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Hmm, I don't think Tyler Perry is going to tank- his films have a fan base, regardless of reviews. I say the Top 5 next week will be:

1: Michael Clayton (12-14 mil)
2: We Own the Night (10-11 mil)
3: The Game Plan (9-11 mil)
4: Tyler Perry (8-10 mil)
5: The Heartbreak Kid (8-9 mil)

I feel Elizabeth isn't getting the reviews it needs to be a sleeper hit- opening it on 1900 screens is a bad idea, as the film has no opportunity to generate word-of-mouth, like the original. And Michale Clayton is the kind of generic thrill with a big name that won't do well, but can't do bad either.

I Think The top 5 next weekend will finish like this
1.We Own The Night
2.The Game Plan
3. Micheal Clayton
4.Heartbreak Kid
5.The Kingdom
Tyler Perry will finish 6th next weekend and Elizabeth The Golden Age will tank.

I had 'Michael Clayton' in my initial September-November league but got scared off by the luke-warm reception at Venice. The reception at Toronto was much better but, psychologically, the damage was done for me. Its value to me was for solid iMDb, some guaranteed PTA (by cleverly releasing limited against 'The Heartbreak Kid' and then stealing 5 Top 5 the following weekend witha wide release) but box office always looked like the wild card. I figured that if the film could reach '3:10 to Yuma' numbers that was as much as anyone could ask of it.

Tyler Perry will take the weekend. His first two films opend to 25 and 30 million. Dadd'y little girls would have made 19 million if it opend on Friday not wensday. WDIGM is based on one of best selling play and tracking showes that is is getting to the people it is targeted two. Tyler fanbase is big and Why did i get married will be another success for him.

Here is my uneducated prediction

1. Gameplan
2. Michael Clayton
3. Why Did I Watch This Movie?®
4. HBK
5. We Own
6. Lizardbreath&trade
7. Good Luck
8. Resident Evil
9. Kingdom
10. Brave One

Nico,
I think those were some pretty good predictions. I am very confident that We Own the Night will open at #1...probably not very high of an opening (less than $20m.) but #1 nonetheless. The Game Plan will definitely stay in the top 5 this week, and probably next week. I think you're right about The Kingdom. Everyone who wanted to see it has probably already done so. I agree with pretty much everyone who I know who has heard of Michael Clayton, and think that it will be one of the best films of the season. However, I don't think John and Jane Average Moviegoer have the same urgency and fire to see this kind of movie. For most americans (myself excluded of course) going to the movies is an event. An occasion if you will. People go to the movies to get out of the house and have some fun. Michael Clayton, to me anyway, doesn't look like it's gonna be that uplifting of a movie. At least not by the intense previews that I think will scare some people into waiting to rent it. I don't like Tyler Perry. There's just something about him. But, I don't think Why Did I Get Married will do all that badly at the box office. I think he's got the kind of fan base that will stick by him, (I mean those crappy Madea DVDs are selling pretty well)and I think the trailers appeal the movie to a slightly larger crowd than just Madea fans. I expect him to take the #5 spot this weekend over George. And, lastly. Nico, don't give up hope on Across the Universe. This kind of movie is exactly why they do limited release in the first place. A few people knew about it when it was first released then it started trickling into local theatres here and there, and pretty soon I think the word of mouth will generate enough momentum to keep it in theatres for a while. I'm not saying it's gonna reach blockbuster status, but I am saying around 35-50m. I know I'm gonna see it at least twice more with all of my friends. And that's probably the least amount of times I'll see it again.

filmboy:

Tyler Perry will take the weekend. His first two films opend to 25 and 30 million. Dadd'y little girls would have made 19 million if it opend on Friday not wensday. WDIGM is based on one of best selling play and tracking showes that is is getting to the people it is targeted two. Tyler fanbase is big and Why did i get married will be another success for him.

Hey, how 'bout that... someone else who appreciates Tyler Perry! (Or, at least, understands him and his work, somewhat.) I hope you're right... Certainly that was what I was thinking when I chose Why Did I Get Married? for several of my slates.

While Perry may not exactly be August Wilson, or Langston Hughes, I have repeatedly characterized him as the modern African-American Neil Simon, and I think that analogy works, actually. I can only hope that his work begins to gain a wider audience and appreciation in the coming years.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Nicodemus wrote:

filmboy:

Tyler Perry will take the weekend. His first two films opend to 25 and 30 million. Dadd'y little girls would have made 19 million if it opend on Friday not wensday. WDIGM is based on one of best selling play and tracking showes that is is getting to the people it is targeted two. Tyler fanbase is big and Why did i get married will be another success for him.

Hey, how 'bout that... someone else who appreciates Tyler Perry! (Or, at least, understands him and his work, somewhat.) I hope you're right... Certainly that was what I was thinking when I chose Why Did I Get Married? for several of my slates.

While Perry may not exactly be August Wilson, or Langston Hughes, I have repeatedly characterized him as the modern African-American Neil Simon, and I think that analogy works, actually. I can only hope that his work begins to gain a wider audience and appreciation in the coming years.

I remain, as always...

Thanks for the support. I hope We Own the night deos well but as of right now, i can not see it out doing Perry's new film. I do not want to sound racist and if i do i am sorry, but it seems that alot of African Americans do not go to theaters unless they are teens. Example, look at Stomp the yard and Norbit. Both did very well in theaters because of teens. Then look at Black Snake moan, Pride, I Think i love My wife. All of those floped but diid good on DVD. Then look at tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls. It made 12 million on opening weekend but now that i think about it, it opend on a wensday. If the film would have opend on friday it would have made close to 20 million. That would have been the highest opening for any urban film this year. I just seems that when a tyler perry film comes out, there is a good turn out.

But the main fact is there has not been an Film for or staring African Americans in a while. the last film that came out wide was Pride back in march and the latest film was Talk to me but that film did not come out wide. I just think they are ready to see there own on the big screen and tyler perry is the right one for it.

I hope this post did not sound racist. If it did then i am sorry.

Some responses:

StnMan5: (Sorry I didn't get to this earlier, I think you and I were composing our posts at about the same time, and then I was totally into the Cowboys-Bills thriller on MNF...) I'm with you, I don't think the #1 film will do better than $18 million or thereabouts. Game Plan still has two weeks left as a solid earner...

I agree with pretty much everyone who I know who has heard of Michael Clayton, and think that it will be one of the best films of the season. However, I don't think John and Jane Average Moviegoer have the same urgency and fire to see this kind of movie. For most americans (myself excluded of course) going to the movies is an event. An occasion if you will. People go to the movies to get out of the house and have some fun. Michael Clayton, to me anyway, doesn't look like it's gonna be that uplifting of a movie. At least not by the intense previews that I think will scare some people into waiting to rent it.

[Nodding] Although I've compared Michael Clayton to Erin Brokovich-by-way-of-Syriana, perhaps the BEST analogy is to one of my favorite films, Michael Mann's The Insider. Here's another film that opened in the Fall (November 5, 1999), to sterling reviews and quite a bit of awards-season buzz. But, it failed to connect with, as you put it, "John and Jane...Moviegoer," and ended up earning its reputation in Middle America mainly by way of VCR rentals and appearances on Starz!. Using that yardstick, I won't be surprised to see Michael Clayton, despite its strong limited opening in major film markets, to end up right around where I predicted it to fall last week in the "100 Million Dollar Question" thread: $32 million or so.

...[ I ] don't think Why Did I Get Married will do all that badly at the box office. I think he's got the kind of fan base that will stick by him, (I mean those crappy Madea DVDs are selling pretty well)and I think the trailers appeal the movie to a slightly larger crowd than just Madea fans. I expect him to take the #5 spot this weekend over George.

I'd love for you to prove me wrong. And if you don't "get" Tyler Perry, well, don't feel too badly... his films have definitely not been for "everybody." (Not that there's anything wrong with that. There's room enough at the box office counter, and in the multiplex, for all of us, I find.)

And, lastly. Nico, don't give up hope on Across the Universe. This kind of movie is exactly why they do limited release in the first place. A few people knew about it when it was first released then it started trickling into local theatres here and there, and pretty soon I think the word of mouth will generate enough momentum to keep it in theatres for a while. I'm not saying it's gonna reach blockbuster status, but I am saying around 35-50m. I know I'm gonna see it at least twice more with all of my friends. And that's probably the least amount of times I'll see it again.

StnMan5, you're playing music to my ears and giving me hope to face tomorrow. I'm about as far from Across the Universe's ideal market demographic as you could possibly imagine, yet the film seduced me on every sensory level. From your lips to God's ears. I would SO like to see this unusual, revelatory little picture do the $73 million I forecast. Thanks for your thoughts and your encouraging words!

filmboy:

...I hope We Own the night deos well but as of right now, i can not see it out doing Perry's new film... t seems that alot of African Americans do not go to theaters unless they are teens. Example, look at [i]Stomp the yard and Norbit. Both did very well in theaters because of teens. Then look at Black Snake moan, Pride, I Think i love My wife. All of those floped but diid good on DVD.

[Nodding] You make some good points. I think that marketing effectively to African-Americans may be a VERY different prospect from marketing to so-called "Middle America," or to the (mostly white and upscale) art-house crowd, or even to "average" teenagers -- though I think ANY marketing to teens, no matter their socioeconomic or racial makeup, is probably a pretty daunting challenge.

...[L]ook at tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls. It made 12 million on opening weekend but now that i think about it, it opend on a wensday. If the film would have opend on friday it would have made close to 20 million. That would have been the highest opening for any urban film this year. I just seems that when a tyler perry film comes out, there is a good turn out.

He does have his following. It sometimes seems to be invisible, at least as far as early studio tracking (which, it seems to me, is mainly designed and performed by suburban white men) goes, but it's there, and is probably one of the most underserved (and poorly-served) audiences in modern American film. I think the audience that turns out for Tyler Perry films is so desperate for relevant content that they fairly surge into theaters when one of his films is released, as if they were quenching a powerful and long-suffered thirst. I don't know about the Wednesday-versus-Friday appeal, though. It seems to me that Wednesday openings benefit smaller films and limited releases. But I'm no marketing genius.

...[T]he main fact is there has not been an Film for or staring African Americans in a while. the last film that came out wide was Pride back in march and the latest film was Talk to me but that film did not come out wide. I just think they are ready to see there own on the big screen and tyler perry is the right one for it.

I just wonder why we don't see more films like Waiting to Exhale, a fair-sized ($67 million) release back in 1995 that was marketed VERY broadly in spite of its almost uniformly African-American cast. This isn't merely a good "black" film, it's a darned good film, period. (And, btw, if you're looking for evidence of IMDb users' prejudice against films serving or reflecting the African-American community, look no further than Waiting to Exhale's mind-boggling 4.9 User Rating. A disgrace.)

I hope this post did not sound racist. If it did then i am sorry.

I'm not a person of color, so I don't think I'm qualified to judge, but insofar as I can tell, you're cool. Talking intelligently and openly about racial issues doesn't make anyone a "racist" in my book. I for one am glad for your contributions here. I look forward to more of your thoughts.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

Bless you Michael Bay. Armageddon is a masterpiece.

Tyler Perry has a 12-acre estate outside Atlanta.

...?...
It's like tuan's suddenly become the writer for FOX News Alerts.

I remain, as always...

Nico.

tuan69 wrote:

Tyler Perry has a 12-acre estate outside Atlanta.

Isn't there an E! forum where you could put this?

I think we own the night looks much better than the departed. Considering I didn't even really like the departed.

The 'Over/Under Game' has weighed in:

1. Tyler Perry 15.0
2. Michael Clayton 12.0
3. Elizabeth 2 10.9
4. The Game Plan 10.5
5. We Own the Night 8.0
6. HeartBreak Kid 7.3
7. The Kingdom 5.1
8. Across the U. 3.3
9. The Final Season 2.4
10. R.E.:Ex 2.2

I think the estimate for 'We Own the Night' is low considering that Sony has been pushing the hell out of it for three months. 8 million? I'll trust the marketing team at Sony but this looks like an anxiety filled weekend. I wonder how a non-'Madea' Tyler Perry will compare to the first two in the series -- or will it even matter?

You mentioned the juxtaposition of We Own The Night and American Gangster as a potential problem. Do you really believe that American Gangster will take a real hit? Denzel and Russel Crowe are much bigger stars and I have seen ads for this film for months now and ever since the first time I saw it I got goosebumps. I loved The Departed and I think American Gangster will be better. I do not get the same feeling about We Own the Night. So do you you really believe this film will be able to steal the thunder of Denzel and Russel?

P.S. What is your opinion on what will do better: We Own the Night or 30 Days of Night. is 30 Days worth the extra 2 bucks?

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