My Studios

And this time surfer, you said exactly what I would have said. I completely agree with you Donte, if those great cheap picks are there like in April. I did the same thing. But in May, Mr. Lonely and The Edge of Heaven are about it. There are not always those key bargains that you speak of. The better FM gets at pricing, the less their will be, and the more difficult it will be to put together slates, like May has been.

Yeah May is a bit tougher and June looks pretty barren for small PTA picks. My theory is to stay away from any art house movie that costs more than 8-10 bucks. I got suckered into SOP for one slate (had to try)and 4 PTA for 12 bucks is crap. Mister Lonely and The Visitor are unbelievable picks and I either got lucky or am a genius (I think half and half of each LOL).

I just think that avoiding the summer blockbuster in favor of a few smaller movies that may equal it is a big gamble. It may work sometimes but lots of mid-range movies underperform in my experience. Smart People, Made of Honor, Leatherheads, etc.

There is a difference between mid rangers in april and mid rangers in june/july. Zohan, Get Smart, The Incredible Hulk are all much much surer bets than any of those mid-rangers you showed to have failed Donte.

alright geez and SS, get a room already!!

lol jk....but when someone you know over the internet starts finishing your thoughts for you....hehe, i'm just joshing....

so I just saw the new Hulk trailer, and it's got me worried!! mainly because from the 3 movies you mentioned, 'Hulk' was my most certain pick to flop, and the new trailer throws a heap of sand on that fire....but still, Smart, Hulk and Zohan will have to do one hell of a job to match Iron Man.... *CROSSES FINGERS*

I didn't have Pirates or Spidey in any of my slates last year (had Shrek in one of them), and I didn't do so hot. Knocked Up and Hairspray did help though.

I think it is hard to not have blockbusters on your slate. But, as mentioned before, last years blockbusters were soooo expensive, that it was kind of hard to just have that one movie and then the little ones that weren't going to do well. Shrek was 63 dollars!

Now, I'm throwing in blockbusters and picking sure fire mids and lows.

Which is why I have this as my May-July line up in BO:

$26 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
$13 Sex and the City
$23 Wall-E Jun. 27
$6 Hellboy II: The Golden Army
$19 The Dark Knight
$7 Mamma Mia!
$4 Step Brothers
$2 The X-Files: I Want to Believe

I agree with Ekin way back on the first page in that it really is all about value. The issue is, how well can you judge "value"?

If you are a poor judge it is probably better to go with the seed ranking (via price)/blockbusters since they are believed to be "safe".

Also, the group you are playing with makes a difference, if everyone is going mid-range it might be worth it to go blockbusters and blow everyone out since no one will have 2x blockbusters...and vice-versa.

Part of it is also to take into account whether you want to win out or just stay safe (Super Leagues). Riskier slates can pay dividends but is the immunity really worth it in like a Super League? Of course in a small personal league, "Second place is the first loser" IMO.

This game is a lot like investing in stocks actually...research helps and there's a lot of intuition/past performance trying to indicate future performance.

The winning BO slates in the May-July leagues will surely beat the $1.000.000.000 mark. I think mine might reach it as well. I decided to go with Iron Man, Indy, Wall-E, WHIV, Get Smart & HBII.

I really hope that Hulk does great. The trailer looks very cool and I have been waiting on a Hulk/Abomination throwdown onscreen since I was about 9. LOL
If the movie disappoints performance wise it won't be from my lack of trying. I will be seeing it opening night as well.
I have Get Smart and Zohan on a few slates along with the Hulk so I hope they all do well.

I definitely think My box office slate will pull in over a billion dollars, and all I did was grab the four biggest blockbuster, Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Wall-E, and The Dark Knight, and threw in Step Brothers with my last 4 bucks. Not very inventive at all, but I think it will prove to be highly cost effective. There is no way any of my big 4 fails. They could all clear 300 million, The Dark Knight only has 2 weeks, but it could clear 200 million in that time. That should give me over a billion. Box Office is a completely different animal from Ultimate. You don't have user ratings to deal with.

In one league, I almost did the same thing (studio name: Allison Janney). Differences: instead of Step Brothers, I chose The X-Files: I Want To Believe (which may outdo Step Brothers on opening weekend) and Kit Kittridge: An American Girl (which could be a surprise hit based on the book series' popularity and Abigail Breslin's drawing power).

And if that tracking on Indy holds up, that would kick ass!

I knew Indy was going to be big but the tracking numbers are showing a huge jump. Could it be a 150 Mil + OW?? That would be huge. would probably push Indy to 300 + million quickly.

I don't think $150m OW Donte, more likely about $120m, bumping it up to the $160m mark because of the 5 day weekend. But I would hazard a guess that it could reach $300m by its fourth weekend.

I really dont know how well Indy is going to do, but these are huge expectations. I really think that Indy might fail in the way that Pirates did last year. Now I'm not saying that Pirates failed, $309 Million is huge. There are only 26 movies that have made more than $300M. According to the Indiana Jones thread and its poll, 32% say for Iindiana Jones to be a hit it needs to make $350M+. There are only 12 movies which have made $350M+. When its all said and done though, i think Indy can pass $300m too.

binkley wrote:

I agree with Ekin way back on the first page in that it really is all about value. The issue is, how well can you judge "value"?

If you are a poor judge it is probably better to go with the seed ranking (via price)/blockbusters since they are believed to be "safe".

Also, the group you are playing with makes a difference, if everyone is going mid-range it might be worth it to go blockbusters and blow everyone out since no one will have 2x blockbusters...and vice-versa.

Part of it is also to take into account whether you want to win out or just stay safe (Super Leagues). Riskier slates can pay dividends but is the immunity really worth it in like a Super League? Of course in a small personal league, "Second place is the first loser" IMO.

This game is a lot like investing in stocks actually...research helps and there's a lot of intuition/past performance trying to indicate future performance.

I think this is very insightful Binkley, particularly the connection to the stock market. In the Super leagues I have thus far played a very conservative game. Smart play dictates doing enough to stay alive and not get eliminated. The time to win will come later when the final season rolls around. I find that one of the real tests here too is not caving in to impulse desire. I wanted 'Iron Man' on my slates badly, especially when I saw the early tracking. Doing that would have been short term gratification at the expense of my long term strategy. I think this is a trap that many players fall into.

I was actually thinking the 150 for the 5 day weekend of Indy, SS. It will get a bit of padding because of the extra 2 days. 110-120 sounds good for the 3 day weekend but as this is one of the only holidays I get off all year I count it as a major holiday. LOL

My Studios

ADVICE & ANALYSIS: