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So the theater counts for December 7 have come out. Of note:

The Golden Compass 3000+
Atonement 26
Juno 7

Also of note:
Grace Is Gone 4
The Amateurs 3
Dirty Laundry 2

With this, I think Juno's chances have increased a little bit, although Atonement could (and probably will) pull off a No Country For Old Men type PTA with similar theaters to No Country's OW. Question is, can Juno better that...

Also is anyone else surprised TGC is only out in 3000+ and not 3500+

Yup, New York and LA. That's where Juno is opening. The PTA is wide open for the taking. Especially with the Compass not opening at 3500+.

hmmm....in that case, maybe Juno could come up with something special....only time will tell....i'd still leave both of them off my slate....of course, either one could turn into a PTA juggernaut and embarrass me, but in a situation like this, i'm never comfortable spending so much on a single movie....esp. a PTA expecter....but if i had to choose, i'd still go with atonement....barely....

Don't count Juno out. I am putting my bet on it. I mean, it's being advertised as the next thing from the Jason Reitman, director of Thank You For Smoking; it has rising star Michael Cera in it who just pulled of a huge indie hit with Superbad; and it has the same charmy quirky feel as Little Miss Sunshine. I think this is going to be big. And everyone keeps saying it isn't getting as good of reviews as Atonement. Well check out rottentomatoes.com. Atonement has an average of 93% of reviewers who like it, while Juno has a 96%. And honestly, I have seen a number of previews for Juno, while I have yet to see one thing for Atonement, other than reading about the buzz it is getting. Maybe that is just the area that I live, because everyone else seems to be seeing this movie getting a lot of exposure. From what I have seen, Juno is getting the same amount if not more.

I wouldn't exactly call Superbad an indie hit...

Taking a look at the week before (aka this weekend), The Savages got $3,800 PTA on Wednesday in 4 theaters, about 6 times more than the next closest film. Looks like it's on its way to some big points, it just depends on how Diving Bell and the Butterfly does in 3 theaters.

I could be wrong, but I just have a good feeling about Juno. It has sleeper hit written all over it.

Atonement on the other hand really doesn't do it for me--especially since I have seen how mediocre it has done in the UK and it was made here and is filled with brit stars. Also, every fricking Brit film I have had on my slates have ruined my slates...seriously. **cough STARDUST cough***

But both of these predictions are based on gut reactions...I most definitely could be wrong on this..keeping the fingers crossed.

well, there's something i haven't heard yet....juno's getting exposure you say?? well, if she gets enough exposure within a short enough time, she could well steal next weekend from atonement....and that'll really push down atonement's chances at the oscars....

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I wouln't say Atonement was "mediocre" in the UK, not at all. Sure, it was beaten by Run Fat boy Run (which ended up with a similar BO result), but it was No.2 for 4 weeks in a row. It made 22million which is mighty fine for a non-blockbuster.

Looking at the theatre counts I think it's going to be a close battle between Juno and Atonment, followed by Golden compass.

yeah, i heard that atonement's UK performance was 'wayyy tight' too....

excuse me, i've been watching too much Ali G....

For the record, I'm gonna back Juno to win the PTA race here. A bit out on a limb, as they say, but it's just on a gut feeling, I guess. So, this is what I'm predicting:

5 PTA: Juno
4 PTA: Atonement
3 PTA: The Savages (holding over very well)
2 PTA: The Golden Compass
1 PTA: Grace Is Gone

glebe wrote:

Taking a look at the week before (aka this weekend), The Savages got $3,800 PTA on Wednesday in 4 theaters, about 6 times more than the next closest film. Looks like it's on its way to some big points, it just depends on how Diving Bell and the Butterfly does in 3 theaters.

Best news I heard all week glebe! Thanks. Slowly and surely my big deal Nov. slate is rounding out. I just need to know some tracking for next week . . . .

Also Mooreland you might be hearing more about Juno since Fox Searchlight is having free screenings around the country. Word of mouth . . .I got my tickets for December 11th.

dranscht wrote:

I wouldn't exactly call Superbad an indie hit...

Well, it was considered to be this small movie that wasn't going to do very well and then ended up being one of the big hits of the summer, but indie may be a bad choice of words.

annyonggob888 wrote:

For the record, I'm gonna back Juno to win the PTA race here. A bit out on a limb, as they say, but it's just on a gut feeling, I guess. So, this is what I'm predicting:

5 PTA: Juno
4 PTA: Atonement
3 PTA: The Savages (holding over very well)
2 PTA: The Golden Compass
1 PTA: Grace Is Gone

No no, Golden Compass will beat the Savages. I would bet money on it. Compass is going to have a huge opening day and it will be third.

Hey JackO, where did you get these tickets for the free screening? I want one. Badly.

betting with a wide release against a limited release takes some cahones mooreland!!!! even if it is Compass, it's BO has to be MASSIVE to beat the Savages....it's in 3000 theatres dude!!!! say the Savages picks up 18,000 PTA, the whole weekend....Compass needs 54 mil just to match it....and 18,000 isn't even that strong a PTA for the PTA topping film on a weekend....

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