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I'm gonna have to disagree Frisky.
How to lose a Guy in ten days was not a bad movie. I'm not a chick flick lover but McConaughey knows how to bring the guys to the Chick Flicks.
So far as I've seen in my theater the preview has been getting a lot of good buzz. It's funny. Decently original. And when these two get together they mean business. How well it will do. It'll probably do pretty good. Better than Jumper. Maybe. Possibly. It could happen. Anything Could Happen. Let's face it. Sh&* happens.

Anyways. I have no idea why you all think Spiderwick is gonna fail. There has been some pretty decent marketing for this movie. We've had the preview on just about every movie(besides R) for the past four months. And yes. It's getting very annoying. Like many other trailers I unfortunately have to see over and over again.
Alot of theaters have been doing some pretty decent advertising for it. I know my chain has been anyways and we make up a nice percentage of market share in the biz. I've also noticed competitors who have plenty of spiderwick ads up in their theats to.
No. You might not have seen much Spiderwick on TV. But do you really think they progam those TV spots to reach out to our crowd. Of course not. If I learned anything in marketing its that you market to the target of your market. Kids movie. Your Target Market is Kids. Therefore your going to market to kids and their respective parents who unfortunately usually have to watch the same lame crap they do in the mornings and other times during the day. So no. Your probably not gonna see a whole lot of Spiderwick previews.

I think the main reason this movie will most likely dominate this weekend is simple. There hasn't been a kids/family movie released in awhile. And as we all (should) know the Kids/Family group make up the majority of movie goers and ticket buyers. And just like the Game Plan. This group is going to be hungry for a movie the whole family can go enjoy. And while Fools Gold is probably safe enough for the little ones. I don't see parents getting their kids excited for a Romantic Comedy. Soooo. If you aks me. Spiderwick is the safe bet for the weekend. Cause the other two are widely iffy. Kind of like Cloverfield. And we all know what happened to that. Just to bad some people couldn't predict it.

p.s. Sorry frisky but I'm gonna have to disagree again before I can leave. McConaughey is not a bad actor. He performs his roles perfectly. And let's not forget how BA he was in Reign of Fire.
I think someone mentioned above how many girls thought Hayden was hot. I could be wrong but every girl I know from 17 to 40 goes nuts over Matthew. So I definately think Fools gold will dominate Valentines Day and possible take second during the weekend.

I'll take Wooderson over Anakin any day.

This weekend reminds me of the December Holiday Movies

Fool's Gold = National Treasure 2

Definitely, Maybe = P.S. I Love You

Jumper = Sweeney Todd or AVP/R for low expectations and I Am Legend for high expectations

Spiderwick = Compass for high expectations or Water Horse for low expectations

Step Up 2 = Walk Hard

Roscoe Jenkins = Great Debaters except more BO

And The Eye might still be hanging around barely playing the role of Spoiler.

Who will be left out?

Step up 2 does not come close to comparing to Walk Hard. Completely different Genres. I wouldn't say completely different but pretty dam different Target Crowd.

And I wouldn't say Roscoe has the same crowd as debaters either. Being a "Black movie" sure. But Debaters is a Denzel drama. Where as Roscoe is a Lawrence comedy. So I see a pretty significant difference.

Jumper would appeal more toward the I am legend market than the emo/burtonfans that went to go see sweeney.

Other than that it looks pretty close.

And the eye could possibly be compared to AVP:R. I'm still not sure about the release date and marketing on this one though. They think a bunch of lonely chicks are gonna go watch a Japanese Remake on SuperBowl Sunday BY THEMSELVES. I don't see that happening. Last I recall Chicks go with dudes to see horror movies, no matter how lame, so they can have something to grab on to when they get scared. Besides a select few I still believe this to be true. And just because it stars a Girl in the lead role isn't going to change the Target Market. Even if she is really really hot.

Well, I don't think the Eye is going to be playing spoiler now that I've seen it. It might spoil your mood if you have to buy a ticket for it though. It looks more like One Missed Call. And my reasons for pairing Step Up 2 and Walk Hard wasn't quite for the audience, but more for the speculation around it. Walk Hard was expected to do well but didn't. Step Up 2 is not expected to do anything, but it could. I guess what I mena is that they have some pedigree but are very questionable. Roscoe was kinda hard to compare, my first instinct was to use that that Christmas movie with Chris Brown but that would ruin my whole December movie theme.

Dearest Crazy,

I see your love for Mr. McConaughey runs deep, runs true. But, I must confess, I didn't mean anything personal. Just professional. You are right, Matty isn't a "bad actor" per se. Like Keanu Reeves, he chooses roles that a surfer could play. Some moments of blank expression look positively enigmatic, other times, you're wondering why "Sweet November" reminds you so much of "Rain Man". McConaughey chooses similar roles that aren't a stretch dramatically and allow him to be the overbearing or fast-talking loudmouth associated with his Texas mentality. Personally, it's hard for me to take him in any film, but that's me.
As for what the ladies 17-40 like, I'm not really sure. I'm not a lady, but my lady doesn't want to see "Fool's Gold" (that's my girl) and would rather some farm boy Hartnett over Hayden or McConaughey any day.
With news that "Hannah Montana" is thinking about extending its 3D run into Valentine's Day weekend, that could very well baffle your "Spiderwick" plans.
And no, there's no possible way that "Fool's Gold" will be doing better than "Jumper". Yes, "Fool's Gold" has the ladies (and their men), but "Jumper" has the pedigree director (Doug Liman - "Bourne 1", "Mr.&Mrs.Smith"), decent stars (Hayden, Samuel L.), fanboy hottie (Rachel Bilsson from "The O.C."), and enough action to see twice and a family-friendly PG-13 rating. Not only that, its marketing machine has been running almost full speed ahead since 3rd quarter 2007.
I would agree that "How to Lose a Guy..." wasn't that bad for a date movie, but it's not the same director (trade Andy Tennant for Donald Petrie, Jr.) and it's not like we're talking about Meg Ryan/Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts/Richard Gere, Spencer Tracy/Katharine Hepburn, or Humphrey Bogart/Lauren Bacall. We're talking about McConaughey and Hudson. C'mon man. If they had a love child it'd be Paris Hilton. You'd might think that was awesome, but it'd make for a boring movie and another reason adoption sounds enticing.

Frisky, spot-on, I gotta pretty much agree with everything you said, especially on "Jumper". Samuel L can play a pretty bad-ass villain, and Fox has been marketing the bejesus out of this one all throughout the NFL playoffs and doing some HP promos as well. I do worry a bit about "Step Up 2" though. Disney has really stepped up promos in the past week.

la_resistance:

Thanks.

You should be worried about Step Up 2, only if you don't have it. With that paltry price tag, it's almost a must-have - even more so than "Hannah Montana". I again don't agree with Steve Mason's analysis of the film - what else is new? The film doesn't have a notable director, but he is noted among studio execs (Jon M. Chu). He is a prized film student from USC that Touchstone essentially is giving him this project to test the Chu waters. If he makes good on this, he'll more than likely get a high-profile project. I wouldn't be surprised if he's directing an Oscar-worthy musical before too long. Ads are throwing in what seems to be Channing Tatum's cameo, but is that a bad thing? This is the type of film that unless the stars can dance, you really don't need a Richard Gere (and "Shall We Dance?" proved...he can't).
My concern with Step Up 2 lies in the segregation of the audience. Talks of "Hannah Montana 3D" extending through that weekend have progressed, with "U23D" debuting that weekend, on top of the other films coming out. "Step Up 2" needs to have a huge marketing campaign if they want to compete with these other projects. I'm starting to think it'll make more than "Definitely, Maybe", with a possible 3-4 spot in top 5 for that weekend.

becs wrote:

except Banks

Hey! Definitely Maybe looks like an alright movie.

*kicks cat on the way out*

Spiderwick Chronicles
Jumper
Definately Maybe
Fool's Gold
Step Up 2

That's how i think it's going to go Box Office wise but Definately Maybe will Definately have the highest imdb score.

I almost forgot about Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins' 2nd week. It could potentially keep a Top 5 spot in its 2nd week if the OW is good enough...

annyongbob you are crazy if you think roscoe jenkins will be in top 5. you fool.

Well first off I am not that big of a McCaunhiggle fan.
I've been looking forward to Jumper for a very long time. Especially being a Huge fan of Christensen and Jackson. yes Bilson is tremendously hott. Just to clear the air so there is no confusion on my prefrences. Although I would like to see Fools gold it is not on my list of looking forward to movies.

As for your comparison of Date movies. I would say you are right.
Fools gold is a money making, entertaining while somewhat not intelligent in point or humor.
While most of the pairs and movies you named are smart, intelligently thought out while somewhat slow and boring that tend to have great performances but fail to entertain the majority of people especially males. When it comes to chick flicks I would much rather go see a "date movie" that could entertain me and make me laugh than one that is well scripted and acted but a little bit on the boring side. And considering I'm from Texas, most of the people I know would agree. But thats just me. And them.
So don't take it as That I'm arguing with you. Let's just say I have my preferences just like anybody else.
One more thing. No, Fools gold doens't have the same director as How to lose a guy. But then general public, especially the audience for these genres, don't really pay that close attention. When they see the trailer they see the actors and a handful sometimes happen to catch the two seconds of cast/crew at the previews end. Theres not a lot of people I know who go out of their way to go online and look up a director. They leave that to their movie loving/nerdy friends.(for my friends it's me). To add to this point. When people come to my theater and question on an upcoming movie. They usually always describe it using actors. When asking about a movie thats currently playing they ask saying whats that movie you got with (insert actor name) in it.
So that is were I get my assumption that the general public tends not to care about who directed a movie unless the preview(ex. Jumper) goes out of the way at the beginning to say "From the guys who brought you such and such"

p.s. Roscoe could definately make the top five. It has a much better chance than Step up two. If you have your doubts just think back to Wild Hogs. How much of a surprise that was here. And wait. Didn't that have Lawrence in it to. Point. Don't doubt the Lawrence. He may not be the biggest money makin Black dude in Hollywood. But he does have a crowd.

Roscoe is a perfect date movie so I can see some Valentine's BO as well. I think it looks funny as hell...

If the Eye doesn't tank into oblivion, I'll eat my hat...

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