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J.I. wrote:

First of all, there is a huge difference between Americans and Yankees. NEVER call us Yankees again (sorry if I offended anybody). Second, WE'RE PROUD WE DON'T CARE ABOUT SOCCER.

Well J.I. I'm assuming you are American (well I'm pretty sure you are, since I'm facing you in the Fantalympics), you gotta know almost everyone who isn't American calls you guys "Yanks" - it's not a derogatory term at all, I'm sure. It does insinuate some sort of arrogance on your part, but nothing you Yanks (there it is again) can't handle, I'm sure

. I'm pretty sure I said Yanks not Yankees. I know that refers to the baseball team.

Oh and J.I., the rest of the world is proud of the fact that that we don't care about your version of "football" - if you can even call it "football". Seriously no one in the world cares about American Football other than you guys, and we never will. To be honest, Australians generally couldn't care less about football/soccer either (rugby/Australian Rules are the majority sports here), but at least we respect the football/soccer as a significant sport in the world, and it is definitely expanding down here as well. However, we (along with the rest of the world) couldn't give two tosses about American football. I mean, why the heck is it called a "touchdown" if you don't even touch the ball down? Anyway, I digress...

J.I wrote:

annyonggob888 wrote:

Venus is pretty much a part-time tennis player along with her sister, so basically either of them will never get to #1 again, because they just don't play enough.
Didn't they just play each other in the Wimbeldon?

Now tennis is my choice of sport. Serena and Venus are brilliant tennis players, and yes they did just face each other in the Wimbledon final. But the fact of the matter is they don't play anywhere near a full load of tournaments to be ranked right at the top of women's tennis. So hence, part-time tennis players. They really have other commitments like fashion design and whatnot, so they only play the big tournaments which doesn't allow them to gain enough ranking points to get to #1.

Whoops, off on a tangent again...

On a more relevant note, I'm putting my money on ash for the Ultimate and geez for the Box Office.

annyonggob888 wrote:

J.I. wrote:

First of all, there is a huge difference between Americans and Yankees. NEVER call us Yankees again (sorry if I offended anybody). Second, WE'RE PROUD WE DON'T CARE ABOUT SOCCER.

Well J.I. I'm assuming you are American (well I'm pretty sure you are, since I'm facing you in the Fantalympics), you gotta know almost everyone who isn't American calls you guys "Yanks" - it's not a derogatory term at all, I'm sure. It does insinuate some sort of arrogance on your part, but nothing you Yanks (there it is again) can't handle, I'm sure . I'm pretty sure I said Yanks not Yankees. I know that refers to the baseball team.

Yeah, here, Yankees (or Yanks I guess) refers to those Northerners. And people from the North and the South couldn't be more different.

Oh and J.I., the rest of the world is proud of the fact that that we don't care about your version of "football" - if you can even call it "football". Seriously no one in the world cares about American Football other than you guys, and we never will. To be honest, Australians generally couldn't care less about football/soccer either (rugby/Australian Rules are the majority sports here), but at least we respect the football/soccer as a significant sport in the world, and it is definitely expanding down here as well. However, we (along with the rest of the world) couldn't give two tosses about American football. I mean, why the heck is it called a "touchdown" if you don't even touch the ball down? Anyway, I digress...

Shut up.

J.I. wrote:

annyonggob888 wrote:

Venus is pretty much a part-time tennis player along with her sister, so basically either of them will never get to #1 again, because they just don't play enough.
Didn't they just play each other in the Wimbeldon?

well, the women's final doesn't count, i'm sure anny was talking about the category they're actually supposed to play in - the Men's Draw, or Mixed Doubles....

actually, what category can a man and a horse play in??

ashkul88 wrote:

J.I. wrote:

annyonggob888 wrote:

Venus is pretty much a part-time tennis player along with her sister, so basically either of them will never get to #1 again, because they just don't play enough.
Didn't they just play each other in the Wimbeldon?

well, the women's final doesn't count, i'm sure anny was talking about the category they're actually supposed to play in - the Men's Draw, or Mixed Doubles....

actually, what category can a man and a horse play in??

I've always thought the Williams sisters vs. Sara Jessica Parker and Ruud Van Nistelrooy would make a wonderful mixed doubles match..

geezer9687 wrote:

I really, Really want this win. Come on TDK!! Be HUGE!! I still say about 210 million in its first 10 days will do it. And if it opens with 125 million, I have no doubt it can get there.

I'm hoping TDK is an amazing movie - got my personal expectations way raised on that one - but I think you're dreaming. The fastest-grossing movie in history (Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest) hit 214 million in 8 days, and that was just ridiculous (the speed of moneymaking, not the movie itself, which I liked). Transformers took 12 days plus a Monday sneak preview to hit 200 million last year. And both of those were being sold to family audiences more than this Batman is.

I have no doubt the movie will be huge over a long and successful run, but 10 days is 10 days. I'd guess somewhere between 175 and 185, which is low enough to keep a few players still in the HY game depending on how well Wall-E, Hancock and Hellboy hold up. Alyson, BrentBaines, the back-loaded slates of JackO and Keyser Soze... I'm not yet buying that this is a two-man race.

Although I'm 100% confident that I am out like Sir Elton John.

Just as long as Hancock follows T3 at a minimum, I have a tiny chance. I also kinda forgot the extra 40+ mill that I have to make up from Iron Man with the Hancock/Wall-E combo. And I still need HBII to overachieve and not completely disappear after TDK opens. It won't be before TDK opens until I'll see some real progress.

You do know that I also have Hellboy 2 right JackO? If it doesn't disappear, it helps me as well and will make it harder for you to chase me down. And mutard people are seriously projecting 125 million OW. If it does that you can't expect its second weekend to be less than 60. You just can't. Thats 185 on the weekends alone, and the 4 weekdays, at a minimum should nab me 40 million. Thats 225 million right there. If you don't think TDK can open that high then that's your opinion. I however, believe that it can.

geezer9687 wrote:

You do know that I also have Hellboy 2 right JackO? If it doesn't disappear, it helps me as well and will make it harder for you to chase me down. And mutard people are seriously projecting 125 million OW. If it does that you can't expect its second weekend to be less than 60. You just can't. Thats 185 on the weekends alone, and the 4 weekdays, at a minimum should nab me 40 million. Thats 225 million right there. If you don't think TDK can open that high then that's your opinion. I however, believe that it can.

Granted, it's my opinion, but you're counting on a near-record opening at 125 million. 3rd biggest opening of all time? Possible, sure, but not something the experts can accurately project, no matter who's saying 125 million.

Admittedly, the hype is monumentally larger this time around, and The Joker is a much more marketable villain than The Scarecrow or Ras-al-Ghul, but you know where Batman Begins was after two weekends? 122 million.

Long movie (fewer showings per day), dark movie, I dunno... I have no doubt it will be big, and again, I really want it to be great, but I wouldn't count on it being "Biggest of All Time" big.

With a movie like TDK, I don't know if running time will have too much impact on its OW. Remember POTC2 had a run time of 2hr 31m, and its OW was $135m, and Spider-Man 3 had a run time of 2hr 20m, and that raked in $151m OW. If TDK is 2hr 30m long, I see no reason why it can't get close to those figures projected.

It seems I did goof on the up-to-the-weekend standings in the cumulative Ultimate HY tournament. anny is NOT in 1st place overall, as I previously averred. Here are the actual standings:

1. $3,172,586,292 - Kompressr
2. $3,091,272,795 - Chienfantome
3. $3,086,551,070 - mutard7
4. $3,063,602,191 - BrentBaines
5. $3,063,209,047 - annyonggob888
6. $3,041,110,733 - geezer9687
7. $2,966,132,441 - Alyson
8. $2,880,287,870 - J.I.
9. $2,870,488,510 - Teh_Sham
10. $2,861,551,296 - codeslinger
11. $2,861,154,622 - SuperShaan
12. $2,834,997,641 - pulpclub
13. $2,830,747,175 - Keyser Soze
14. $2,778,100,868 - undeadmonkey
15. $2,758,589,770 - jas_8382
16. $2,705,748,990 - JackO
17. $2,610,657,779 - lainiediamond
18. $2,560,676,535 - i_valero
19. $2,559,425,208 - becs

So it would seem that if Kompressr holds on for victory in Round Five, he will be the champion in both word AND deed.

Should still be close, though.

A longer movie just means that if the studio (or theater) were hoping for 5 screenings a day but can only fit 3 because of the runtime, they'll just book a second print and get 6.

silversurfer19 wrote:

With a movie like TDK, I don't know if running time will have too much impact on its OW. Remember POTC2 had a run time of 2hr 31m, and its OW was $135m, and Spider-Man 3 had a run time of 2hr 20m, and that raked in $151m OW. If TDK is 2hr 30m long, I see no reason why it can't get close to those figures projected.

Good call. I stand corrected on the running time argument. But I still think the darkness is a factor. Regardless of actual movie content, POTC2 and Spider-Man 3 were marketed kid/family-friendly. I'm pretty sure that even seeing a Joker one-sheet would give my 6-year-old nightmares.

I'd still totally take the movie in Ultimates - it looks fantastic, which bodes well for user ratings and a long run in the Top 5 - but I think hype is overtaking reason on the box office prospects.

mutard7 wrote:

Admittedly, the hype is monumentally larger this time around, and The Joker is a much more marketable villain than The Scarecrow or Ras-al-Ghul, but you know where Batman Begins was after two weekends? 122 million.

I really don't think you can compare the two. Batman Begins relied on word of mouth to get to its big numbers. Most people wrote of the Batman Franchise. I'm surprised it made that much in its first 10 days. I know I didn't see it within 10 days. I really had to be convinced not to wait til the DVD. Word of mouth did that for me. I saw it, and it was awesome.

The Dark Knight does not have to worry about this. It has the reputation that Batman Begins built in theaters and on DVD. It has a much better and more recognizeable villain in the Joker. People have been anticipating this from the closing scene of "Begins." The advertising is everywhere! This would all be good for about 100 million opening, equaling Iron Man. Add the tragedy of the loss of Heath Ledger, that this is his last film, and you will get people rushing out to see it that may not have. It will be MASSIVE right out of the gate. It will be the biggest movie of the year. Combine this with the great reviews and the sure to be positive word of mouth, and its second weekend shouldn't see a very big drop.

All of this said, for your boy to beat out Kompressr, he also needs this to be huge. He needs it to be huge, and he needs Hancock and WALL-E to make like 250 million more to beat the two of us. I can't see this happening. Not at all.

Let me start by agreeing with geez that you really can't compare BB and TDK because even though BB made a significant dent in the BO, it's real success was achieved on DVD. Out of the 12 friends of mine in the room with me at the moment, only 3 saw it in theaters, 8 on DVD and 1 hasn't heard about it, but they're all getting tix with me to watch TDK on OW!! So that's that then!!

geezer9687 wrote:

The advertising is everywhere!

This was actually the main point of my post. I was going to start a new thread but didn't think it was totally warranted, so I roamed about the forums looking for an appropriate segway....and voila!!

I just wanted to point out the same thing, that the advertising is everywhere and the TV Spots are finally here en masse!!

I watched about 3 hours of TV last night and on 4 different channels, I ran across anywhere from 15-20 spots for TDK. And I don't live in the US, but in Canada!! The marketing machine is really outrageously massive for this movie, and I'm feeling as though I'm getting swept up in the tidal wave of people who are coming around to the idea that there's no way in hell that this movie can open to less than $100-120 mil. and if I were to pick a number, I'd go for $120-130 mil and possibly higher as the release date approaches.

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