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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Nov 01, 2008 10:05 AM
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J.I.
Mogul
Joined: Jun 8, 2007 7:48 PM
Messages: 1041
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Still don't think HSM3 bombed? Personally, not budget-wise, I mean.
Dang, what happened to Saw V? Saw IV's second weekend was after Halloween and it still had a stronger hold.
Zack and Miri? What happened?
The top movie having $7.5 million????
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Nov 01, 2008 10:30 AM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1557
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J.I. wrote:
Still don't think HSM3 bombed? Personally, not budget-wise, I mean.
Yeah, if it doesn't win this weekend, um it is defintely not worth the money.
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Nov 01, 2008 10:33 AM
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Shryke42
Mogul
Joined: Mar 31, 2007 5:36 PM
Messages: 1178
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It was definitely worth it in the August Ultimates. $60+ million and 9-10 Top 5 points for only $19? That's worth it. Everything else, though....
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Nov 01, 2008 11:02 AM
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lainiediamond
Special Effects Foreman
Joined: Aug 15, 2007 9:15 PM
Messages: 102
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BOM Fri numbers 1. Saw V $3.1M, 2. Changling $2.3M, 3. Zack and Miri
$2.2M, 4. Haunting of MH $1.75M, 5. HSM3 $1.7M.
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Nov 01, 2008 3:20 PM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1557
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Early PTA from Variety for anyone who picked The Other End Of The Line
MGM’s “The Other End of the Line” was one of the few limited releases, collecting $15,000 from 91 locales.
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Nov 01, 2008 4:11 PM
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BanksIsDaFuture
Producer
Joined: Apr 29, 2007 4:12 PM
Messages: 574
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91%?!?!?!?!? 
It's funny how on almost EVERY other holiday, the box office is always above what it would normally be: Christmas, 4th of July, Memorial Day, Valentine's Day, Thanksgiving, etc. But Halloween just had to be different...
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Nov 01, 2008 7:50 PM
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ashkul88
Mogul
Joined: Jun 10, 2007 3:42 AM
Messages: 1194
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Shryke42 wrote:
It was definitely worth it in the August Ultimates. $60+ million and 9-10 Top 5 points for only $19? That's worth it. Everything else, though....
called it!! 
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Nov 01, 2008 8:57 PM
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silversurfer19
Mogul
Joined: May 4, 2007 5:37 AM
Messages: 2709
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Those numbers really suprised me, but I guess we won't get a true reflection till the end of the weekend, after the kids are fattened up on sugary goodness.
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Nov 01, 2008 9:36 PM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1557
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HSM 3 = Mason
Changeling = Nikke Finke
That's the new weekend question. Which will be number 1?
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Nov 01, 2008 9:43 PM
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silversurfer19
Mogul
Joined: May 4, 2007 5:37 AM
Messages: 2709
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I would not be suprised if Changeling won, and I would have a little party if it did (anything to keep those so-super-excited-teens off the top) but I know not to underestimate the tween market.
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Nov 01, 2008 10:17 PM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1557
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There is a God. . . .From FM
SATURDAY 9:30 p.m. (Pacific): When the studios release their estimates tomorrow, High School Musical: Senior Year (Disney) will confound the so-called "experts" again. I have been told that HSM3 may be up as much as 400% today, from its soft Friday, and that it may reach $13M for the weekend. All of my numbers for the weekend (and everybody's weekend projections) are probably too low.
Halloween lands on a Friday only once every 7 years, so there is not a lot of data to draw from, but "trick or treating" completely wiped out High School Musical 3 and damaged the performance of every movie yesterday. In terms of projecting the weekend, you almost need to throw the day out and treat Saturday and Sunday separately. So, HSM3 grabs $1.7M on Friday (down 90% from last Friday's $16.5M), then Saturday and Sunday come in more in line with expectations. Let's say $6.8M today (down 55% from last Saturday's $15.3M) and $4.4M tomorrow (down 55% from last Sunday's $9.7M). That's a whole lot better than the $9.5M I originally projected.
Here are my revised 3-day projections for the Top 5 movies.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $13M, $3,585 PTA, $59.7M cume
2. Changeling (Universal) - $10.5M, $5,676 PTA, $11.17M cume
3. Saw V (Lionsgate) - $9.1M, $2,951 PTA, $44.82M cume
4. NEW – Zack & Miri Make A Porno (Weinstein) - $8.5M, $3,108 PTA, $8.5M cume
5. NEW – The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) - $4.6M, $1,735 PTA, $4.6M cum
Man, HSM is hard as heck to project and track!
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Nov 02, 2008 3:51 AM
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BarcaRulz
Mogul
Joined: May 13, 2007 4:05 PM
Messages: 1108
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Wow.. Ok.. So we didn't see the HSM Friday coming, then it doubles-up and throws a Saturday sucker punch our way.
Keeping FM out of the equation for a while, this has done extremely well for Disney. They are coming out in full force this month with Bolt on the assembly line as well.
Taking FM into account, i would say for $19 this was an absolute bargain. As for the later leagues, we will have to wait and see.
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Nov 02, 2008 4:07 AM
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synestro
Producer
Joined: Aug 3, 2007 6:07 PM
Messages: 563
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Throw Christmas Days Bedtime Stories into the mix and Disney is going to have an excellent 4th quarter.
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Nov 02, 2008 9:43 AM
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mfrendo
Director
Joined: Jul 8, 2008 12:17 PM
Messages: 478
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Let's not forget people, dropping from 42m to 13m still isn't great...almost a 75% drop...it's just better than we thought Friday...
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Nov 02, 2008 9:56 AM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1557
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Weekend Estimates (EDI and Guru) http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend20.htm
1 High School Musical 3: Senior Year $ 15,035,000
2 Zack and Miri Make a Porno 10,682,000
3 Saw V 10,112,000
4 Changeling 9,407,000
5 The Haunting of Molly Hartley 6,000,000
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