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I totally and completely disagree with #2. $150 million is definately not out of the question, and may even be likely.

Did you get my email about the Tag Team league, JI?

1. Yes Man will be Jim Carrey's long-awaited return to the 100M club!

Entirely possible. Jim can take the utterly ridiculous plots (Bruce Almighty, Liar Liar, Ace Ventura) and make them his own. Jim needs to stick with comedy in general, slapstick or dark. I thought he was fantastic in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. He played so against type, but it was perfect for him.

2. Seven Pounds will be Big Willie's leave of absence from the 100M club!

I'm iffy. I've just seen the trailer and I will admit it is ambiguous, but Big Willie can take a piece of crap and make it polished looking. He's sold us on pretty much every genre (except western). He's sold us on heartbreak, action, drama, sci-fi, and horror.

But every king must fall and he just might with this. Or who knows? Maybe he can sell us ambiguity.

3. Revolutionary Road will be the must-have PTA hit of the season.

I wholeheartedly agree. I myself have been waiting for Kate and Leo to get together again in a film. It's actually nice that they are back together in a story when they are older and more mature.

They really do feel like an old time couple and I think this film will do very well.

4. The Spirit will be Frank Miller's biggest failure!

I disagree. I loved the trailer and I was sold on the concept. People love Frank Miller and this is an all star cast. I think we have another Sin City on our hands.

5. Bride Wars will get some serious coin in the nuptial basket!

Hell yeah! I think people seriously doubt women power at the movies, well, not after seeing what Sex and The City and Mamma Mia! can do. And two golden girls of Hollywood in the same movie will make this a big January hit. Definitely another 27 dresses coming our way.

ps. congrats to Chugs for making some solidly verifiable predictions this time around.. here's the breakdown:

Yes Man > $100M
Seven Pounds < $100M
Revolution Road = highest PTA score
The Spirit < $75M
Bride Wars = uh... i guess this one's a bit vague

I'll check it tomorrow, wross. I've got to go to bed now.

To NSpannaus:

I would say that anything above 60 million for Bride Wars is a celebrated success considering the January release. 27 Dresses did about 75 million I think.

I think that's fair. January expectations usually go way down so $60 mil would be solid.

As for The Spirit, it's a story that few people want to sit down and listen to and that's the bottom line when it comes to movie ticket sales. It reminds me of Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. Add the crowded week-ends of December 19th and 25th where many movies are significantly more attractive - and there is little left when it comes to hope.

A March release would have been smarter (or April) - but they have Watchmen coming up so maybe they don't want to muddy the waters.

chugsthemonkey wrote:

As for The Spirit, it's a story that few people want to sit down and listen to and that's the bottom line when it comes to movie ticket sales. It reminds me of Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. Add the crowded week-ends of December 19th and 25th where many movies are significantly more attractive - and there is little left when it comes to hope.

A March release would have been smarter (or April) - but they have Watchmen coming up so maybe they don't want to muddy the waters.

While i do agree that it could do better in a different release slot, March is out of the option IMO.

That of course could have something to do with a little known totally unhyped film coming out then called Watchmen.. Have you heard about it?

I agree with you on The Spirit, Chugs. It is defintely not a holiday movie. Not with the loving my mother lines and the horrendously ugly costume design. I think The Punisher: War Zone would be a better pick then this one. Here are my projections.

0 Top 5
0 PTA
24 M
4.5 IMDB

It probably would do much better if it opened somewhere else, but then again, ya can't hide a bad movie!

Why do you all think that Punisher: War Zone will fare better than The Spirit? Punisher: War Zone looks somewhat like a disaster compared to the first while The Spirit could actually be a really good film. I'd also say that The Spirit could manage a 7.5 IMDb. I mean if crap like Lucky Number Slevin can manage a rating near 8, then The Spirit can manage at least a 7.

Well, I found Lucky Number Slevin as a sub par film as well. It was mostly Lucy Lui's character and the very craptacular first 30 minutes but the second half is actually pretty decent. Not worth an 8 mind you.

The Punisher will fare better by default because it is the only e release movie opening in it's weekend. um Yeah, if the Spirit gets a 7.5 then I'll change my name of Frank Miller's Cockboy. Seriously, have you seen the Comic-con footage? If you haven't it's too late now, the studio has been tearing down that disasterpiece before the negative buzz becomes overwhelming. The only other movie with worse buzz coming out in the Holiday season is Valkryie.

Bangkok Dangerous also was the only film that opened in its respective weekend too and look how that did. Also, will people accept Ray Stevenson as The Punisher or as a low-rent Thomas Jane wannabe? And remember than Punisher: War Zone has also had its share of bad buzz (such as the late firing then re-hiring of the director and the fight over final cut).

Meanwhile, The Spirit should manage more than $24 million. Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem, the film that someone else compared it to, made $40 million at the box office. Also with the PG-13, it will make more than that.

Yeah Bangkok sucked but it got 5 points. I didn't take it on any slate. But those are more top 5 then the Spirit is going to get.

Have you guys seen the Punisher red band trailer? Check it out on youtube. The quality is crap, but the movie just looks pulverizing, in the most badass way possible.

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