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Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.

The Comebacks is going to make a lot more than 1 million.

I believe he meant that it'd be RANKED one millionth on whatever list he was making.

The October film surprise is that no film will do any good- what a miserable month

The October film surprise is that no film will do any good- what a miserable month

[Nodding] Though that SOUNDS like sarcasm (Quick! The Ronco Irony Detector! [BEEP] [BEEP] [BEEP]), I'm beginning to think this is going to end up one of, if not the most, astute comments of all about October. Six, you been reading my chicken entrails? [Laughing]

I remain, as always...

Nico.

The more I keep reading the words "October Surprise", the more it sounds like a nasty baked-good at your high school cafeteria. Ick.

The more I keep reading the words "October Surprise", the more it sounds like a nasty baked-good at your high school cafeteria. Ick.

LOL! The point being, vive, perhaps, that "October Surprise" is served in high school cafeterias... in mid-December.

I remain, as always... (Hey, the meatloaf's green, just like the Jell-O! Surprise!)

Nico.

Yeah, it looks as though the biggest movie of october actually opened in september. I mean, I figured the game plan would do well. But it's momentumisn't really slowing as much as I though it would.

StnMan5, what you said there reminded me of my comments in the "What will 'rule' September?" thread, way back at the end of August...

...I suspect one or two of September's biggest films may actually open the last three days in August .

For those interested to see my prognosticatory abilities revealed as fraud, myth, or fantasy, here's more of what I had to say, and how I fared...

The Good:

The Kingdom is one of my personal top three most-anticipated films of the year, but I wonder if Iraq fatigue will hurt this film's chances. Not to put too fine a point on it, but this film could be anything from a $20M bomb to a $100M blockbuster. I'll be conservative, though, and call it for $50M, with lots of potential.

There's lots of time left, and Kingdom's already north of $31 million, with potentially a third week in the Top 5 still to come. $50 million looks like a sure thing, and everything else is gravy.

Halloween (2007), God help me, might actually make a splash... [with] $60M.

Michael Myers Rising looks to finish up just short of $58 million.

Into the Wild might be a stunner. It will nab fantastic reviews and may be one of the top PTA films of the year, period. I'll say $25M, 10 PTA, and (heh) climbing.

Wild's still on its way up, but I really, really doubt it will pass $12 million. On the other hand, Wild has rung up (as of this past weekend) 9 PTA points, and has a monster IMDb rating of 8.6.

In the Valley of Elah might do $5M with a handful of PTA points.

Valley's shadow is already lengthening, at $5.3 million, but it's going to outdistance my predictions by a bit, and with an early-'08 push as Tommy Lee Jones prepares his Oscars speech, this film might well end up north of $10 million. And it earned 3 PTA points, which qualifies as a "handful" in my book.

In the Shadow of the Moon might snare some PTA, too, but no more than 4, total.

Try half that: 2 PTA. Total.

Dragon Wars...looks to be written by a ninth-grade DM whose favorite films are Armageddon, Godzilla (yes, THAT one) and Reign of Fire. Please. This might as well have been called...Errorgon... $25M might be extremely generous.

I always say, You can't polish a turd. In fact, it might be my motto, if I had a motto. $12-$13 million, and Freestyle Releasing ought to be grateful for that.

If The Brave One...makes $40M I'll be very, very surprised.

It's just about out of the Top Ten at $34 million, but it might squeak past $40 million. Just.

.

..Pigs on Bikes, or whatever the Hell that film was earlier this year, grossed, what, $200M? ...I'll predict $35M for Mr. Woodcock.

Billy Bob Thornton's latest dope-us is at $22 million, and, mercifully, winding down. Call it $30, $32 million, tops.

The Bad:

3:10 to Yuma... is the slam-dunkiest prospect of...all; only fair-to-poor reviews will keep this entry under $60M. Still, even for a bevy of A-list celebrity millionaire playboys, $100M is pushing it. Call it $85M, and I hope I'm low-balling it.

Money's still trickling in (about $49 million, with a few million still out there), but at this point, $60 million may be "pushing it." Maybe a couple Oscar noms will warrant a late-season push or rerelease. But it'll be too, too late for THIS game...

I'll not be surprised if [Balls of Fury] does $75M...

[BZZZT!] Fury's all done, with not even half that, at $32 million.

Resident Evil: Extinction, I think, could be the highest-grossing of the series... Call it $70M, but I could be $10-$15M low on this one...

Um, yeah. Well, I was probably right about it being the trilogy's top earner (Apocalypse's mark was $51 million) but, with only $43 million in the bank, odds [heh] are that Extinction's already earned 70% or better of its ultimate total. It's still in the Top 5, but I'm going to call it for about $55 million right now.

Good Luck Chuck, I think, has all the makings of a slightly less profitable version of Knocked Up; I'll call it for $65M...it could go higher if women turn out the way they did for the Judd Apatow film.

Forget it, it's already out of the Top 5 and not even over $30 million yet. Call it $42 million. Lightning rarely strikes twice.

...Death Sentence, sorry to say, is D.O.A. [at] $25 million.

Kevin Bacon's attempt at channeling Charles Bronson was cold almost before it opened. It's got $9 million and no appeals left.

The 11th Hour...may do as much as $20M with continued media interest and a slow, deliberate rollout; and it's guaranteed 7 PTA points, minimum.

That's what I get for guaranteeing, though An Indifferent Truth did manage 5 PTA points in a single, glorious weekend. This high-concept vanity project got that "slow, deliberate rollout," all right, but fizzled at well under $1 million. We hit the snooze bar, I guess.

Self-Medicated will make a modest splash for a couple PTA points, I think.

Errrrrm... No.

The Ugly:

Westerns, on the other claw, I know. Jesse James COULD be Unforgiven, or, on the other hand, it COULD be... Wyatt Earp... Call it $65M. It will deserve better...

No, it definitely won't be Unforgiven ($101 million). Neither, I think, will it be Wyatt Earp ($25 million). Although at one point I was calling for this film to top $90 million, I think $9 million might be more likely at this point. Clearly, I don't know what I know, y'know?

The Jane Austen Book Club, Bordertown and The Darjeeling Limited could figure, also, but not much.

Well, I think I nailed Jane (1 PTA, minimal profitability), and Bordertown's been delayed. So far, so good... But The Darjeeling Limited's already a PTA monster, at 9 points and counting. All aboard!

The Game Plan... will likely earn $45M.

"This craptastic piece of shite" earned that in less than two weeks. It's bound for $65-$70 million. Perhaps more. I continued: "If this movie becomes the biggest hit of the month I shall shoot myself in the head with something. Like, a harpoon, or a TASER, or a SABO round, maybe." Stay tuned. ("Don't tase me, erm, me!")

I also predicted that Transformers in IMAX would earn "another $25M, easy, perhaps more." Um, yeah. That Kool-Aid tastes fine, by the way.

Too Close to Call:

Later on I'd forecast a cool $73 million for Across the Universe, but here's what I said six weeks ago:

$15M, easy...it could go as high as $25M. And it will snare at least 12 PTA points, guaranteed.

We're at better than $8 million, and its big mainstream push is still a few days away. But PTA's almost certainly done at 6 points.

Finally...

...I seriously doubt any of this month's offerings will actually cross the $100M threshhold.

So far, Resident Evil: Extinction and The Game Plan are neck-and-neck, at $43 million, and Resident Evil's all done. Nobody else comes close, or likely, will. The Game Plan is going to be a solid hit, no question, but it looks like that prediction, at least, is money.

...And, just for the record, when I said, "one or two of September's biggest films may actually open the last three days in August," I was pretty much on the mark. Halloween (2007) is at $57 million, $46 million of that coming in September; and Balls of Fury earned more than $26 million of its current $32 million total this past month.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.

Tuan, you're becoming the E! of these FM boards

I think the comebacks will do rather well. Remember how frickin awesome wedding crashers was/is. It'll could be one of the bigger movies of the month.

Just because it's 'from the producers of Wedding Crashers' doesn't mean it will even come close. Remember advertising Date Movie as 'from two of the writers of Scary Movie?' And that turned out to be a steaming pantload.

I don't doubt that The Comebacks will make money, but 20% of what Wedding Crashers made is about its limit, I think.

The biggest movie to open in October should be Saw 4. Michael Clayton is not going to be as huge as people think. There is not too much out there and nothing will come close to hitting the $100 million mark. Saw 4 should open large and then drop quickly, but its competition really isnt there. It should be the month's biggest box office producer, It will not really be strong in any other category however.

Of course its go no competition. Nobodys retarted enough to release anything near it. Especially around halloween.

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