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The big question is, will HSM 3 repeat at 1 or will it drop like a rock? There are varying opinions all around how this weekend will play out for it. Some, like Weekend Warrior, are looking for a 43% drop while Mason is looking for a 58% drop.

Another questions is how big is The Changeling? Tracking is very strong, but will the weak theatre count hurt it's business?

Also, Zack and Miri is a factor that could possibly win the weekend for the cash strapped Weinsteins.

Numbers should be up in a couple hours.

JackO wrote:

The big question is, will HSM 3 repeat at 1 or will it drop like a rock? There are varying opinions all around how this weekend will play out for it.

Unfortunately, the one thing everyone seems to agree on is that HSM3 will be top of the pile ahead of Zack and Miri and Saw

Unfortunate is a relative term. Its definitely not unfortunate for me. No one should even question that it was always going to win consecutive weekends. That's why it was always such a valuable pick.

DHD Update!

FRIDAY PM: Halloween is always a lousy day for box office since everybody is too busy tricking or treating or partying to go to the movies. So today's grosses were expected to be down compared to the usual Friday's -- and they were. According to very early numbers, Twisted Picture/Lionsgate's Saw V made about $3 million today. And four other movies -- the two newcomers Zach And Miri Make a Porno and The Haunting of Molly Hartley, plus the expanded release of Changeling and last week's No. 1 High School Musical 3: Senior Year -- were bunched between $1.5 million and $2 million today. These figures will be refined as more information comes in... MO

FM Update

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Saw V (Lionsgate) - $3.3M, $1,070 PTA, $39M cume
2. NEW – Zack & Miri Make A Porno (Weinstein) - $2.3M, $841 PTA, $2.3M cume
3. Changeling (Universal) - $2.25M, $1,216 PTA, $32.92M cume
4. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $1.9M, $524 PTA, $48.61M cume
5. NEW – The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) - $1.5M, $566 PTA, $1.5M cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $1.1M, $683 PTA, $22.38M cume
7. Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) - $1M, $387 PTA, $9.35M cume
8. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $950,000, $316 PTA, $80.26M cume
9. Max Payne (Fox) - $900,000, $351 PTA, $32.75M cume
10. W. (Lionsgate) 890,000, $494 PTA, $20.83M cume
*RockNRolla (Warner Bros) - $500,000, $605 PTA, $1.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $9.5M, $2,620 PTA, $56.21M cume
2. Saw V (Lionsgate) - $9.1M, $2,951 PTA, $44.82M cume
3. Changeling (Universal) - $9M, $4,865 PTA, $9.67M cume
4. NEW – Zack & Miri Make A Porno (Weinstein) - $6.9M, $2,523 PTA, $6.9M cume
5. NEW – The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) - $4.3M, $1,621 PTA, $4.3M cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $3.9M, $2,424PTA, $25.2M cume
7. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $3.8M, $1,265 PTA, $83.1M cume
8. Max Payne (Fox) - $3.15M, $1,229 PTA, $35M cume
9. Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) - $3M, $1,161 PTA, $11.35M cume
10. W. (Lionsgate) - $2.93M, $1,629 PTA, $22.88M cume
*RockNRolla (Warner Bros) - $1.55M, $1,877 PTA, $2.17M cume

Zack and Miri
Look at the drops

There should be a huge Saturday jump. The last time that Halloween was on a Friday (2003), Friday was bad but Saturday really improved things and it still looked like a decent week (also on that week, Brother Bear almost managed a Number 1 spot despite opening on a Saturday).

I had no idea that Halloween affected the box office that much.

hmm, Half a million between HSM and Changeling. looks like Changeling could even make it to second place.

Wow, Mase is predicting $75-$80M total for HSM3. I so wish I didnt have it on my BO full year, but i'm glad that i didnt pick it up in the Ultimate.

As long as HSM3 stays on top, I'm happy.

Although I really hope Changeling does well, that movie was amazing.

WTH. I'm going with dranscht..I had NO idea Halloween factored in so much. HSM is going to win the weekend with under $10M? I'm absolutely floored by that. I'm even more bothered cus I have it in every league possible. Zack did not turn out to be the hit most people wanted. I'm sorry but those drops are just mindblowing.

Ok, we knew 'HSM3' was going to drop, and many of us suspected that it was going to drop savagely... but yikes. Before we buy into this box office take though, perhaps we should remember that the entire demographic who would have been out to see it last night were busy getting bags of candy filled instead.

Gonna be brutal for a lot of slates if the numbers remain this negative.

. . . .DHD's Saturday update

Saw V topped rivals with about $2.8 million today, a staggering drop of 80% over its debut a week ago, for an expected $9M weekend.

But Saw V should drop to No. 2 by Sunday as Universal's Oscar-touted Changeling directed by Clint Eastwood and starring Angelina Jolie expands into 1,850 theaters to takeover the #1 position, It took in $2.5 million Friday for what should be a big bump Saturday for a $11M weekend. Exit polling from the film's limited run a week ago showed that the grim but compelling adult pic nevetheless has strong commercial potential across a wide breadth of audiences. All ages and demos while both genders gave the film very high marks after its debut. The studio projects that Changeling should make around $8.5 million this weekend but also have legs. An appropriate comp would be Clint's 2003 Mystic River which on its wide break took in $10.4 million from 1,467 theaters and went on to do $90M.

Zack And Miri Make A Porno opening in 2,735 venues with just $2 million Friday for at most should be an $8M weekend and possibly No. 3.

High School Musical 3 was shockingly down 91% from its sensational opening a week ago to make $1.5 million Friday. ("Why is it high school kids who are always the victims on Halloween?" one rival studio bigwig emailed me.) But Disney anticipated that the Friday-to-Friday comparisons would be horrible because of the holiday. The Zac Efron starrer should recover on Saturday and Sunday for No. 3 or 4 and a $7.5M to $9M weekend (no one's quite sure...). Overseas, HSM3 has reached $56.5M while this weekend it opens in Italy, Belgium, Mexico and South Africa.

The Haunting Of Molly Hartley from Freestyle Releasing took advantage of the spooky holiday for a $1.7 million opening Friday but probably only a $6M weekend for No. 5.

Joel Silver's Dark Castle-produced, Warner Bros-distributed RockNRolla may make $2 million for the weekend as the Guy Ritchie-written and directed low-budgeter expands into 826 theaters.

That is an all-round horrible weekend. At the very least i thought Saw V would hold better because of Halloween. I also did NOT (nor do i think anyone) see the HSM3 drop coming. I knew it would drop big, but this is borderline ludicrous.

On top of it being Halloween and a Friday night, where I live (Chicago area) it was also unusually warm on Friday. I think even more kids trick or treated than usual.

I look at Halloween as a throwaway day for pretty much every single kind of movie except for ones like Saw/Molly Hartley. Every other demographic was probably either trick or treating, at a Halloween party or just staying home. Saturday should jump in a big way.

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