My Studios

Hollywood Elsewhere:

The Dark Knight will pull in north of $120 million this coming weekend -- it may even hit $130 million. Update: Okay, I was being too conservative. It may hit $150 million, but forget anything over that. The tracking -- 97 general, 68 definite and 44 first choice -- tells the tale. Mamma Mia! is running at 84, 28 and 14....$25 to $30 million, maybe more. Space Chimps are Dead Chimps -- 54, 17 and 2.

Stepbrothers (opening 7.25) is 78, 35 and 6...but consicousness is low on this thing because of the Batman film. Give it time to build and breathe. X-Files: I Want To Believe (7.25) is running at 71, 26 and 4. The Rocker (Fox) is looking pretty bad at 17, 11 and 0. The Mummy (8.1) is at 87, 38 and 5...not bad, getting there. Kevin Costner's Swing Vote is running at 43, 16 and 1...nothing yet, work to do.

Just thought I'd post this. It's interesting that he is highly doubtful that TDK will top $150M. MM looks very strong considering the Bat overload. Step Bros and XFiles seem to be neck and neck at this point, but I'll give it to XFiles just because SB is rated 'R'.

The Dark Knight it tracking great. On the "What is you're top choice to see this weekend" poll on BOM, The Dark Knight has 88.1%. Spider-Man 3 only had 84% and it came out in a terrible market. The weekend before didn't even have any movie make $10 million. Also 78.9% of people on BOM say they will see it on opening weekend. Compare that to 65.9% for Spider-Man 3, 65.1% for Pirates 3's opening 4 1/2 days, 62.7% for Transformers' opening 6 1/2 days, and 67.9% for Indiana Jones' first 5 days.

Mamma Mia! should do OK, but will be hurt on opening weekend by The Dark Knight. Space Chimps definately wouldn't be tracking good. The movie is entirely for kids. It should do $5 million opening weekend.

I don't wanna get too excited about TDK yet, so I'll stick with $120m OW and I will still be very pleased with that outcome. Any better is just the icing on the cake. If Mama Mia doesn't make $30m OW then it will need some seriously good legs to top $100m. I am considering adding Space Chimps to my bankrupts slate.

The Mummy looks very strong too considering there is still a few weeks until its release. I think X Files will beat out Step Bros too, mainly because of the R rating. I wouldn't be suprised to see a few kids buying X Files tickets to get into Step Bros.

TDK will have to be the King of '08, i like the 150 figure but even if it only makes it to 130M in the OW it doesn't matter, TDK will be massive! The numbers for the Mummy look pretty good, i wonder how it'll compete with Tropic Thunder and The Pineapple Express. My guess is that people will go out and watch TDK, get even more pumped for the Mummy 3, just because its another sequel and then choose one of the 2 comedies. In saying that- Mummy 3 just mite pull in 160-180M, Tropic Thunder will rake in 180-210M and the Pineapple Express should reach 110-120M.

But hey im just guessing...

I don't see $200m for Tropic Thunder I'm afraid Ron. It's R rated, and furthermore, I just don't think it's gonna be as big as many of us hope it will. I see $150m tops.

im sorry but i really dont know what those numbers mean...how do the numbers for the Mummy and Stepbrothers compare to other movies at the same point that already came out?

I don't think Tropic Thunder will even hit $100 million. With R-rated comedies, it seems that the lower concept titles (such as Superbad and Knocked Up) do better than higher concept titles (such as Walk Hard). If it were PG-13, box office would be huge but college-age audiences want cheap laughs and a small plotline. Tropic Thunder is just too much for the target audience.

Prediction:
22 3-day/30 5-day/80 finish

Semi-Pro was tracking good too. I don't trust the numbers for Step Brothers. Ferrell's fans might be interested but they may not be able to go. . .again. Anyways, I'm kind of warming up to Tropic Thunder after reading some early reviews of it. It sounds a lot like Walk Hard except for action movies. I'm not so sure if that equals hit, but I can no longer bet against it as strongly as I used too. And the only place you are seeing my TDK predict is on the Derby game. I ain't touching it with a forty-foot pole.

I can't see Tropic Thunder passing $100 million either. Pineapple Express may have an outside shot, but I don't know if it's Superbad-funny or just Forgetting Sarah Marshall-funny.

Damn, I really didn't think The Dark Knight could break $150 million this weekend, I really should've grabbed it in all my leagues. I was too scared of that price tag though.

So Tropic wont even reach 100M you think? So im guessing none of you want to see Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jnr together. That R rating, i did not see, but even so, i believe it will get 100M easy

Ron_Burgundy wrote:

So Tropic wont even reach 100M you think? So im guessing none of you want to see Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jnr together. That R rating, i did not see, but even so, i believe it will get 100M easy

I've been wanting to see TT ever since it was announced, but the marketing is terrible for it. They only have one trailer playing in theaters and it's terribly unfunny. The posters/standees are nothing special, alot of people don't even know what it is when they pass the standee at my theater.

I can see them releasing a new trailer with Step-Brothers though. I'm hoping their marketing hops into overdrive after TDK has passed.

I agree that the advertising hasn't been great. Though I like the Downey Jr. character poster (I've used it as a Facebook profile photo), the tagline (Get Some) is horrible. That tagline makes it sound like a sex comedy (Get Some was also the working title for Never Back Down but was not surprisingly changed before opening). And audiences are likely going to hate it when they see it's a satire rather than the Judd Apatow-style comedy they are used to seeing. Satires on Hollywood just don't do well.

In short: Star Wars is probably going to kill it. Especially since fanboys and children outnumber college-age students who've never seen The Player or Walk Hard or know about the history of films like Apocalypse Now, Heaven's Gate or Fitzcarraldo.

Yeah, its true that the Clone Wars will be big, better than the 75M or whatever FM has given it. If TT has been moved to Wednesday, it will have a great OW, and what better comedies are there after that?

I think Pineapple Express will be a hit. I think it can hit Superbad numbers. To me it looks like a Quentin Tarantino Superbad stoner buddy comedy infusion.

Tropic Thunder is tricky. I honestly think that word of mouth will be it's friend. I think people will go see it and then tell others to check it out. Kind of like Little Miss Sunshine.

I know absolutely nothing about Clone Wars. I know there are buttloads of Star Wars fans out there and anything attached to that does well, good or bad.

TDK and Mamma Mia = great counter programming.

OT: Anyone interested in me writing a female stoner comedy? Sound good? Seems being a stoner is the way to go these days.

I'd pay to see that.

Actually, I had a similar idea for a film like that. The title is All-Time High, a reference to Rita Coolidge's song (the theme from Octopussy) and what marijuana does. You can take the title if you want.

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