wanted to see what everyones opinions are on how I could guarentee a victory, which I think is pretty much in the bag if I take any two of those three movies. That's why money is absolutely no concern. Right now I am going with Bee movie and The Golden Compass, and hopefully they will deliver me my second league victory.

Geezer, you may be better with a combo of A Gangster and Golden Compass, as it looks like you need an IMDB boost (Why did I and the Comebacks both having scores under 4)- looks like Bee Movie will do the worst in terms of that out of the bigger films, whereas Compass and Yankster are both guaranteed IMDB socirs of 7.5+ each

Thats a very good point 6, thanks for your insight.

Thanks Nico for the very in depth enalysis on Will Smith and his bankabilty. It was very well thought out and I truly understand what you are saying. I still believe that Bee movie will win though, just because it is so much harder for a rated R film to wim, especially against a ated G computer generated feature. Especially when that R-rated movie is in the apocylpse/horror genre, which typically drives away a certain base of movie-goers to begin with. But I still think Legend looks better and I will totally be in line to see it opening weekend. The trailer looked so awesome.

It's too late now, of course because all nov. 2 movies are unavailable, but just in case anyone was interested Bee Movie has pulled a pretty impressive 7.6 so far...

Well I pretty much pulled a last minute swith in this slate, as well as all of my november ones, taking bee movie out, and going with American Gangster. Mase says everyone is buzzing with anticipation about this one, as am I, and I hope he is right. I usually don't like last minute switcheroos, but we will see how it shakes out at the end of the weekend.

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