My Studios

I'm in as well, I just don't know how we're gonna make this official, if you know what I mean. Here it is for me then, with a tentative order as well...

1. Indiana Jones And The Kingdom Of The Crystal Skull
2. The Dark Knight
3. Harry Potter And The Half-Blood Prince
4. Iron Man
5. The Chronicles Of Narnia: Prince Caspian
6. Wall-E
7. The Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor
8. Madagscar 2: The Crate Escape
9. Hancock
10. Tropic Thunder

[Pursing lips] Very, very interesting... See, my first reaction was to feel a little like Banks, that "everyone's lists...will be...[the] same." But, you know, there could be as many as fifty films in '08 that have an outside shot at becoming blockbusters, and probably fifteen $200M titles in the mix. Once I realized that, I became very, very excited for this novel, if a little unruly, concept.

So, with 13 entries (excepting rob's original slate -- He was distracted by news that there'll be a going-away party held for him in some Lower East Side loft the third Friday in January), here's how it's all breaking down at this point:

It's pretty much a three-way tie, right now, for which film FM Forum contributors think will be the top title of 2008:

[1] Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 12 votes (7 first-place) [UPDATED]
[2-tie] The Dark Knight - 13 votes (2 first-place)
[2-tie] Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - 13 votes (2 first-place)

So. Over half of contest participants (54%) believe that the fourth Indiana Jones feature will be 2008's top earner, but The Dark Knight and the next-to-last Harry Potter title are the only two movies to occur on every single contestant's list.

Three additional films are on most folks' Top 10 lists:

[4] WALL-E - 12 votes (1 first-place)
[5-tie] The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian - 11 votes [UPDATED]
[5-tie] Iron Man - 11 votes [UPDATED]

Personally, I find this really interesting. Iron Man isn't a top-of-the-shelf comics title; no one would call it as well-known as, say, Batman, or Superman, or The Amazing Spider-Man, or The Uncanny X-Men, or, even, The Incredible Hulk. The film featured the all-time unlikeliest of action-film stars (Robert Downey, Jr.) in what must be considered a comeback role, and a relatively untried, unknown director. Plus, other than Disney/Pixar's WALL-E, this is the only title in our top six that isn't a sequel. Could Iron Man be 2008's breakout original smash? Or will it be, you know, Daredevil? And then there's Prince Caspian, which, if you believe our little poll here, must be considered the successor to legendary film franchises Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. Will this really be the case, though?

On to the third tier:

[7] James Bond 22 - 8 votes (1 first-place)
[8] Hancock - 8 votes
[9] Horton Hears a Who! - 7 votes
[10-tie] Kung Fu Panda - 6 votes
[10-tie] Madagascar 2: The Crate Escape - 6 votes

Here, in my opinion, are the REAL surprises. No one should be amazed, of course, that the revitalized James Bond appears in our Top 10 list; it's very nearly a lock to finish high, in fact. But Hancock? The anti-(super)hero thing has been done before, and never successfully; then again, it's never had someone of Will Smith's caliber in the role, and if anyone can pull it off and remain likeable, he can. But I worry about this one. Too much, I think, is being made of I Am Legend's success, and I don't see how this film packs 'em into theaters when, frankly, all the best material will undoubtedly be in the trailer. Also, Hancock won't have any level of rewatchability, which is frankly essential to appearing in the year-end Top 10. Now, Horton Hears a Who! is an interesting choice, some would say, a slam dunk. But I wonder if we're beginning to see some wear on the Jim Carrey - Dr. Seuss brand, and I don't think the repairing of Carrey and Carell will pack quite the punch some folks do. Kung Fu Panda could be this year's Madagascar -- which doesn't bode especially well for that film's sequel. Still, I think there's at least one too many animated films in our current Top 10 list -- four's a crowd with Horton, Panda, Madagascar 2 and, of course, WALL-E, and one or more of these films will be a big, big disappointment. Given that the year-end Top 10 tends to be dominated by sequels, my money's (not) on Kung Fu Panda here.

Next, the also-rans:

[12] The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor - 5 votes
[13] Sex and The City: The Movie - 4 votes
[14] Star Trek - 3 votes
[15-tie] Cloverfield - 2 votes
[15-tie] Speed Racer - 2 votes

I still say both The Mummy sequel and Sex and the City are being incredibly overestimated; the time to make either of these films was several years ago, and modern audiences will frankly even rather see Journey 3D (another bomb) than another Mummy. Expect Mummy to post Resident Evil: Extinction-type numbers (at best), and for Sex and the City to be the biggest disaster to hit New York since, well, Madonna on Broadway. It continues to astonish me, how very little the general public cares about Star Trek, and I think it's possible we'll see a franchise-ending implosion come December. I doubt Cloverfield can monster mash its way into the Top 10; it'll have a HUGE opening weekend, sure, but it'll be gone from the Top 10 in three or four weeks and will finish well short of $180 million. Speed Racer is the one to watch. It could be The Matrix or, then again, it could be Thunderbirds. However, Speed Racer is my dark horse pick of all these films.

...And, finally, the fliers (1 vote each):

[unrank] The Day the Earth Stood Still
[unrank] Get Smart!
[unrank] The Incredible Hulk
[unrank] Mamma Mia!
[unrank] Rambo
[unrank] Tropic Thunder
[unrank] Yes Man

Okay. I love Spielberg, and I love science fiction, but unless he really manages to pull The Rabbit's Foot out of his hat, I think The Day the Earth Stood Still will be a classic miscalculation. Too preachy, too depressing; too Twentieth Century. I don't think Hulk will have many takers, either; I love Ed Norton, too, but they really needed to let a few more years go by before attempting yet another franchise reboot. Audiences haven't forgotten their disappointment in Ang Lee's Hulk, and the biggest reaction this film will provoke is a whole lot of eye-rolling. Mamma Mia! is also going to bomb, and bomb hugely; it has NO audience, folks. This isn't Chicago, Dreamgirls or Hairspray, it's The Producers. Rambo is... overrated. $100M is probably out of reach. That leaves Yes Man, Tropic Thunder and Get Smart! All of 'em could surprise, and I have to say, I love Tropic Thunder's concept, sort of a cross between Galaxy Quest and Apocalypse Now. But the relative failure of the winning Charlie Wilson's War leads me to believe that, unless there's a radical shift in national temperature over the next several months, this film will, like Charlie, die fast and quiet. Yes Man returns Carrey to his Liar Liar / Man on the Moon roots, which could be a good thing, but I frankly doubt it. The man's taken some chances, recently, but none of them were the right role. He needs to get himself out of the headlines for a couple years and figure out what sort of actor he wants to be as he approaches middle-age. Get Smart! is the wild card. I think it'll be a contender for one of the year's Top 10 films; but, then again, I thought Evan Almighty would be one of the biggest films of '07. Thus endeth my unsolicited analysis and sermonizing. For now.

[UPDATED] (For the record, I initially listed my films in alphabetical, not revenue, order. I'll add my rankings shortly, in red. Also for the record, my own #1 pick is WALL-E.)

P.S. Marius (thanks for the heads-up on the typo, btw): I concur with Six's idea. [Laughing] Damn, but we're competitive 'round these parts!

P.P.S. ann, we CAN make this "official," if someone can figure out or ask the FM administrators, how we can get the thread LOCKED before, say, January 18, preventing additional posts or any alterations to prior ones.

P.P.P.S. Everything in this post has now been UPDATED. Thanks, geez.

Nico, you have a little editing to do. My bad, I listed my movies in no particular order. They are now in my order, so you can adjust your critique accordingly.
And we don't need to get it "locked." we can just have the original poster who came up with it, set up a seperate spreadsheet, like Shryke is doing for the super leagues, and take down everyone's selections as of January 18th. Then that is the final list. Anything else that is changed or posted will not matter after that date.

1) Dark Knight
2) Indiana Jones
3) Wall E
4) Harry Pottah
5) Cloverfield
6) Narnia
7) Horton Hears a Who

Iron Man
9) Bond 22
10) Kung Foo Pandoo

before i go to the trouble of making a list.

is anyone actually gonna remember this thread at the end of the year?

it would work much better if there was an actual league for this

1. Indiana Jones
2. The Dark Knight
3. Harry Potter
4. Wall-E
5. Hancock
6. Bond 22
7. The Chronicles Of Narnia
8. Iron Man
9. Star Trek
10. Sex and the City

@BanksIsDaFuture and cRAzY: you got a good point with the redundant lists... and also with the people not being around in March 2009... this contest is open also for the entrants of Super Box Office Leagues

who'll wait 1 year to see who's the best mogul around

@numbersix_99: your idea (top 10 order) is very good for picking the winner in case of a tie...@everybody: what do you thing? any other props? Nico?
@Nicodemus: very good statistics... I was savin' em for 1/18/08 especially not to influence the future subscribers

a very very pertinent post from you like always... BUT not underestimate some movies and also appearance of surprise-hits (in no particular order) like:

Wanted
You Don't Mess With the Zohan
Step Brothers
The Love Guru
Where the Wild Things Are
The Happening
HB II (formerly Hellboy 2: The Golden Army)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Bolt
Dragonball and...
Body of Lies (Leo DiCaprio, Russell Crowe, Carice van Houten, directed by: Ridley Scott)

...movies still not selected by anyone which can do better than USD 100 MM

still waitin' 4 Shryke and others...

delfinasu:

Yeah, I thought Six's idea was a good one, that's why I went back and "ranked" my selections. Props, seconded, moral support, whatever.

[V]ery good statistics... I was savin' em for 1/18/08 especially not to influence the future subscribers...

Whups. My bad.

...[A] very very pertinent post from you like always...

Is there such a disease as Digital Tourette's Syndrome? If not, I'm proof positive that there oughta be... Someone give me a grant...

...[M]ovies still not selected by anyone which can do better than USD 100 M...

[Nodding] There's a few of 'em. I see your point, Marius (your Nico-name, btw, and a damned fine one if I do say so myself, friend), but, personally, I suspect that posting comprehensive lists of the "taken" films, is MORE likely to encourage Fantaversians to be creative and to select other titles. This game, this place, ain't for professional sheep, for bipedal lemmings who follow the crowd right off the cliff and are totaly risk-averse. Pointing out that just about every single participant has the same six titles on their lists is a good way to mix things up; everyone here wants to be the one who comes out of nowhere and selects 2008's surprise smash. And no one wants to "win" by playing it safe.

But, hey, I could be wrong.

I never want to meet any of you in Vegas, btw.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

@Nico: maybe I was missunderstood... I agree with you... and I always appreciate your constructive posts. I never want to meet any of you in Vegas, too

but, at a coffee after a good movie to comment it, there's no other better idea... maybe just at the beach - Palma de Mallorca, Seychelles, Hawaii

Have you wonder what have you choosen in 2006 for 2007? I think that everyone was bettin' on threequels: Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3, Bourne 3 and maybe Rush Hour 3 and of course on: Transformers, Harry Porker 5, Ratatouille and The Simpsons Movie... at least 5 or 6 of these movies on everyone's selected top 10 for 2007...
But how many of you have actually dreamed of more than 200 MM for 300?
National Treasure 2 can surpass the 200 MM mark too and I think that the surprise of this year will be Alvin which can be over The Simpsons Movie...
Wild Hogs and Ghost Rider made more than 100 MM, a mark that was a little surpassed by Evan Almighty and not achieved by Meet the Robinsons (deserved more), Beowulf, Golden Compass, The Heartbreak Kid and Lions for Lambs.

Have you thought of more than 30 movies for the last year' blockbuster? So 23 movies selected so far and maybe other no more than 11 NEW movies to be selected until the end of subscription...

Che sera, sera...

Nico, I think YOU are understimating Sex and the City. Last year failed to deliver a Devil Wears Prada, and now that target audience are desperate for something else. Sex and the City, mark my words, will be a hit. how much of a hit? That's hard to say, but I can see it surpassing Prada's 124 million.

I think I may be underestimating Wanted, with Jolie for the lads and McEvoy (seriously, am I the only one who thinks he doesn't have the presence to be a lead actor?) for the ladies. I didn't like the trailer, but most guys I spoke to did (seriously, bending bullets???). It is, however, opening against Wall-E, which I see whooping its ass.

Speaking of that, does anyone have any reasoning as to why they think Wall E will do so well and Ratatouille disappointed so much? My thinking is that the robot of Wall E is mroe marketable than a rat, and Wall E is more of a visual (hence accessible) story than Ratatouille.

I thought about Star Trek for a while (and noticed the ladies were all running away), but none of the movies were ever that huge, and even though the franchise is being rejuvinated, no amount of Sylars will make it a huge hit.

I'm taking a wild stab in picking Day the Earth Stood Still. I just thought, sci-fi, heavy on SFX/CGI, with Neo. It should be popular enough. Interestingly, the director Scott Derrickson will also be making Paradise Lost (excuse me while I put my eyes back into my sockets), so it'll be interesting to see how he fares.

I think Iron Man will be a hit, mostly because it's the opening film of the summer. And the trailer had the Sabbath song. Which made me want to see it. I can only pray it's the only song used in the soundtrack. All together now: I AM IRON MANNNNN

Wow, Nico great analysis. Hope you're getting paid well for all of these well-detailed analyses. (Analyses is a word, isn't it?)

I'm gonna stick with my list, but I personally can't believe I missed Bond 22. Heaps of others had it, but I decided to bypass it. It should be huge, but coming out the same day as Madagscar 2, basically one or the other will do very big business while the other will do only regular big business. For some reason I'm thinking it'll be Madagscar going very big. Don't ask me why though... Bond 22 would be my #11 though. As a side note, if Angels & Demons hadn't been moved to 2009, it'd be a serious contender as well for a #6-#10 spot. Trust me guys, anyone who's read the books can tell you A&D will translate into a film at least 10 times better than the turd that was The Da Vinci Code's movie.

I'm pretty happy that I'm the only one who rates Tropic Thunder as a possible Top 10 flick. In all likelihood it won't make it, but it's my real wildcard. My list would be pretty standard without it, with Bond 22 at #10 instead. Ignoring The Heartbreak Kid, Ben Stiller is still one of the biggest draws in the world, and with a decent film behind him, this should make serious dough. Also, look at the serious star power accompanying him, I'd argue (including cameos) probably the STRONGEST CAST LIST OF ANY FILM IN 2008. Yes, you heard me right. Just try and name one with more starpower.

I'm also not considering the 'war' aspect to it, they're taking the mickey out of it, so people won't think twice about seeing a 'war flick' with Tropic Thunder. An enjoyable popcorn flick is all it's trying to be, and I believe will be how the public will view it.

As for wildcards it's easy to go with comedies like Tropic Thunder, which are a little unquantifiable. Nico was right to point out Yes Men and Get Smart. I'd like to present two more that should also be given consideration (sorry if someone's already mentioned them)...

PINEAPPLE EXPRESS
BEDTIME STORIES

Mainly Pineapple Express though. Oh, and btw Dragonball (Z?) will flop. They should've made a live-action Pokemon movie instead. Yes, that's right, A LIVE-ACTION POKEMON MOVIE!!! It'd be pretty lousy, but a live-action Dragonball (Z?) is an even more ridiculously preposterous idea.

That is all...

Just wanted to pick on one more thing. Namely one small nitpick from Nico's piece.

Expect Mummy to post Resident Evil: Extinction-type numbers (at best)

So you seriously think The Mummy will only gross $50 million. That's, um... odd. Never underestimate big-budget franchises. The Mummy is a much huger franchise than Resident Evil could ever hope to be. $120 million at the ABSOLUTE WORST IMO.

Not to mention this years mummy has the one and only Jet effing Li as the Chinese undead Emperor.

And the mummy has action and humor.

Something Resident evil didn't pick up until 2 and 3 when they cast ole whats his face(whose name escapes me at the moment).

Although Resident Evil and The Mummy are not really in the same category of movies. I would think the two have a mostly different target audience.

first, i agree with 6, that sex and the city is being grossly underestimated....i want it to flop - believe me, i do - but i think it'll be the (albeit hated) simpsons movie of 2008....

next, wall-e IS more marketable and i think it should post 'Incredibly Nemoid' numbers....

lastly, the bond franchise was rejuvenated by craig's first outing, IMO, and bond 22 should pocket about 1.2-1.5 times the BO that casino did....

finally, the pineapple express has to be the dark horse of the summer - last year knocked up killed at the BO without apatow's name to drive it....this year, same time, same place - only apatow's already well-known....so this movie could be the wildcard entry for the top 10....

1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
3. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
4. Wall-E
5. The Dark Knight
6. Iron Man
7. Bedtime Stories
8. Madagascar 2
9. Star Trek
10. Hancock

That was harder than I thought!

My Studios

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