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i dont understand why everyones's top 5 has Baby Mama falling by over 60%...it will get hit by vegas but not that hard. Baby mama should see at least 5.5mill

I was waiting for the Tuesday numbers . . .anyways, here it goes

Iron Man $47

Speed Racer $40

WHIV $30

MoH $10

Baby Mama $6.5

[quote=JackO]I was waiting for the Tuesday numbers . . .anyways, here it goes

MoH $10

[/quote]

I highly doubt made of honor will only drop 30%. A 30 mill opening for vegas means a huge drop for moh

Mathematics, being my achilles heel (not, you know, literally...) I may have this totally wrong (and forgive a poor fool if I do), but I'm approaching this from a PTA rather than opening weekend gross. I don't think 'WHIV' has any hope of more than a 30 million dollar weekend. I doubt it'll do more than $20 million. A $30 million opening would be PTA of just over $9,000. Far too much competition! $20 million has a better chance since the PTA would be closer to $6,000. I'm thinking 17-18. 'Speed Racer' looks horrible but the money pumped into advertising should save it from 3rd place or lower. I just don't think 'WHIV' looks strong enough. Nothing in the faintly damning reviews released so far make me think that there is any extra kind of draw to attract people to it. I'm reading arguments for why the movie will do well, it's on a ton of my slates but my A_Roode sense is tingling: time to abandon ship.

well, Roode, i might regret this, but imo Vegas was never supposed to open above 3rd place - i mean it'd be a great bonus if it beat speed racer but no one expected it to - and i also believe that if the two open within 4-5 mil of each other, then Vegas might slip over Racer in next week's T5 order. and it costs a mere $7, which is a good price for a movie that picks up about 5 T5, 2-3 PTA, about 40-50 mil and a mediocre IMDB (4?? 5??).... again, i might regret this decision, but unless i find out Vegas is opening to less than 15 mil, i'm sticking with her.

1. Iron Man $54 mil
2. Speed Racer $37.5 mil
3. What Happens in Vegas $22.5mil
4. Made of Honor $8 mil.
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall $4.25 mil

Got to be a little different that the maddening crowd. FSM has legs, let's see if she uses them for one more weekend.

nickb1016 wrote:

i dont understand why everyones's top 5 has Baby Mama falling by over 60%...it will get hit by vegas but not that hard. Baby mama should see at least 5.5mill

Because from tomorrow there will be 3 chick flicks in the cinemas. Someone is going to take a big hit. I personally think it's gonna be What Happens in Vegas, but we'll see. Oh yes, we'll see.

Way to buck the system Synestro. I wouldn't mind if Baby Mama dropped from sight. I do have it on a slate but that was a hedge bet against good taste. I think that movie looked terrible.

And if The Visitor gets any more PTA I am going to start dancing. A combination Elaine Benes dance mixed with a bit of Travolta from Pulp Fiction and a touch of Robert Carlyle's Full Monty should be sufficient to celebrate more than 12 PTA for 6 bucks. LOL

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FM's Early Friday Estimates

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $14.75M - $3,588 PTA - $141.38M cume
2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $6.5M - $1,803 PTA - $6.5M cume
3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $6.25M - $1,944 PTA - $6.25M cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $2.61M - $955 PTA - $21.2M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $1.98M - $755 PTA - $36.5M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $1.32M- $558 PTA - $48.2M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $1.23M - $547 PTA - $28.7M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $525,000 - $305 PTA - $46.5M cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) - $490,000 - $334 PTA - $42.2M cume
10. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $320,000 - $233 PTA - $415,000 cume
11. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $305,000 - $191 PTA - $43.2M cume
12. 21 (Sony) - $240,000 - $245 PTA - $79.8M cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) - $138,000 - $636 PTA - $1.8M cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $90,000 - $588 PTA - $495,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $70,000 - $483 PTA - $1.1M cume
*Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $31,000 - $861 PTA - $104,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $25,000 - $1,667 PTA - $95,000 cume
*NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $18,927 - $2,103 PTA - $18,927 cume
*NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $11,736 - $1,304 PTA - $11,736 cume
*NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $7,201 - $379 PTA - $7,201 cume
*Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $3,565 - $713 PTA - $27,000 cume
*NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $1,836 - $1,836 PTA - $1836 cume
*NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $1,774 - $1,774 PTA - $1,774 cume
*NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $1,325 - $1,325 PTA - $1,325 cume
*NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 PTA - $1,162 cume
*NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $988 - $494 PTA - $988 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Iron Man (Paramount) – $47.67M - $11,596 PTA - $174.3M cume
2. NEW – Speed Racer (Warner Bros) - $27.91M - $7,742 PTA - $27.91M cume
3. NEW – What Happens in Vegas (Fox) - $23.48M - $7,305 PTA - $23.4M cume
4. Made of Honor (Sony) - $7.83M - $2,865 PTA - $26.5M cume
5. Baby Mama (Universal) – $5.84M - $2,226 PTA - $40.5M cume
6. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) - $4.18M- $1,758 PTA - $51.1M cume
7. Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo (Warner Bros) - $3.71M - $1,640 PTA - $31.2M cume
8. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) - $1.89M - $1,096 PTA - $47.9M cume
9. Prom Night (Sony) - $1.39M - $953 PTA - $43.1M cume
10. Nim’s Island (Fox) - $1.28M- $800 PTA - $44.2M cume
11. 21 (Sony) - $744,000 - $761 PTA - $80.3M cume
12. Redbelt (Sony Classics) - $880,000 - $450 PTA - $975,000 cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) - $540,000 - $2,488 PTA - $2.2M cume
*Then She Found Me (Thinkfilm) - $380,000 - $2,484 PTA - $785,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) - $290,000 - $2,000 PTA - $1.3M cume
*Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) - $115,000 - $3,194 PTA - $188,000 cume
*Roman De Gare (IDP/Samuel Goldwyn) - $103,000 - $6,867 PTA - $173,000 cume
*NEW – The Fall (Roadside Attractions) - $67,000 - $7,444 PTA - $67,000 cume
*NEW – Before the Rains (Roadside Attractions) - $43,000 - $4,778 PTA - $43,000 cume
*NEW – The Babysitters (Peace Arch) - $25,000 - $1,316 PTA - $25,000 cume
*Mr. Lonely (IFC Films) - $10,750 - $2,150 PTA - $34,000 cume
*NEW – Bloodline (Cinema Libre) - $6,426 - $6,426 PTA - $6,426 cume
*NEW – Surfwise (Magnolia) - $6,386 - $6,386 PTA - $6,386 cume
*NEW – America the Beautiful (Arenas Entertainment) - $4,704 - $4,704 PTA - $4,704 cume
*NEW – The Tracey Fragments (ThinkFilm) - $4,183 PTA - $4,183 PTA - $4,183 cume
*NEW – Noise (ThinkFilm) - $3,557 - $1,778 PTA - $3,557 cume

Notables

-Saturday will be the big deciding factor between Speed and Vegas

-Iron Man looking for another clean sweep

-Noise looks like a great Bankrupts pick

-Vegas looks like an amazing bargain even if the numbers stay the same

-Looks like a battle for the PTA ages for the last spot with Made of Honor up by a couple hundred dollars.

-It will be interesting to see how BOM compares.

So it looks like Son of Rambow might grab another 2 PTA points, for a total of five.

Well, that makes the $12 I spent on it go down a little easier. That makes me feel a little better.

Any predictions as to what IM will have by the end of May? $220? $250?

Yeah, the PTA column looks to me like:

IM
Racer
Vegas
Rambow
THE VISITOR!!??!!

OMG heads are gonna roll for this one....and i mean random heads of people i walk past in the street on my rampage of serial killing!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR....

Seriously, though, what is up with that movie??!! Just give up and DIE already!!

I know, compared to what Speed Racer is priced at and what its going to get, its not worth it, but i still think that it was a horrible bankrupts pick. Whoever has it is going to get 4 Top5, 4 PTA, $25ish Million. Along with 2-3 Top5, 1-2 PTA and $25 million more.

As JackO said, if these numbers hold for WHIV it's still worth its price. Too bad a whole lot of people had this on their slates.

AAAARRRRRGG! For the life of me I don't know why I didn't have The Visitor on my Apr-Jun slate. I had it in both Feb. and March leagues. Those friggin dollar $ign$ distracted me, I guess.

Oh Snap! Take a look at Box Office Mojo Has in Store for us!

Friday Estimates

*Numbers in the millions

Top 5

1. Iron Man - 15,3

2. What Happens in VEGAS - 6,7

3. Speed Racer -5,85

4. Made of Honor - 2,45

5. Baby Mama - 1,89

YEa Nikki Finke has WHIV taking second place on friday too. We'll have to see what kind of saturday bump Speed Racer and WHIV get before knowing which one will take second for the weekend. I say Speed Racer, even the bad kid movies ususally get a good saturday matinee bump. Unless it just fails miserably.

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