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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 1:19 PM
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aquamann2001
Key Film Loader
Joined: Apr 22, 2007 2:29 PM
Messages: 48
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Will Religulous or other midweek releases make it into the league"? When are they supposed to be up?
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 1:43 PM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1533
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I have no idea but some of those projections for December are Religulous!
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 2:01 PM
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BanksIsDaFuture
Producer
Joined: Apr 29, 2007 4:12 PM
Messages: 566
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I don't think Religulous matters anyway. It's going into over 500 theaters this weekend according to Box Office Mojo.
Aquamann, which ones do you think are off? Most sound pretty good to me.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 3:12 PM
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Buscemi
Mogul
Joined: Aug 30, 2007 11:06 AM
Messages: 2541
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Benjamin Button and Seven Pounds are too high. Bedtime Stories and Yes Man aren't high enough. Hurricane Season and Shanghai are too low (especially Shanghai, for John Cusack and Gong Li have had hits and the director's last film made over $70 million).
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 3:29 PM
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Thomassi87
Production Assistant
Joined: May 19, 2007 4:08 PM
Messages: 132
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Where do you guys see the projections for december? I can only see the projections for september.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 4:43 PM
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silversurfer19
Mogul
Joined: May 4, 2007 5:37 AM
Messages: 2689
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I think Valkyrie, The Brothers Bloom and The Wrestler are too low.
And Thomassi, to see the projections, click on the upcoming and projections page, then click on the december tab, it will bring up all the latest projections.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 5:02 PM
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Buscemi
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Joined: Aug 30, 2007 11:06 AM
Messages: 2541
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Valkyrie and The Brothers Bloom both look like flops. Valkyrie had a horrible teaser trailer, too much negative press and an online ad that I saw made it look too much like Ocean's Eleven. If that's the way the film is going to be promoted, expect a major disaster.
Meanwhile, The Brothers Bloom's trailer takes advantage of showing Rian Johnson's desperate attempts at looking hip and cool instead of actually telling a story. That and it looks like a bad Wes Anderson film. Apparently this is Summit's big Oscar film (though I believe that they should be using Kathryn Bigelow's comeback film The Hurt Locker instead) but I see the reviews being horrible and as a result, the film won't make it past a limited release.
But I agree that The Wrestler will be a hit. As long as Fox knows how to promote it and doesn't make the mistakes that Sony made with Redbelt back in May.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 5:11 PM
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silversurfer19
Mogul
Joined: May 4, 2007 5:37 AM
Messages: 2689
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I totally disagree with you there Boushh, I think Valkyrie, no matter how much bad press, will do well off of the back of Singer and Cruise. It actually looks very good as well. I think it can manage something in the $60m range. I think The Brothers Bloom looks great, and I think enough is provided of the story to garner interest in the film. I'll be there OW whenever it arrives in NZ. It should manage $25m by my predictions.
The Wrestler is Oscar quality, it will get the royal treatment and be released very cleverly and should make it a very big hit.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 5:24 PM
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thswrestler160
Key Film Loader
Joined: Mar 14, 2008 8:36 PM
Messages: 44
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does no one else think that the projection for the spirit is a little off? i know its no sin city but that opened to 29 million in april this one has christmas
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 5:33 PM
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JackO
Mogul
Joined: Sep 4, 2007 7:14 PM
Messages: 1533
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Yeah, The Spirit's projection is off. It's is WAY too high.
Alien Versus Predator: Requiem, Water Horse: Legend of the Deep, Sweeney Todd, Walk Hard, The Good Shepherd, Rocky Balboa, We Are Marshall, Cheaper By The Dozen 2, Wolf Creek, The Ringer, Munich, Rumor Has it, and The Wild Thornberry's all had Christmas release dates. They still bombed hard.
Anyways, The Brothers Bloom is WAY off. It has a chance for a Bucket List type of run.
Defiance is WAY too high.
Tale of Despereaux might be a copy cat but 45 M is way too small.
Ben Button is too high
Seven Pounds is little bit too high
Beware of The Day The Earth Stood Still in Ultimate leagues . . . .
Doubt and Revolutionary Road are way too low.
and I'll keep some of my other opinions quiet. Don't want to give away the game.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 29, 2008 6:02 PM
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Buscemi
Mogul
Joined: Aug 30, 2007 11:06 AM
Messages: 2541
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JackO, Rocky Balboa made $80 million on a $20 million budget and it resurrected Stallone's career. Hardly a flop.
Cheaper By The Dozen 2 wasn't a flop either. Didn't reach the first's total but it did fine box office.
Meanwhile, The Brothers Bloom is not like The Bucket List. In fact, it doesn't even appeal to the audience that The Bucket List appealed to. It is basically Ocean's Eleven's bastard stepchild directed by a hack trying to emulate the Wes Anderson feel.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 30, 2008 8:27 AM
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transformers2
Mogul
Joined: Apr 7, 2007 6:48 AM
Messages: 1587
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The Day Earth Stood Still,Defiance and Ben Button ARE WAY TOO HIGH
Seven Pounds is just about right
Yes Man,The Wrestler, Valkyrie are too low. Also Valkyrie's trailer got a very good reaction at the showing of Eagle Eye i went to cant same say The Sam For Ben Button which i myself think looks awful but Valkyrie looks intersting. in an unrealted note the showing of Eagle Eye i went to had by far the strangest block of trailers i have ever seen before a film before.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 30, 2008 8:37 AM
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Buscemi
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Joined: Aug 30, 2007 11:06 AM
Messages: 2541
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I had a strange lineup of trailers at my showing too. I expected the Quantum Of Solace and Transformers 2 trailers and instead got The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button, Pride and Glory, Bedtime Stories (the new Adam Sandler film), The Soloist and Max Payne. Only Bedtime Stories got a reaction.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 30, 2008 8:42 AM
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geezer9687
Mogul
Joined: Jun 5, 2007 10:45 PM
Messages: 1896
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I thought valkyrie got pushed back to next summer? Oh well, I must be mistaken. Either way, 26 million is way too low. It was one of my top 10 films of the year in anticipation at the beginning of the year. I can't wait for it. I think the trailer looks awesome. That prediction just shocks me.
I also think TDTESS is about right. It has every oportunity to own the month with Harry Potter out of the way. If I had known Harry Potter wasn't going to be there, I definitely would have chosen it for the Super Contest thingy.
Ben Button is way too high.
The Spirit is too low, it will get about 75-80.
And you guys are totally right. That prediction of $0 for the Wrestler seems a bit low to me too.
Will Smith doesn't make films of less than 150 million.
And in conclusion, FM's projections have been out of whack for nearly a year now. Pay them no mind. They had Eagle Eye at 35 million total... I mean come on.
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![[Post New]](/forum/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) Sep 30, 2008 9:22 AM
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transformers2
Mogul
Joined: Apr 7, 2007 6:48 AM
Messages: 1587
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I had a much stranger set
Ben Button
Valykrie
Sex Drive
Quantam Of Solace
Changeling
The Soloist
Rock N Rolla
The Spirit
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