My Studios

Digital purchases of movies will never overtake physical media, it will NEVER.

People love the fact that you can just pick up a DVD and store it in a collection, and show it off to people.

Even if the price of digital movies is greatly below the price of physical media, the market share for physical media will always surpass it.

EmmanuelLubezki wrote:

Digital purchases of movies will never overtake physical media, it will NEVER.

People love the fact that you can just pick up a DVD and store it in a collection, and show it off to people.

Even if the price of digital movies is greatly below the price of physical media, the market share for physical media will always surpass it.

you'll be eating your words before too long... look at music.... people said the exact same thing... yet, music is slowly becoming almost exclusively digital.. (the sales numbers don't reflect it because the music industry refuses to adapt--encouraging most people to continue downloading illegally).. for movies, physical media will obviously last a lot longer--but it, too, is on its way out..

Digital purchases of movies will never overtake physical media, it will NEVER. ...People love the fact that you can just pick up a DVD and store it in a collection, and show it off to people. Even if the price of digital movies is greatly below the price of physical media, the market share for physical media will always surpass it.

Tend to agree, Lubezki, but I'm willing to admit mine may be a generational bias, like my aversion to MySpace, text messaging and Bluetooth. I don't really download; as you say, I like the prestige, the tactile sensations and satisfactions of OWNING something, of seeing it in my collection and pulling it out to show to friends.

However, times, they are a-changin'. I'm not changing with them, I'm just waving politely as they pass by me, right along with everyone I know.

Spannaus:

[Y]ou'll be eating your words before too long... look at music.... people said the exact same thing... yet, music is slowly becoming almost exclusively digital.. (the sales numbers don't reflect it because the music industry refuses to adapt--encouraging most people to continue downloading illegally).. for movies, physical media will obviously last a lot longer--but it, too, is on its way out..

What he said. Next, we'll be abandoning our physical bodies entirely, becoming impulses of pure energy and using black holes and quasars to navigate the multiverse.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

There's no need to upgrade from DVD. Ever.

I don't understand what's wrong with DVDs as a way to watch movies. Okay, VHS yeah. They sucked the rewinding, the wear and tear all that stuff. The fact that you can't really watch any extra features willingly.

But DVD is fine just the way it is. I personally couldn't care less about picture clarity. I can see the picture just fine. As long as my DVD plays the movie, I don't have to worry much about rewinding or fast forwarding, and I can watch special features in the order that I want to, I am NOT changing over. And if there comes a day when DVDs are obsolete and all you can buy is BLU-Ray, I'll start scavenging old record shops instead of Best Buy. But I am not wasting more money on a technology that isn't necessary.

man, i know some old cooks who never moved past vinyl.. but that doesn't mean the world isn't gonna keep on movin right along without em

Some responses, one annoyed...

StnMan:

There's no need to upgrade from DVD. Ever.

I tend to agree, but I realize that there will come a time when no one is manufacturing "classic" DVD players, anymore. With the speed at which technology is changing, I'd suspect the higher-end DVD systems will begin to be phased out within five years, and that ten years from now you'll have to go to Wal-Mart or CVS to find one in the States (excepting eBay, of course). It frustrates me that, just as I've gotten to a point when I'm fairly satifsfied with my DVD collection -- something over a thousand titles, I can't be bothered to count -- it's time to update formats again. I mean, I didn't give up on my VHS collection until 1997 or 1998... All that wasted money, buying Aliens: Special Edition, Terminator, Star Wars, etc., on the "new" format, and now I have to start basically from scratch again. Like my man Tyler Durden says, An entire generation pumping gas... waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate, so we can buy shit we don't need. ...We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars.... [T]he bi-products of lifestyle obsession. Damn, I love that film, even more than the book, I think.

I don't understand what's wrong with DVDs as a way to watch movies. Okay, VHS yeah. They sucked the rewinding, the wear and tear all that stuff. The fact that you can't really watch any extra features willingly.

This is a fairly simplistic and inevitable comparison, but DVDs are to VHS what CDs are to casette tapes. Of course, the music industry has tried to introduce next-generation technologies to supplement and replace CDs, to no avail. Maybe it's as Spannaus says, there IS no (physical) next-gen audio medium. Maybe it's already here, in the form of downloads and file sharing technologies.

...[If] there comes a day when DVDs are obsolete and all you can buy is BLU-Ray, I'll start scavenging old record shops instead of Best Buy.

I used to have a fairly extensive record collection, myself, until most of it got melted in a house fire five or six years ago. Even then, acquiring good record needles (man, I sound old, like I'm talking about buggy whips or telegraphs or cotton gins, or something) was a real test of one's ingenuity, persistence and patience.

...I am not wasting more money on a technology that isn't necessary.

[Snort] It's official, then, StnMan: You and I are the Fantaverse's own Luddites. The last one of us needs to remember to turn off the gas lamp when we leave. [Grin]

Spannaus:

...[M]an, i know some old [kooks? coots? Screw it...] who never moved past vinyl...

Ah. Hem.

...[But] that doesn't mean the world isn't gonna keep on movin right along without em...

[Nodding] Too true. My '78 ( that's, 1878n) prairie schooner can't really keep up on the Interstate, although I keep the "hazard" blinkers (two lamps burning chloride salt, placed in the back corners of the wagon, that I turn on and off rapidly) on. DPS gets pretty pissed at all the horseapples, tho.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

There's no need to upgrade from DVD. Ever.

I don't understand what's wrong with DVDs as a way to watch movies. Okay, VHS yeah. They sucked the rewinding, the wear and tear all that stuff. The fact that you can't really watch any extra features willingly.

But DVD is fine just the way it is. I personally couldn't care less about picture clarity. I can see the picture just fine. As long as my DVD plays the movie, I don't have to worry much about rewinding or fast forwarding, and I can watch special features in the order that I want to, I am NOT changing over. And if there comes a day when DVDs are obsolete and all you can buy is BLU-Ray, I'll start scavenging old record shops instead of Best Buy. But I am not wasting more money on a technology that isn't necessary.

This is exactly the same as I feel about this whole blu-ray bullshit. I posted pretty much the same thing on another thread on the same topic. Why the hell do I need a $400 blu ray player, with discs costing $30 each for a single movie. DVD quality is pretty damn impressive if you ask me. Ask anyone if they want to compare it to what we use to have with VHS. It is a considerable upgrade. I don't see the upgrade that substantial in quality when I look at blu rays. It is better, but its not worth it. Like you said, the difference is in the no lnger need to rewind, the special features, all of that is the same in both media. So why the hell would I need to change, and rebuy all my movies on a new format. It is such a waste.

Like my man Tyler Durden says, An entire generation pumping gas... waiting tables; slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate, so we can buy shit we don't need. ...We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars.... [T]he bi-products of lifestyle obsession.

Great use of a great quote Nico. I swear a lot of the lines in that movie sum up my philosophy on life. My favorite has got to be On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

again, not only do blu-ray players play dvds--most blu-ray players will UPSCALE your dvds.. so there really is no reason to "start over" with your collection..

geez.. i'm startin to sound like a blu-ray salesman...

the thing is: i'm rarely excited about new technologies.. i'm especially cautious of gimmicks and novelties... but, the fact is, this one is legit.. luddites aside, embrace it!

where are the movie fanatics who actually WANT to see the medium of our favorite artform actually IMPROVE?

The thing that I (and it seems others) is this this is about 2 steps forward in a world where technology is improving by leaps and bounds. Unless somehow blue-ray players begin pricing around the same as a vanilla dvd player, I'm simply not going to buy it.
Ultimately as mentioned, if the world reaches a point where only Blu-Ray is available in hard copy, I will move to soft copy only. I personally expect a new medium entirely before it reaches that point.

well, here's how i look at it: people have been trying to recreate the cinema experience for almost a century... between the advent of flat, widescreen HDTVs and Blu-Ray technology, we're taking a HUGE step towards the "home theater" ideal...

naturally, as with any new technology, people are going to be wary of the investment in terms of cost and convenience.. and then there's always the people who are too stubborn and/or set in their ways to adapt..

but, as always, the cost eventually goes down and the younger generation embraces it.... and then it's too late.. you can choose to be a dinosaur, but my money is on most of you naysayers giving up in the next few years and making the switch..

i mean, not to harp on this point, but: upscaling blu-ray players take your CURRENT library and makes it BETTER... we're not starting over, we're moving forward

HDTVs are already becoming the standard--and once you're there, you WILL see the difference between a standard 480i dvd player and a 1080p blu-ray player..

also, you can't discount the influence of the PS3.. once that takes control of the gaming market (which it is projected to, eventually), sales of blu-ray discs are really gonna take off..

Spannaus:

...[W]here are the movie fanatics who actually WANT to see the medium of our favorite artform actually IMPROVE?

[Shrug] I dunno, but I can tell you where the people are who USED to be movie-technology fanatics, who DID invest in improvements in the medium, are: Broke. You see, ten years ago, they spent all their money during the last upgrade, and, well, they're determined that history not repeat itself quite so soon.

becs:

Ultimately as mentioned, if the world reaches a point where only Blu-Ray is available in hard copy, I will move to soft copy only. I personally expect a new medium entirely before it reaches that point.

My point.

Back to Spannaus:

...[N]aturally, as with any new technology, people are going to be wary of the investment in terms of cost and convenience.. and then there's always the people who are too stubborn and/or set in their ways to adapt..

Guilty. Also guilty.

...[A]s always, the cost eventually goes down and the younger generation embraces it.... and then it's too late..

EXACTLY, because by THAT time, there's a NEW hot, new technology.

...[Y]ou can choose to be a dinosaur...

Careful, the T-Rex was pretty formidable in its day...

...[But], my money is on most of you naysayers giving up in the next few years and making the switch..

Like I said, I already have a Blu-ray. But, look, I get what you're saying about compatibility, Spannaus, and of course you're right -- at least, so far -- but the fact is, the NEW, Blu-ray versions of films I already have on DVD are doubtless going to have more special features, and of course higher clarity of image and sound, than the ones I currently own, so there'll be pressure to upgrade -- again -- and you (and content providers) KNOW it. Yeah, fine, I'm complaining about being a good little brainless capitalist sheep, but it's still a valid point: There will be enormous pressure, not all of it imagined, on consumers to re-purchase new versions of their old favorites. Not to mention, eventually DVD as a format will disappear, just as VHS did a couple years back. And the newer, Blu-ray discs are more expensive than the older DVDs, and I don't see them EVER being comparably priced, market forces aside, sorry.

...[I mean]...upscaling blu-ray players take your CURRENT library and makes it BETTER... we're not starting over, we're moving forward...

I suspect you own stock in Sony, Spannaus.

HDTVs are already becoming the standard--and once you're there, you WILL see the difference between a standard 480i dvd player and a 1080p blu-ray player..

Like I said, pressure. You're making my point for me.

...[A]lso, you can't discount the influence of the PS3.. once that takes control of the gaming market (which it is projected to, eventually), sales of blu-ray discs are really gonna take off..

I think we're already there, in spirit if not in fact.

Again -- I love Blu-ray. I just wish I could go an entire decade without having to switch formats. That's my only criticism. I'm not REALLY a Luddite. (Though I haven't yet enabled my phone's Bluetooth... It's possible that's just apathy and all-around laziness, however.)

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Nicodemus wrote:

Blu-ray discs are more expensive than the older DVDs, and I don't see them EVER being comparably priced, market forces aside, sorry.

Nico:

i got Blazing Saddles, The Departed, Goodfellas, and Superman I for $58... they came in a boxset, but they are individually packaged.. that's $14.50 a piece... that's from amazon.. the product was new (opposed to used), and it's not even a "sale"...

also:

your point about "pressure" is a complaint about the progression of technology in a capitalist economy--not about blu-ray... i mean, should we limit the availability of scientific and technological advances to set intervals in order to avoid the casual consumer feeling "pressure" to buy stuff?

nobody's putting a gun to your head... hell, society collectively rejected SACDs (and countless other "advances"), we can always do it again.. it's just that, in this instance, i think we should go with it.. (and then my sony stock will rise, rise, RISE!)

I understand where the Blu Rayers are coming from.

I think the thing people have a problem with is time and money.

How long after VHS did the DVD come along? DVD, surprisingly, became popular a little over 10 years ago.

Before that, VHS has been in the game since the early 80's. The first Blockbuster opened up in 1985. Some people still use their VHS, mostly to record onto their VCR.
I didn't get a DVD player until around 2003. Which goes to money issues.

Going from VHS to DVD is a no-brainer. Better quality, you can skip chapters and rewind faster, get special features. Numbers of reasons.

Going from DVD to Blu-Ray is a harder sell. The only difference is a few pixels. Most Americans don't know much about pixels, compared to people like us. Plus, you have to buy a whole new device to play it.

Some people aren't willing to transfer yet. Maybe in about 4-5 years, but not now.

[Sigh] Responding...

Nico:

[I got] Blazing Saddles, The Departed, Goodfellas, and Superman I for $58...individually packaged.. that's $14.50 a piece... that's from amazon.. the product was new (opposed to used), and it's not even a "sale"...

Okay, point taken. I buy most of my Blu-rays from Best Buy or Fry's, and they're usually $6-$8 higher than "standard" DVDs... Online shopping is another thing I don't do as much as the younger generation, I suspect... (Luddite!)

...[Y]our point about "pressure" is a complaint about the progression of technology in a capitalist economy...

Yes.

...[N]ot about [Blu]-ray...

No, not specifically. I agree.

...[S]hould we limit the availability of scientific and technological advances to set intervals in order to avoid the casual consumer feeling "pressure" to buy stuff?

Yes. [Laughing] No, look, I get what you're saying, Spannaus, I do. And maybe I'm just being a curmudgeon about this. As I said, I own a Blu-ray player, and will likely own another before the end of the year. I just wish I weren't investing in new technology with the absolute CERTAINTY that it, and possibly the media it employs, will be obsolete by 2020. That's all I'm saying, and I doubt I'm the only one.

However, I must also admit that it's likely there will be NOTHING, from a mass-production standpoint I mean, to replace Blu-ray; that it will all be file formatting standards and compression processes by then, and that we'll simply download movies to our next-generation display screens, which will be more computer than OUR computers, by then, anyway.

...[I think] we should go with it...and then my sony stock will rise, rise, RISE!

I knew it. [Grin]

lilly: Good points re: VHS / DVD / M-O-U-S-E.

Most Americans don't know much about pixels, compared to people like us.

So sorry I'm a Philistine. [Grin]

Some people aren't willing to transfer yet. Maybe in about 4-5 years, but not now.

We-elllll... Not to underscore my great good friend Spannaus' point, or anything, but the fact of the matter is this: Adoption of new technology will ALWAYS be too soon for many, and too late for some. And that's just the way it is... Some things'll never change... That's just the way it is... Oh, but don't you believe the-em... [Grin]

I remain, as always...

Nico.

It's official:

[from FOXNews.com:]

Toshiba Discontinues HD DVD Format, Hands Sony Victory
Tuesday, February 19, 2008

TOKYO — Toshiba said Tuesday it will no longer develop, make or market HD DVD players and recorders, handing a victory to rival Blu-ray disc technology in the major format war in next-generation video.

"We concluded that a swift decision would be best," Toshiba President Atsutoshi Nishida told reporters at his company's Tokyo office.

The move would make Blu-ray -- backed by Sony Corp., Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., which makes Panasonic brand products, and five major Hollywood movie studios -- the winner in the battle over high-definition DVD formatting that began several years ago.

Nishida said a decision by Warner Bros. Entertainment to release movie discs only in the Blu-ray format made the move inevitable, although his company had confidence in HD DVD as a technology.

"That had tremendous impact," he said. "If we had continued, that would have created problems for consumers, and we simply had no chance to win."

Warner joined Sony Pictures, Walt Disney Co. and News Corp.'s Twentieth Century Fox in that move.

Nishida tried to assure the estimated 1 million people in the world who already bought HD DVD machines by promising that the company will provide continued product support for HD DVD.

Nishida said it was still uncertain what will happen with the Hollywood studios that signed to produce HD DVD movies, including Universal Studios, Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation.

Toshiba's pulling the plug on the technology is expected to reduce the number of new high-definition movies that people will be able to watch on HD DVD machines.

Toshiba Corp. said shipments of HD DVD machines to retailers will be reduced and will stop by end of March.

Both HD DVD and Blu-ray deliver crisp, clear high-definition pictures and sound, which are more detailed and vivid than existing video technology. They are incompatible with each other, and neither plays on older DVD players. But both formats play on high-definition TVs.

HD DVD was touted as being cheaper because it was more similar to previous video technology, while Blu-ray boasted bigger recording capacity.

Only one video format has been expected to emerge as the victor, much like VHS trumped Sony's Betamax in the video format battle of the 1980s.

Now, sales in Blu-ray gadgets are likely to pick up, as consumers have held off in investing in the latest recorders and players because they didn't know which format would emerge dominant.

Despite being a possible blow to Toshiba's pride, the exit would likely be good for business. Goldman Sachs has said such a move would improve Toshiba's profitability between 40 billion yen (US$370 million; euro253 million) and 50 billion yen (US$463 million; euro316 million) a year.

The reasons behind Blu-ray's triumph over HD DVD are complex, as marketing, management maneuvers and other factors are believed to have played into the shift to Blu-ray's favor that became more decisive during the critical holiday shopping season.

Once the balance starts tilting in favor of one in a format battle, then the domination tends to grow and become final, said Kazuharu Miura, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo.

"The trend became decisive I think this year," he said. "When Warner made its decision, it was basically over."

Toshiba's official press release announcing their discontinuation of the HD DVD format, dated Febeuary 19, can be accessed here: http://www.toshiba.co.jp/about/press/2008_02/pr1903.htm

(Funny, the header on Toshiba's English-language Website still reads: Laptops, HDTVs, HD DVD Players, Medical Imaging & More - Toshiba America Inc. Then again, I guess it'll still be true... until they run out of inventory.)

And that about wraps things up here.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

My Studios

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