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silversurfer19 wrote:

I think you are being a little harsh on Bond, J.I. Remember, Batman Begins didn't set the world alight BO wise, but it rejuvinated the franchise and rose expectations for The Dark Knight. Now Im not saying it will reach similar figures, but Bond too has been rejuvinated since Casino Royale, and we have yet to see anything significant of Solace yet. By the time it is released Im sure anticipation will have risen for it.

The last two Bond movies had almost the exact same number of tickets sold. This one isn't going to be doubling that.

And Im sure you must be the first person to predict Iron Man to beat TDK, I just cannot see that happening.

I am predicting the Dark Knight to make around $275 million, which is about what Iron Man will end up with.

I see you forgot to mention Harry Potter and Indy, both of which will certainly beat Iron Man.

The reason I didn't mention Indy and Harry Potter is because I didn't have an argument against them. They both will definately beat Iron Man.

I see your point regarding Bond, J.I, but I just think that it is far too early to speculate whether IM will be in the top 5 come the end of the year. We do not know how a lot of other movies will perform yet, and it's only because IM is the first out of the blocks that its numbers look so good.

I guess its just a case of wait and see.

I don't know. If IM hits 300 million, it'll defintely be up there on the list of movie. It depends on this weekends drop though. Thursday is a very important day for IM.

Judging from the competition I think that Iron Man has almost no chance anymore of $300 million. But its not impossible. I think it will make about $265-280 million, but I hope it hits $300 million.

well J.I, wish granted.... Iron Man came in to the weekend on $188 mil, and will be leaving with a 3-day of $32, bumping it up to $220 mil....i sense a huge chunk of the $300 mil already grossed....i'm sure Iron Man can gross another $80 mil in the next 5 weeks....

let's consider a scenario where Iron Man drops by 50% every week:

Upcoming Weekdays: $12 mil (??)
Weekend: $16 mil
Week 2: $8 mil
Weekend 2: $8 mil
Week 3: $6 mil
Weekend 3: $7 mil (around where blockbusters level off and pick up similar numbers in consecutive weeks)
Week 4: $5 mil
Weekend 4: $6 mil
Week 5: $5 mil
Weekend 5: $5 mil

Add up : = $78 mil

And there you go....also, note that I've assumed a 50% drop until the leveling off, and if Iron Man has shown us anything, it's that it exceeds expectations week in and week out.

Whoa, major suckage.

The year's not even half over yet, and already it's clear I had no frakkin' IDEA what the Hell I was doing in this Contest: Horton (my #10) hobbled to only $150M, Speed Racer (#9) hit the wall on Turn 1, and Star Trek ( #8n), improbably, warped entirely out of the quadrant for the calendar year. Caspian's no Prince, and, Hell, I didn't even HAVE Iron Man, like a total friggin' jerk. Oh, well... At least I didn't select Cloverfield, right?

Maybe I'll get lucky with the top half of my slate, but, really, at the rate I'm going, I may be fortunate to choose HALF of the year's Top 10 earners... So much for what I initially took to be pretty much a slam-dunk. Like the saying goes, nobody knows nuthin'.

[1] Wall-E
[2] Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
[3] The Dark Knight
[4] Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
[5] The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
[6] Get Smart!
[7] Quantum of Solace
[8] Star Trek
[9] Speed Racer
[10] Horton Hears a Who

I remain, as always... Embarrassed.

Another one movie bites the dust

Narnia 2 isn't a super-flop like Speed Racer (no more than 64-65 MM in total), but... still... with just 56-57 MM USD estimated in the opening weekend, it's way behind Narnia 1 - 65.56 MM USD on opening weekend. Comparing with the first installment of realm of Narnia, it won't have a 4.45 multiplier (291.71 total), more likely a 3.34

multiplier (because of the next strong competitors)... so a 185-190 max. in the end, if not even 150-160... Why, oh, why, the producers didn't release it on Christmas 2008 or in November??!!!... Surely, the box office were greater...
That's why, we can have some surprises-hits at the end of this year, when we'll see the top 10

Speed Racer, definitely, but even Horton and Narnia 2 have chances to "avoid" the first 10 movies

Another thought: maybe most of the people are preserving their money for Indy 4

who knows, maybe even more than 150 MM USD after the Thu-Mon release

we'll see...

Nico, my friend , don't be embarrassed, you're right, "nobody knows nuthin'" about box offices of future movies... and nobody is prophet in his country (jokin')

che sera, sera! I'm waitin' with impatience Indy 4 and The Dark Knight...

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull did $100,137,835 in its first weekend and has an estimated $159,563,051 after only 6 days ! What do you think about its' total run? It will be between: 330-360 MM USD, or an optimistically 470-490 MM USD?? Either way, we'll have BanksIsDaFuture un-happy. He was the only one mogul who hasn't chosen it...
If you remember few months ago, someone - Lili, has the idea that all the ranks from 2 to 25 to give (each one) a DVD to the winner. A few agreed. I, personally, was happy with this idea. BUT, what about this one: instead of one single winner, to have the first 3 - gold, silver and bronze medal

- prized? This could be more stimulative/ challenging (especially for a future contest - 2009 super-contest

My complete idea is:
- Rank 1 - The Mogul of the moguls

- will be prized with 11 DVDs - from ranks 4-14
- Rank 2 - First runner-up - 7 DVDs - from ranks 15-21 and
- Rank 3 - Second runner-up - 4 DVDs - from ranks 22-25.
Like Nico said, the DVD will be symbolically. It can be no more than $5 worth... creativity and uniqueness is appreciated.

Until your opinion with my proposal... what about Sex and the City?
We had 7 betters on it: geezer9687, numbersix_99, JackO, BanksIsDaFuture, BrentBaines, transformers2, Alyson
Guys, do you actually think that this movie can be among the first 10 of the year ?!!
I can't think of more than 30-40 MM USD on opening weekend, and more than The Devil Wears Prada did last year - $124,740,460 after its total run... Probably 70-90 MM USD... what about you?

$470 million for Indiana Jones is REALLY optimistic. I think it tops out around or a little over $300 million.

Delf, I like having a Top 3 prize winners.

Fortunately, I still have a chance considering I didn't put Prince Caspian on my list. Go Sex and the City!

I'm thinking that I really am not agreeing to that whole give the winners a DVD thing. Do we have to, delfinasu? And if I win (or get 2nd or 3rd) I don't want to receive any DVDs either.

As for Indiana Jones, honestly delfinasu, your predictions are WAY too high. I mean like a movie opening to $5 million and you say it will hit $150 million total, high. It will barely hit $300 million. $490 million is absolutely impossible. It has no bigger chance of getting that high than Postal does.

And yes, delfinasu, Sex and the City could be one of the Top 10 movies of the year. It should open to around $40 million but it has the potential to go way higher than that. It should easily make $100 million total.

Guys, maybe I was misunderstood... I'm expecting just 330, max. $360 M for Indy 4. More than $400, I agree with you, it's really optimistic... So, who'll top Indiana this year? Will it be The Dark Knight, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince or/ and WALL-E?! What's your opinion?
@J.I.: Do you (numbersix_99, too) really think that a movie with a little more than $100 million total (Sex and the City and others...) could be one of the Top 10 (Box Office speaking... of course!) movies of the year? As for prizes, you don't have to... It was just an idea/ proposal. Let's see what others are thinkin'...

No it won't be one of the Top 10 movies of the year. It will probably get around 20th place. Maybe lower. I just thought you were underpredicting it a bit by saying that it won't hit the $100 million mark.

And it will be hard for anything to top Indy. If it has bad legs it could be topped, but since its playing like a family film I say it will be the biggest movie of the year.

delfinasu you are kinda acting like we chose our lists yesterday. We were limited to choosing our lists at the begining of january. We didn't even know all of the release dates at that point. Its tough to know what a movie will do 5 months before it comes out. When I picked my list, I had never even heard of Hancock. That's why it is now a glaring absense. Sure now I don't think that Sex and the City will make the top 10, and I definitely think Hancock will. But you can't fault me for taking a movie from one of the most successful television series ever over a movie that 5 months ago i had never heard of. Its a very difficult competition.

Quick question though: Do our rankings of the order even matter anymore? How is this going to work with the final score? Is it going to be who gets the most films from the top 10 or the one who picked the films with the highest total gross. Theoretically, banks could have picked 9 out of 10 right, but not having Indiana Jones might mean he didn't have the highest grossing film of the year. How is it going to work?

EDIT: Yes J.I. I am well aware of my count. I am probably going to have to disappear for a few days as I have my 1000th post already planned. Trust me, I have it under control. Thanks for the heads up though!

EDIT TO MY EDIT: Nevermind! I can't believe I let all the haters get me down on Sex and the City. I knew this was going to be a huge hit, I just went along with everyone else and said "naw, its R-rated, that will stop every woman everywhere from seeing it." Man, women go nuts for this shit, and these numbers prove it. Having it here is seriously a great consolation for not having it in any of my slates. 70 million woohoo!

Its going to be whoever has the highest total gross.

And geezer, you might want to look at your post count.

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